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Kurt Sansone
Brace yourself for renewed electoral rhetoric as January slowly sets in and the political parties prepare for the March local elections just nine months after a gruelling election campaign that culminated in the first-ever election of five European parliamentarians from Malta.
Depleted coffers and electoral fatigue may contribute to a less intense local election campaign by the three political parties in 2005 but even so the results will be scrupulously analysed by the number crunchers at Pieta, Hamrun and Sliema.
The Nationalist Party has much to be concerned about after the electoral debacle in the European Parliament election last year. Having obtained 39 per cent of the vote, its worst-ever electoral result since 1953 the red lights at Pieta have long been blinking.
A recent Xarabank opinion poll put the PN’s strength at 35 per cent further highlighting the party’s loss of sympathy with voters after 16 years in power.
The austere budget measures and an economy that refuses to take flight with all the consequences it has on job and wealth creation will do little in 2005 to see the PN’s fortunes turn around.
The March local elections are expected to serve as a pressure valve for many disgruntled middle class voters. In the last round of elections held in the same localities three years ago the PN had polled 44.8 per cent. The boys at Pieta will do their best to stress the fact that the localities are predominantly Labour-leaning. But comparisons can still be drawn with the result obtained in 2002 and anything less than 44.8 per cent would further confirm the Nationalist Party is at its lowest ebb in history.
As for the Labour Party the local elections will serve as a barometer on how the party is fairing among non-aligned voters. At the June election it was Alternattiva Demokratika that benefited from widespread disgruntlement with the Nationalist administration rather than the Labour Party.
The recent Xarabank opinion poll puts Labour’s strength at 56 per cent, one of the highest figures ever recorded by a political party in such surveys and the heads at Hamrun will seek to consolidate that result.
In 2002, the elections in the same localities saw Labour obtain an absolute majority of 52.2 per cent. An increase of four percentage points does not seem out of reach.
Alternattiva Demokratika has lost the impetus it got after the historic result obtained in the June EP election. Despite garnering almost 10 per cent of popular support, The Green Party failed to elect its candidate but managed to jolt the political system. Voters deserted the traditional parties in their droves and sent shock waves through the system. But The Green Party failed to capitalise on its success and according to opinion polls its electoral strength currently lingers at around eight per cent.
In March it will be difficult to gauge AD’s support if the party does not field candidates in all localities. Three years ago The Green Party had fielded only four candidates obtaining 1.2 per cent of the total vote. The party would need to do much more in 2005 to maintain the leverage it obtained in the European Parliament election. The Greens need to diversify their image away from the duo Harry Vassallo-Arnold Cassola and possibly bring newer faces to the fore.
The local election results will provide political parties with some serious head-scratching. A disastrous showing by the PN may even prompt Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi to consider a Cabinet re-shuffle. It won’t come soon after the election result but a prolonged digestion of figures would mean a re-shuffle becomes possible around May. Such a move, if considered, would give Gonzi the chance to change a couple of faces in a Cabinet that was widely criticised as a continuation of the Fenech Adami administration.
With the threat of industrial unrest hanging over his head and a generally negative mood about the country’s economic prospects, Gonzi may want to inject some new impetus into his government. The difficulty will however be one; Gonzi is surrounded by not too many promising faces and cannot afford to lose a lot of old-timers who despite their lacklustre performances still hold a wealth of experience.
On the Opposition benches a different sort of debate will be evolving in 2005. The ratification of the EU Constitution will be brought to Parliament possibly in the first three months of the year. Gonzi may even use the vote to stoke internal divisions within the Labour Party ahead of the March elections.
The Labour Party may choose not to play ball and refuse to discuss the issue at its forthcoming general conference. Opposition leader Alfred Sant has gone on record saying there is no urgency in taking a stand on the EU Constitution given that some countries would be holding referendums on the issue late in 2005.
Whatever scenario develops the internal debate will once again expose the Labour Party’s lukewarm reception to EU membership. It will pit veteran Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici against the moderate wing embodied in the likes of deputy leaders Charles Mangion and Michael Falzon. Eventually a compromise will be found but not without some blood letting.
kurt@newsworksltd.com
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