Countdown to local council elections as MLP and PN take up battle positions
Individual localities hold key to national mood

By Kurt Sansone

The next round of local elections to be held on 9 March is interesting on a number of counts, not least because it may well be the last round of local elections before the next general election and a measure of the political parties’ strength.

With a third of the population eligible to vote, the results could give an indication of the general feeling throughout the country even though a number of factors need to be taken into consideration. This group of localities is considered to be pro-Labour because the largest localities are predominantly Labour party strongholds.

But the largest single factor that could tip the final balance is the amount of people who decide not to go out and vote. With an average abstention of around 30 per cent for local council elections and with a difference of just over 1,000 votes between them, the party which manages to convince an additional few hundred people to go out and vote over its rival might tip the scales in its favour. Although no proper analysis has ever been made of the people who do not vote the probability is that they are equally divided between PN and MLP supporters.

The coming elections are the first round of local elections where an accurate comparison can be made with the results obtained in the same localities three years ago. In 1999, still reeling from a dramatic general election defeat, the Labour party had presented official candidates for the first time in local elections.

The final results saw the Labour party gather 46 per cent of the vote. And taking into consideration only those localities where an election was held, the MLP elected 61 councillors enjoying a majority in 10 localities.

On the other hand the Nationalist party had obtained a relative majority of 48.4 per cent and elected 63 councillors. The Nationalist party enjoyed a majority in 10 localities.

The 1999 result confirmed the Nationalist party’s wave of support following the 1998 general election result even though the Labour party had interpreted the result as a loss of support for the PN. Even if the MLP’s thesis was correct, the support certainly did not swing their way because it went towards the 15 independent candidates, who garnered 5.6 per cent of the vote.

The independents might be less of a determining factor in the forthcoming elections owing to the increased polarisation and the Labour party’s better preparation for the electoral campaign.

This time around only seven independent candidates are contesting in contrast to the 15 in 1999. Three years ago the independents elected three councillors but there is little hope that any of them will be elected this year.
In 1999 the elected independents held the balance in one locality - Pembroke - where the Nationalist and Labour parties elected two councillors each with an independent candidate taking the remaining seat.

Another consideration this year is Alternattiva Demokartika’s renewed participation in local elections after a break of almost five years. The Green party is fielding four candidates to contest the Mellieha, St Paul’s Bay, Pembroke and St Julian’s localities.

The fact that AD is not participating in all the localities will make it difficult to judge the party’s strength on a wider basis. But the chosen localities are all Nationalist party strongholds and could indicate the Green party’s electoral strategy to target the so called ‘Nationalist’ districts in the general election.

An analysis of AD’s electoral results shows that the party has marginal stronger support in the central and northern districts. In the past the party has elected local councillors in Sliema, Swieqi, Pembroke, Birkirkara, Balzan, Attard and Hamrun, with Fgura being the only locality in the south to elect an AD councillor.

The Nationalist party will be particularly keen to watch AD’s performance because any percentage gained by the Greens would dent the PN’s overall result.

But the single most interesting electoral battle is expected to be Zebbug, with both parties admitting that it is a key locality for them. In 1999 the MLP carried the council winning just 82 votes more than the Nationalist party. The final result read 50.8 per cent for the MLP and 49.2 per cent for the PN. The Labour party elected five councillors against the PN’s four. Zebbug is among the top three largest localities in this round and is considered to be a very good indicator of the national mood by electoral gurus.

St Paul’s Bay will for the first time elect nine councillors instead of seven and being the PN’s strongest council among the top three largest, it will be interesting to watch the final results given the Green party’s candidature. In 1999 the Nationalist party got 60.2 per cent, the Labour party obtained 27.1 per cent and independent candidates managed 12.7 per cent. An independent candidate will also be contesting this year.

The other large locality is Zejtun, undoubtedly a Labour party stronghold. In 1999 the Labour party elected six councillors obtaining 68.2 per cent of the vote. The Nationalist party got the remaining three seats and 30.3 per cent of the vote.

This locality could give an indication of whether the PN has lost the four per cent swing in its favour obtained during the 1998 general election in the third electoral district. The Nationalist party had done very well in the second and third districts, which are traditional Labour strongholds.

Another keen electoral battle is expected in Pembroke where the share of votes was almost divided equally between PN, MLP and independent candidates in the 1999 local elections. The Nationalist party had managed 32 per cent of the vote, the MLP 35.8 per cent and independents 32.2 per cent.

This year Pembroke will see Alternattiva Demokratika contesting instead of the independent candidates. In 1994 AD had elected a councillor with the highest number of votes and although the party stands a chance of getting a seat it is unlikely it will run away with the vote.

In 1999 no elections were held in the Gozitan villages of Fontana and Ghasri because the number of candidates had equalled the number of councillors. This year there is no election in Fontana with four PN candidates and one from the MLP becoming the first councillors to take their post.