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The choice of the next Pope could be the most surprising ever judging by global trends. But with the cardinal-electors having been handpicked by John Paul II himself, does this mean more of the same for the world’s one billion Catholics? JAMES DEBONO reports
The Pope’s ailing health has intensified speculation on who will succeed him as St Peter’s successor but having appointed all but 16 of the members of the College of Cardinals, the body which will elect the next Pope, John Paul II will have had the greatest say in his Papal succession. In so doing he has almost guaranteed that his successor will share his conservative philosophy on such matters as women priesthood and contraception. Yet papal elections never are a straightforward affair and previous elections have defied all predictions.
Already the election of Pope John Paul II had come as a surprise to many. On the eighth ballot, Karol Joseph Wojtyla of Poland was anointed as the first non-Italian Pope in 455 years. Who would have dreamt of a Polish Pope back in 1978? Yet in many ways the Polish Pope reflected the spirit of the times – an anti-communist Pope in a world dominated by the struggle between liberal capitalism and communism.
Today, just as John Paul II was able to help heal the East-West split that dominated the planet in 1978, a Pope from the Third World could help address today’s North-South divide. According to John L Allen, the Vatican correspondent for the National Catholic Reporter, a pope from the Third World is the most likely possibility.
But nationality is not the single consideration in the choice of Pope. The Catholic Church’s most senior leaders usually base the choice on a number of criteria.
Age is an important factor. After John Paul II’s 25-year old pontificate, cardinals would most likely go for an old candidate. Cardinals usually prefer someone aged between 65 and 75.
Since Popes rule until they die, cardinals prefer to regulate the length of the pontificate by the age of the man they elect. But the Pope’s stand on moral issues is also an important factor for consideration.
An Italian Pope?
Although some people think the Italians are scheming to recapture their monopoly on the papacy, according to most observers the prospect does not seem very likely.
At present there are only 22 Italians out of 134 cardinals under 80 years of age, and so being eligible to vote. The Italian representation in the College of Cardinals is at 17 percent, the lowest ever. John Paul II has increased the percentage of cardinals from Eastern Europe and has raised the percentage of Third World cardinals to 38 percent.
The top Italian contender is the Archbishop of Milan, Dionigi Tettamanzi, 69, head of the world’s largest Catholic archdiocese and a reputable moral theologian who gets along well with liberal and conservative Catholics.
Another candidate, the former bishop of Milan, Carlo Maria Martini, is considered to be more liberal than John Paul II on issues such as contraception and the role of women in the church. His membership in the Jesuit order, which has been viewed with longstanding mistrust by the greater church, places the odds against him.
A Latin American Pope?
“There’s a feeling that it’s Latin America’s turn,” says Tom Reese, editor of the Jesuit magazine America. According to Vatican correspondent John L Allen, 69–year old Claudio Hummes is one of the favourites. He is known for his defense of the Movimento dos Sem Terra (landless movement), arguing that people should be encouraged to organize themselves to defend their rights. He reminds government leaders that the Church defends private property, but “with social responsibility.”
According to Allen, Hummes could be the right mix between doctrinal caution and social engagement.
Another candidate is 66-year old Jorge Mario Bergoglio, an Argentinian intellectual Jesuit who is considered as a conservative on doctrinal and spiritual matters. If he were to become pope, Bergoglio’s simplicity and humility would strike the world. In Argentina, for example, he takes public transportation rather than a chauffer-driven limousine.
One of the most mentioned Latin American candidates is Andres Rodriguez Maradiaga from Honduras, formerly head of the Latin American Bishops group. He’s been a strong opponent of Third World debt and an advocate for the church’s antipoverty mission. He teamed up with U2’s Bono to present a petition at the G-8 meeting in 1999, signed by 17 million people, asking for debt relief.
An African Pope?
According to the Washington Times, if the College looks outside of Europe for its next pope, Nigerian Cardinal Francis Arinze, 70, prefect of the Vatican’s Congregation for Divine Worship, is considered a top candidate.
Arinze matches a number of criteria. Due to his age an Arinze pontificate would likely be much shorter than John Paul’s. Catholicism is growing faster in Africa than anywhere else in the world. Cardinal Arinze would be the first African pope in 1,500 years, since the death of Pope Gelasius in 496 AD. As president of the Pontifical Council for Inter-Religious Dialogue since 1984, which makes him the fourth most senior Vatican official, Cardinal Arinze has experience dealing with Muslims, a must for any future Pope. His conservative theological orientation fits in well with the current Vatican climate.
Arinze poses a dilemma for liberals. While the prospect of a black Pope seems attractive, his position on several moral issues is very conservative. In a commencement address this year at Georgetown University, Arinze drew protests by saying the institution of marriage is “mocked by homosexuality”. If he did become Pope and liberals criticized his anti-gay and anti-abortion views, could conservatives possibly resist the temptation to charge racism? Might be too much to ask.
A Jewish Pope?
Another papable figure is the Archbishop of Paris, Jean-Marie Lustiger. His mother was a Jew killed at Auschwitz. If the cardinals wanted to generate excitement in Europe, choosing Lustiger would surely be a dramatic way to do it. According to Jewish law, a person born to a Jewish mother is Jewish, and being Jewish is not something a person can renounce.
Yet electing him could in the end sour relationships with the Jewish communities. Some Jews would see this as the church putting him up as an example of what Jews should do. What probably really rules him out now is his age. Since the mandatory retirement age for cardinals is 75, it might be a bit awkward moral-authority-wise for the Pope to bust the cap.
An EU friendly Pope?
The 70-year-old Godfried Danneels from Belgium is a professor of liturgy at the Catholic University of Louvain. As the archbishop of Brussels, he is an effective interlocutor with the new Europe. Some cardinals won’t vote for Danneels because they see him as too liberal. Although most of the cardinal-electors are not from Europe, the old continent still has by far the largest number, 66, followed by Latin America with 24 and North America with 14. Asia and Africa now have 13 each and Oceania five.
An American Pope?
The chances of a Pope from the USA are considered nil due to America’s status as the world’s only remaining superpower. According to Allen, “an American pope would invite speculation that Vatican policy was being crafted by the CIA.”
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