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Will Blair’s dented honesty cost him the next election? James Debono thinks that it will cost him a number of seats but not his job at 10, Downing Street. So does Labour MP Leo Brincat, a keen observer of British politics who was contacted by MaltaToday to give his views on the future of third way politics
The ‘Blair Issue’ is the major one facing British voters on May 5.
Although the British economy is one of the fastest growing in Europe voters are now more concerned with Blair’s credibility problem.
Maltese Labour MP and a former finance minister, Leo Brincat concurs: “the determining factor in the forthcoming UK elections is the element of trust or lack of it in the political leaders.”
Tony Blair who inspired trust through his toothy smile in 1996, has been plagued by credibility problems after the failure of the allies to find any weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.
And how is Blair reacting? According to several analysts Blair is planning to win a third term simply by taking hits from voters. According to Andrew Marr, the political editor of the BBC, the idea behind the so called masochism strategy “is that disillusioned voters can be won back only after they have shouted at the prime minister, or rather, sitting on their sofas at home, have cheered while others shout at him.”
In a recent campaign visit to Gloucester Tony Blair was cross-examined by 60 people selected by their Labour MPs. After getting a round of friendly applause Blair was grilled on Iraq. He faced comments like “On Iraq, I think the whole thing was wrong. I’ve never been convinced of your motivation,” Blair deployed his usual answers: “Look at the hope Iraqis now have for their own country. The effect on peace and security throughout the Middle East could be very, very big.” But on this occasion Blair failed to make a convert. “I hope you’re right,” the man said. “I still think you were wrong.”
The Iraq war has dented Blair’s popularity. “If Labour has its majority reduced, as is likely to happen, this could be the main reason for it,” remarks Leo Brincat. The Iraq war had a marked effect on women voters. But according to Brincat “the fact that anti war MPs like Robin Cook have been taken on board by Blair for the campaign could favourably sensitise some of Labour’s anti-war voters.”
Polls indicate that 11 per cent of people who voted Labour in 2001 are so turned off by Blair they might stay home, possibly driving turnout down to a historic low of 50 per cent, even lower than the 59 per cent historic low in 2001. Leo Brincat suspects “that the lack of alternatives presented by the two lesser parties and Blair’s dented ‘honesty’ image” could lead to a high abstention rate.”
Few think the Conservatives will win. This will require a huge swing of more than 10 per cent. But with a low turnout, surprises on the margins could trim Labour’s current 161-seat majority and undermine Blair’s authority in what he has declared will be his final term. Polls show that Labour supporters look less likely to turn out at the next election than Conservative or Lib Dem supporters.
Yet opinion polls showing the Tories slightly ahead of Labour might just be the persuader the government needs. More than two-thirds of voters think Labour will win and this widespread belief increases apathy among Labour voters.
Tony Blair has got the message. In order to win back these voters Blair and Gordon Brown are concentrating on ‘core’ Labour voters by emphasising issues: pensions, pay, working conditions and childcare. Does this signal the end of the new labour epoch and the return of old labour values?
Brincat recognises that at this point in time needs Labour “an ideological backbone” and not just slogans. In so doing Labour’s “greatest campaign asset should be Gordon Brown who has been forward looking in most of his recent speeches, such as last week’s address to business leaders during a breakfast speech in the heart of the financial district.”
New Labour is not Tony Blair’s monopoly and third way values also pervade Brown’s vision. “There is no doubt that a post-modern social democratic streak characterises Brown’s pronouncements on Labour plans for investing long-term in skills, science and enterprise, helping families trying to balance work and family life while investing in and reforming public services,” Brincat told MaltaToday.
The Conservatives could simply be making political inroads by default. According to Leo Brincat “the Tories will emphasise that Blair is not someone to be trusted as well as that he has a record of broken promises.”
Howard has made his party more focused, united and thus more electable than any of his predecessors since the Iron Lady. The Tories have also hired the services of Lynton Crosby, “the Karl Rove of Australian politics”, who steered Australia’s prime minister to four successive election victories. Europe has virtually disappeared as a dividing issue in the Party, which is now dominated by Euro-sceptics.
Howard has managed to ride on the crest of the politics of fear. The fact that his grandmother was killed in a Nazi concentration camp exempts him from charges of racism. But he has gone as far as proposing a British withdrawal from the UN convention on refugees. “The Tories have nothing to offer except scare-mongering,” notes Brincat.
As a self-declared “one nation Conservative” Howard is more keen on law and order issues than on pronouncing free market values. After a month of campaigning on asylum, yob culture, immigration, abortion and gypsies, the Conservative leader took time to pay tribute to Britain’s public service workers. And he called for a “liberation” of the “hard working forgotten majority” let down by Tony Blair. Unlike Thatcher who wanted to roll back the frontiers of government from people’s back Howard refers to the public service as “a noble calling”, which should be “honoured and rewarded.”
Blair’s credibility problem and the distaste for Howard’s populism among cosmopolitan middle class voters, creates the best possible scenario for the Liberal Democrats to break the mould of bipartisan politics. According to Leo Brincat Charles Kennedy will generate a higher element of trust than the Lib Democrats have done in recent elections. “The female vote is incidentally swinging the Liberals’ way since they find Blair irritating, Howard inept and consider Brown somewhat uncaring.”
Although poised to become a third force in British politics since the mid 1980s, the Liberals have so far failed in their bid to become a government party. On tax, civil liberties and the Iraq war, the Liberal Democrats have positioned themselves to the left of New Labour. This puts the Lib Dems at an advantage in the English north, where they are engaged in a two-way contest with Labour. Yet in order to break the mould they need to appeal to naturally conservative-minded voters especially in the English South-west where Labour barely counts and the real contest is between the Tories and the Lib Dems. In so doing the Lib Dems are sending mixed messages to the party’s base. Charles Kennedy’s stated determination not to enter any deals with Labour or Tories could also confuse voters who would like to use their vote to choose the party they wish to see in government. The Lib Dems could end up competing with a new major party in UK politics, the Abstention Party. The size of the Abstention Party will also determine Blair’s place in history.
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