News • 5 January 2003

PN gambles on local elections as referendum date looms

By Kurt Sansone

Valletta - Cabinet will have a tall order on its agenda tomorrow and is expected to discuss the date for a referendum on EU membership and decide on whether to hold the local council elections, which are due on 8 March.

The decision to postpone the local elections has to be taken before 20 January when by law the President’s writ is issued. However, on Friday the Prime Minister gave a very strong hint that he intends going ahead with the local elections.

The elections to be held in 23 localities will see one third of the electorate going to the polls. They could serve as a barometer for the electorate’s mood even if localised issues unrelated to national concerns tend to influence the vote.

However, judging by the trend witnessed over the last three years local elections are a bad omen for the Nationalist Party and the decision to go ahead with the forthcoming March elections is a big gamble for them. It won’t be easy for the Prime Minister to convince his cabinet to tow the line and go ahead with the March elections.

Last year the Labour Party emerged victorious at the polls with a clear majority of 52 per cent. Even if the majority of localities were Labour-leaning the victory was not one that could be ignored. It gave a clear signal that the Mintoff factor was no longer a nuisance for the Labour Party and that Labourites were shedding their scepticism on local elections.

This year the Nationalist Party may gamble on the fact that the largest localities in the forthcoming group of elections are Nationalist-leaning comprising Birkirkara, Sliema, Naxxar and Rabat (Malta).

Tomorrow cabinet will have to weigh all these options before deciding on whether to forgo the local elections. However, all depends on the Prime Minister’s decision when to hold the referendum.

The Parliamentary debate on the EU negotiated package will be held on Monday 13 January when Parliament reconvenes after the Christmas recess.

The debate will probably drag on for at least three sittings and is expected to end with a vote on a resolution paving the way for the referendum.

Until now the indications are that 22 February is the likely date for the referendum.

Yesterday, when addressing a reception organised by the Nationalist Party Dr Fenech Adami said that he had to give weight to the Opposition’s views before deciding on a date. The Prime Minister is trying to ward off a Labour Party boycott by projecting the referendum as a national issue that transgresses party lines.

However, the Prime Minister has another important consideration to make when deciding on the referendum date and that is whether the electorate will have access to the final text of the Accession Treaty before the vote.

The Accession Treaty between the EU and all applicant countries, including Malta will be signed in Greece next April. The Treaty would officially spell out the conditions for membership. Holding a referendum before the final text of the Treaty is known may give rise to strong claims of unfairness by the no-lobby. And that is a scenario the Prime Minister wants to avoid at all costs.

With the Labour Party still undecided on what to do with a referendum result the yes-lobby has one thing in common with the no camp. They both want a referendum to be the final decision. The Nationalist Party would not want to have organisations such as CNI and the GWU boycotting the referendum because the official Treaty would not have been published before the referendum.

If the Prime Minister opts to wait for the final text of the Treaty to be published then the likeliness is that a referendum will be held late in March after the local elections.

It is unclear when the third and probably most important electoral appointment, the general election will be held. On more than one occasion the Prime Minister has said that the latest date possible for the election to be held is January 2004. It is unlikely that Government will go down to the wire - Nationalist governments have been known to favour early elections. It is also unlikely for Dr Fenech Adami to give weight to the Labour Party’s repeated insistence to forgo the referendum and go directly for a general election as soon as possible.

The date for a general election will greatly depend on the decisions to be taken in tomorrow’s cabinet meeting. And all Malta expects cabinet to come up with a date for the referendum.