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James Debono
The changes in electoral districts agreed upon by both the Nationalist party and the Malta Labour Party members represented in the electoral commission has brought some bad news for a number of MPs.
Nationalist MPs Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando and David Agius, have rightly expressed their frustration, facing as they are a constituency dismembered beyond recognition of what had been their fighting ground.
In the tenth district, the PN is preparing itself to face the loss of its traditional fourth seat in the stronghold of Sliema, St Julians and Pembroke now that Swieqi has passed on to the ninth district, in exchange for Labour locality Gzira.
Michael Falzon, the MLP’s deputy leader is set to take up Labour’s second seat in the tenth district. And the race between PN candidates in the tenth is bound to be tighter. Altogether the new changes to the electoral boundaries appear to favour the MLP, although some MLP casualties, like Noel Farrugia and Leo Brincat, could have to reconsider their strategies.
Battle in the ninth and tenth
One of the surprise changes in the Commission’s final report has been the inclusion of the more MLP-friendly Gzira and the exclusion of PN-friendly Swieqi from the tenth electoral district.
According to Nationalist MP Robert Arrigo, formerly Sliema’s long-standing mayor before he was drafted as a last-minute candidate for the critical 2003 general elections, the logical conclusion of the change in the boundaries is “the loss of a Nationalist MP on this district.”
For the past two consecutive elections the PN has elected four MPs on this district while the MLP has elected only one MP, with dual candidacy mainstay Evarist Bartolo ceding his seat to Joe Cuschieri.
In 2003, it returned former foreign minister, now EU Commissioner Joe Borg to parliament along with environment minister George Pullicino, tourism minister Francis Zammit Dimech, and the surprise election of Sliema Wanderers FC president and town mayor Robert Arrigo – even pipping PN mainstay Michael Frendo whose election to parliament came after Joe Borg ceded his tenth district seat, having also won the ninth district.
Arrigo says he still cannot understand why Swieqi was switched for Gzira in the ninth district when this change had left the district with roughly the same population as before. Between both localities, the population change is minimal: it has just exchanged voters.
Judging by the 2003 result, it appears the Nationalist MP mostly at risk is in fact foreign minister Michael Frendo if the MLP does manage to get its second seat. Arrigo waits next in line as the last Nationalist MP to be elected from the district.
Frendo had also failed in getting elected from the ninth, although his position in this district could be strengthened by the absence of EU commissioner Joe Borg from the race. His present ministerial clout could also be an electoral asset.
It looks like Labour backbencher Joe Cuschieri, brother to former MLP president Manuel Cuschieri, will still get elected through a by-election, facing new competition from party deputy leader Michael Falzon, who is contesting his first elections: a favourite with the party machine, for years having been at the heart of the party’s electoral strategy, Falzon is certain of a clear advantage in both the tenth and second districts.
Leo Brincat and Adrian Vassallo (MLP) are bound to increase their share of the vote due to their respective popularity in Gzira, which has been transferred from the ninth to the tenth district.
But the PN may find itself strengthened in the ninth district with the inclusion of the PN-inclining Swieqi and Gharghur. Even Labour MP Leo Brincat admits the MLP’s vote is bound to decline in the ninth district.
It certainly strengthens the position for family and social solidarity minister Dolores Cristina, who was elected along with PN giants Joe Borg and Francis Zammit Dimech. Calling it “a positive factor”, the inclusion of her hometown Swieqi certainly strengthens her position having also spent five months as mayor.
“Swieqi is my home ground because I live there and for a short while I was mayor there so without a shadow of doubt, it is the locality where I have the highest profile,” Cristina says although she faces new territory in Gharghur, qualifying her optimism as past experience has showed her that elections are full of surprises.
“In 2003 I was not elected from the district that included Swieqi but from the 9th district. I had only decided to contest this district a few months prior to the elections. In many ways that could be defined as an unexpected result.”
For Cristina, election results are “ephemeral and dependent on whims and fancies and changing scenarios.”
On the other hand, Leo Brincat (MLP) admits that on a personal level he could be negatively affected due to the removal of Gzira from this district, his personal stronghold, but he is already setting eyes on Gharghur which although predominantly Nationalist “also contains an increasing number of floating voters.” Leo Brincat’s reputation as a moderate within his party could be an advantage in PN-inclined areas.
The other Labour MP elected from this district is moral crusader Adrian Vassallo whose wife is the popular mayor of Ta’ Xbiex. Vassallo’s popularity also extends to nearby Gzira and Msida, but the fact that Gzira and Ta’ Xbiex are no longer part of this district, his position can be weakened, unless he can strengthen his position in the tenth district with the inclusion of Gzira, along with Leo Brincat.
Tight race in the revamped north
The changes in electoral districts have practically obliterated the seventh district. The only major locality which has remained in this district is Zebbug. But through the addition of Rabat, Mtarfa and Mgarr and the exclusion of Siggiewi and Attard, this district is practically uncharted territory for the MPs who were elected from this district.
The Nationalist MPs elected from the seventh district in 2003 were Education Minister Louis Galea, Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando and backbencher and Smash TV presenter David Agius.
Pullicino Orlando believes the decision to divide the original seventh district in three other districts as “unfair”. Although still optimistic that he will rise to the new challenge, Pullicino Orlando is far from satisfied. “I have never limited myself to one particular locality. The fact that Attard, Zebbug and Siggiewi have been separated creates huge difficulties.”
Recently-elected David Agius hails from Attard although he is very well integrated in the community life of Zebbug and Siggiewi, the other main localities in what used to be the seventh district. Agius has managed to get elected as president of the Siggiewi basketball club and is also a member in the committee of the Zebbug football club.
Now he is considering contesting two districts instead of one as he did in 2003. Agius is sure of one thing. He will be definitely contest the new eleventh district, which contains Attard but also Mosta, Mdina and Balzan, the latter three being new territories for the young MP.
But Agius does not exclude further changes in electoral districts following an agreement on Gozo. “I hope that an agreement on Gozo is reached soon as it would not be fair if a final decision is reached on the eve of the election. Candidates should be given time to settle down in the new districts,” says Agius.
Even the seventh district PN mainstay, education minister Louis Galea, could also be forced to contest another district. Owning a farmhouse in Siggiewi and with solid roots in this locality, Galea could aim contesting the sixth district which now includes Qormi and Luqa, where he faces fierce competition from Qormi strongman John Dalli, and in-house rival Clyde Puli.
But Galea’s future in parliament is not endangered with his victorious dual candidacy in the fifth district, which has seen very minor changes.
The future of the other contestant in the PN leadership battle in 2004 is in fact rosier. Siggiewi is not uncharted territory for former foreign minister John Dalli, who in 2003 garnered 1,650 first preference votes in the seventh district of Siggiewi and Attard. He told MaltaToday the inclusion of Siggiewi to Qormi could be favourable to his electoral prospects, saying he had a past record of contesting new districts and that he is not worried about changes.
On the other hand Clyde Puli’s task would be somewhat more difficult as he has never contested Siggiewi before, whilst the addition of Rabat and Mtarfa brings new entrants into the seventh district.
Notary Tony Abela, who hails from Rabat, would most probably contest the seventh district this time round. In 2003 he was elected from the eleventh district when Rabat was joined with Mosta. He was the only PN candidate apart from Eddie Fenech Adami to score more than 1,000 votes in the eleventh.
Even the eleventh district has seen major changes, which now also sees the departure of former PN leader and prime minister Eddie Fenech Adami from the electoral scene.
But the inclusion of Attard, Balzan and Mdina and the exclusion of Rabat and Mtarfa complicate matters for MPs presently elected from this district. Edwin Vassallo, who hails from Mosta, would most likely recontest this district, where Mosta is its major locality.
Tony Abela’s transfer to the seventh district could instead open the way for new entrants like David Agius who hails from Attard, a new addition to the Mosta district.
Labour MPs Anglu Farrugia and Noel Farrugia, who fail from Mosta and Rabat respectively, also have to face the changes in their district.
Anglu Farrugia told MaltaToday he considers Attard as a new field but he is not alarmed by these changes, insisting he owes his popularity to his national profile but he acknowledges that he owes his electoral strength to his popularity in Mosta, his place of birth.
But fellow MP Noel Farrugia, elected from the eleventh district, is more concerned. Hailing from Rabat, Farrugia said he will now be contesting the seventh district, which now includes Rabat and Zebbug. “Zebbug does present a difficulty for me. Apart from this, most of my time is being taken by my work as opposition spokesperson on agriculture.”
Farrugia will now have to compete with Zebbug favourite Gavin Gulia. Things could become more complicated if Rabat mayor and rising MLP star Frank Fabri decides to contest the general elections.
Touch of Gozo in twelfth
The most controversial change to electoral districts has been the inclusion of Gozitan village Ghajnsielem to the twelfth district, which also includes Mellieha, Naxxar, St Paul’s Bay and Comino. The change is owed to the ballooning in the Gozitan population beyond the constitutional variance, mainly due to Maltese residents with registered addresses for their second homes in Gozo.
Both Gozo Minister Giovanna Debono and MLP spokesperson Anton Refalo are insisting that Gozo should continue to be considered as one region, with the PN proposing constitutional amendments so that Gozo would remain as one district.
Ghajnsielem is a predominately PN locality. In the last local elections the MLP barely won 30 per cent of the vote. In previous elections the MLP fared even worse. Deprived of Ghajnsielem, the PN would face an increasingly uphill battle in Gozo.
But if Ghajnsielem is once again rejoined to Gozo, this could trigger further changes in the composition of the other electoral districts.
Nationalist MP David Agius expressed his concern that another district reshuffle would be unavoidable if the two political parties represented in parliament reach an agreement to reunite Ghajnsielem with Gozo.
Ghajnsielem has been detached from the Gozo thirteenth district and attached to the twelfth because Gozo as a single district had 7.74 per cent more voters than the national average. With the removal of Ghajnsielem the district is back to the national average with 23,368 voters. But according to David Agius the future removal of Ghajnsielem from the revamped twelfth district could make further changes in the electoral districts unavoidable.
“If Ghajnsielem is rejoined to Gozo, the Commission will have to reshuffle districts again. This situation is leaving candidates exasperated as they cannot settle to work on their constituencies.”
jdebono@newsworksltd.com
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