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Julian Manduca
Planners in Malta must face a headache when taking decisions because while the EU’s statistical body Eurostat has calculated Malta’s population will increase to 500,000 by 2005, the National Statistics Office is predicting it will decrease to 334,000.
The difference is massive – Eurostat are predicting a 27.1 per cent increase and NSO a 14 per cent decrease – and population trends will have a major impact on the number of schools, hospital beds, dwellings and old people’s homes amongst others and, of course, on the money needed to pay social security and pensions.
MaltaToday asked what led to such differences in population predictions given that both used the similar baseline statistics, but with different assumptions. The NSO used 2003 figures and Eurostat those for 2004 but both were based on NSO baseline figures.
Robert Mizzi, the manager of information services at NSO said that Eurostat’s predictions included foreigners living in Malta, while the NSO’s did not.
Fabio Sartori from Eurostat told MaltaToday there were several differences in the assumptions:
- Malta NSO is assuming the total fertility rate will remain constant at a level of more or less 1.5, while Eurostat is assuming that the TFR will slightly increase (1.6) in the long run;
- Malta NSO is assuming that life expectancy will remain constant in the future, while Eurostat is assuming that it will increase by more than 4 years for females and by more than 5 years for males;
- Malta NSO is assuming no net migration in the future, while Eurostat is assuming an average net inflow of almost 2500 persons.
For all three components, therefore, Eurostat assumptions go in the direction of higher population growth.
If NSO statistics are correct, the number of elderly will be increasing dramatically and our pension funds will be under ever increasing strain. According to the NSO a massive 104,700 of our population will be over the age of 60 by 2005 – about one third of the population - with a mere 166, 800 in the 20 to 60 bracket. The comparative figures for 2004 indicate 72,200 over sixty and 220,700 to support them – aged between 20 and 60.
julian@newsworksltd.com
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