News • 26 January 2003

Strike on Iraq will leave Malta behind

Analyst says 9/11 recovery could be short-lived

By Matthew Vella

SAN GWANN - Global opinion against war on Iraq has been as vehement as George W. Bush’s gung-ho reserve in looking for that elusive smoking gun.
Democracy is however not as high as Iraq’s oil reserves in America’s priority list to remove Saddam Hussein from power. International opposition is waving a finger at the US-UK coalition, telling them now is not the time for war.
The gamble hangs by those factors that welcomed the new millennium into an era of renewed instability. A new Gulf war will intensify the sense of injustice in both the Middle East and the Third World, possibly turning into a recruiting call for Islamic militancy and a new wave of 9/11-type terrorism.
Concern in Malta is manifest as well. The Mediterranean is an area of contention that has been no stranger to terrorism. Malta’s proximity to the Middle East heightens its security concerns. Not least due to having had both US and British warships berth in our waters, and an alleged Al-Qaeda affiliate arrested in Paceville.
Malta’s drawbacks
Deputy Director at the Mediterranean Academy of Diplomatic Studies Dr Stephen Calleya said the short-term effects of a war on Iraq are already manifesting themselves in the actual build-up to war.
"In the short-term, this war is going to be a major downer for tourism and the economy, and this is worrying everyone. It is taking longer to actually get there and the uncertainty being generated at this stage is only intensifying the sense of international insecurity. Even as we prepare for three elections this year, our security concerns in the light of possible way on Iraq will definitely affect our psyche when we come to vote."
Critics are convinced that war against Iraq is being waged to further the oil interests of the US. Others believe it to be a diversion from tackling the problem of the new warfare being waged by terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda. It seems to be a wrong war at the wrong time. And for Malta, freshly recovering from 9/11, the island’s tourism and economic prospects are set to re-experience a setback.
Dr Calleya believes the effect will be two-fold: "Undoubtedly, war on Iraq will contribute to a clear increase in instability internationally, but also in the Mediterranean, naturally due its proximity to Iraq.
"Malta stands to be impacted directly on two fronts. Tourism is expected to experience a drastic drop as it always tends to do in these scenarios. Coupled with global uncertainty post-9/11, this can only contribute to the direct negative impact. The other direct impact will be the increase in oil prices, which will have a negative effect for net importers such as Malta."
Disputing any form of economic benefits from such a war, Dr Calleya said there was no indication that Malta would be entering into any sort of business with any warships crossing the Mediterranean.