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James Debono delves on the motives behind a probable French No to the EU’s constitutional treaty
In a press conference inaugurating the discussion on the EU Constitutional treaty in the MLP, Alfred Sant declared that one of the reasons why the Party did not rush in to declaring its position was that it wanted to follow the ratification debate in other countries like France. A French ‘ no’ could save the MLP from a clash between the leadership and the euro sceptic current in the party. Ten successive opinion polls have now shown that France is preparing to reject the new EU constitution vote in next month’s referendum. Why?
France is one of the founding fathers of the European Union. The history of the EU is dominated by French political giants like Monnet, De Gaulle, Delors and Mitterrand. The author of the French constitutional treaty Giscard D’Estaing is a former French President. The impact of a French ‘no’ is bound to send shock waves across Europe.
Domino Effect
Arnold Cassola the Secretary General of the European Greens notes that in theory a ‘no’ vote anywhere in the 25 member countries would spell the end of the European constitution but a no vote in France would have an even greater impact. “A ‘no’ in France would kill the Constitution for many years to come.” Cassola notes that a ‘no’ from a traditionally Eurosceptic country like Britain would not have the same impact as a French ‘no’. In fact Britain will be voting in June 2006, at the end of a process where 24 countries would have already expressed themselves. “In this eventuality the leaders of the 24 would find a way of proceeding with the Constitution process even without Britain.” But this is not the case with France. “As a founder member and a traditionally strong believer in the Federal process a French ‘no’ on 29 May next, would really put the European project in crisis.” According to Cassola this “would really be the end of the Treaty for the Constitution.”
A French ‘no’ is expected to have a domino effect on Dutch voters, with around 70 per cent already saying that they will abstain from voting. The figures have shaken the main Dutch political parties who have previously said that they would need a minimum turnout of 30 per cent to validate any referendum outcome.
The Chirac factor
The fact that the referendum question ‘ Do you approve the treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe?’ is being asked by President Jacque Chirac does not help. Chirac, was elected by a landslide in 2002 but only thanks to the reluctant support of left-wing voters who were really voting against Jean-Marie Le Pen. Many are asking why they should side with the president now.
Many of Chirac’ s allies, such as former President and Constitution campaigner Valéry Giscard d’ Estaing, are warning him against taking too prominent a role in the campaign. They say the president, at a disadvantage for being in mid-term, could go the same way as his mentor, General Charles de Gaulle, who resigned after losing a 1969 referendum on regionalisation.
John Henley writing in the Guardian notes that: “Widespread public discontent at rising unemployment and economic stagnation, together with a broad sense of injustice over Prime Minister Raffarin’s policies, are fuelling the idea that since the government is positively begging the nation to vote ‘yes’ in the May 29 referendum, a ‘no’ is the perfect way to punish it.” This could result in a great Gallic raspberry.
The French Debate
Yet the debate in France is on a much higher plane than debate elsewhere in Europe including Malta.
The French anti Constitutional front is not limited to right wingers concerned that the EU referendum will somehow pave the way for Turkey’s entry into the EU. It also includes leftists like a significant minority of the Socialist Party. The dreaded Bolkestein directive, creating a free internal market in services has bolstered the ‘no’ camp. The current Commission headed by the free market oriented Barroso is deeply unpopular in France. Following fears that even ten minutes of European Commission President José Manuel Barroso’s liberal views could cost votes, President Chirac put pressure on France 2, a national television station, to stop Mr Barroso appearing on the political programme 100 Minutes to Convince.
In spite of an internal referendum in the Socialist Party enshrining a ‘yes’ position, the fastest-growing and numerically most significant component of the ‘no’ vote - comes from a majority of France’s Socialist party. François Hollande’s Parti Socialiste, voted to endorse the treaty in an internal referendum in December 2004, though 41 per cent of its members were against, including the former Prime Minister, Laurent Fabius.
Left-wingers calling for a ‘no’ vote are saying that the new Constitution enshrines a free-market, competition-driven vision of the EU for the first time.
French voters are concerned by articles like III-167 of the Constitution which forbids any form of public subsidy that “distorts or threatens to distort competition”.
The very language used in the document is clearly far too neo liberal for French tastes. In the 202 pages of the main text, one finds 176 instances of the word bank. The word market appears 88 times and the word trade appears 38 times.
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