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Xarabank survey shows even split on EU membership

A new survey conducted by popular television programme Xarabank reveals a sway in public opinion toward the concept of EU membership, with those who have decided on the issue being split almost equally down the middle.

The results of the survey were publicised on Friday’s programme, which also featured a telephone link-up with Dr Arnold Cassola, Secretary General for the European Federation of Green Parties. Dr Cassola had in his possession the rough draft of the next progress report on Malta’s membership bid, which will be published in October. Ursola Stenzel, European Parliament rapporteur on Malta, is drawing up the report.

Dr Cassola explained how the report states that, while progress toward membership is for the most part positive, the EU to date sees only two hurdles on Malta’s track toward full membership.

The report first makes note of the well-known fact of the polemic situation over EU membership that exists between the present administration and the opposition.

Secondly, the report refers to the fact that no steps forward have been taken in the area of agriculture and that negligence in this area could very well prove problematic in the future.

The report adds that the EU is willing to help out in this regard, but the government must first present an action plan on how it intends to tackle the sector’s issues.

The survey
The latest survey was carried out on 12 and 13 June and asked some 1,200 respondents: ‘If a referendum on EU membership were held tomorrow, how would you vote?’ 39.6 per cent of respondents answered that they would vote for membership, 39.7 per cent would prefer to decline from membership while 20.7 per cent replied that they were still undecided.

The result shows that there is still a good deal of ground to cover in campaigning on this issue, with some 20 per cent of the electorate apparently still in limbo.

However, when comparing these results with surveys carried out in February and May it must be noted that those favouring the EU membership option for Malta’s future are on the upswing, while those against are declining in number.

Notably, those undecided have decreased by 9.4 per cent between February and June, with the majority of those swaying toward membership, with those in favour increasing by 8.2 per cent over the same time frame.

More women in favour of membership
Meanwhile, after eliminating the undecided factor, the June survey found females more in favour of membership, with 53.3 per cent responding in the affirmative, while 53.2 per cent of males stated that they would not favour the pro-EU movements with their vote.

One also finds interesting results when the results are broken down into age groups. After eliminating the undecided faction, the youngest (18–24) and the oldest (65 and over) age groups in Maltese society were those most distinctly in favour – with respective ‘yes’ votes of 53.3 per cent and 59.5 per cent.

Meanwhile, those predominantly favouring a ‘no’ vote were the 25–44 and 45–64 age groups, with respective ‘no’ votes of 52.3 per cent and 53.23 per cent.

When comparing the results of age groups, however, one finds a very fluid situation, with only the 22–44 age group standing firm in their conviction against membership, while the largest number of undecided are those found within the 18–24 age group – at 27.5 per cent.

Switzerland in the Med
Meanwhile, in a completely separate question, Xarabank asked respondents whether they agreed with the proposal that Malta should become a ‘Switzerland in the Mediterranean’ – to which 39.1 per cent answered ‘yes’, 38.5 per cent said ‘no’ while 22.4 per cent were undecided. Eliminating the undecided factor, the results show 50.4 per cent in favour of the proposal championed by the Labour Party and 49.36 per cent against.

Contrasting with the question on membership, 55.3 per cent of males were found to be in favour of the Switzerland in the Med option, while 54.3 per cent of females were against. According to the survey results, it appears that more women are in favour of full EU membership, while the majority of men stand in favour of the Switzerland in the Med alternative.

Interestingly, looking at the age group breakdown for this question, the 65 and over age group is the only one with a majority in favour of the Switzerland in the Med option, while this age group was also found to be in favour of EU membership.

Meanwhile, those replying ‘don’t know’ to the Switzerland in the Med option outweigh those undecided on the membership option by a difference of 1.7 per cent.

However, 21.6 per cent of those who voted in favour of the Swiss option also said ‘yes’ to membership, 68.1 per cent of those voting no to the Swiss option would vote ‘yes’ in a referendum. 16.9 per cent of the ‘don’t knows’ would vote ‘yes’ in a membership referendum. See chart for full breakdown.