|
James Debono
An election held today would see Labour win by a landslide even though Gonzi is still leading as the most trusted leader. A MaltaToday survey conducted in the same week during which hefty increases on fuel and electricity were announced has shown the Nationalist party is trailing five points behind the Labour party at 31 per cent.
Although Alfred Sant has kept the same level of trust he enjoyed a month ago in the first Trust Barometer conducted by MaltaToday, trust in the Prime Minister has fallen dramatically from 40 per cent to 26.2 per cent.
The only political variable, which can account for this drop in support for the Prime Minister, is the introduction of the 55 per cent surcharge on water and electricity.
This means that without scoring any additional points, Sant has managed to close the trust gap between him and the Prime Minister from 15 per cent to a sheer 0.4 per cent in just a few weeks.
Harry Vassallo drops from his former trust rating of 9.2 per cent to 4.2 per cent.
If one were to take into consideration those with declared voting intention, and eliminate those 38 per cent of respondents who are still undecided or who would not vote if an election where to be held now, the MLP would gain an absolute majority of 51 per cent while the PN would trail at 42 per cent. Nearly six per cent would opt for Alternattiva Demokratika – the Green party. The second MaltaToday survey is bound to create shockwaves for all three Maltese political parties, but undoubtedly the greatest shock will be felt in Pietà and at Castille.
It was no surprise that after this week’s fuel shock the MLP is more popular than the PN. But the bad news for the PN is that Gonzi has practically lost his advantage over Sant when it comes to trust. During the past months PN officials have found consolation in Gerhard Shroeder’s remarkable recovery in Germany, when the German socialist leader, who had always enjoyed higher trust levels than his rival, managed to pull his party from certain defeat to a power-sharing agreement with the Christian Democrats. If Gonzi’s fall from grace is reconfirmed during the next months, the future for the PN is far from rosy.
Yet the survey also sends mixed messages about the Malta Labour Party. The fact that Alfred Sant has not scored any additional points despite his rival’s downfall, exposes the party’s greatness weakness – its leadership.
It is also clear that while the MLP as a whole is more popular than its leader, Gonzi is still a bit more popular than his own party. While 31.4 per cent would vote for the MLP if an election were held now, only 25.9 per cent think that Alfred Sant is the most trusted political leader.
The discrepancy between support for the party and support for the party’s leader is an indication that the leadership question in the MLP remains an open one. In fact 24 per cent of respondents stating they would vote Labour in a forthcoming election did not choose Sant as their most trusted leader. 23 per cent of Labour voters are still undecided on which leader they trust most.
Only 12 per cent of respondents stating they would vote PN did not choose Gonzi as their most trusted leader. 11 per cent of these respondents are undecided on which leader they trust most.
Harry Vassallo was judged as the most trusted leader by 4.2 per cent, a decrease of 5 per cent from last month. AD’s support seems to hover between the 3 to 6 per cent mark, far from the heights achieved by Cassola in the European elections. This could be an indication that during times of economic shocks, those parties associated with values and quality of life issues tend to lose ground to larger parties who can offer greater certainties.
jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt
Methodology
A total of 478 respondents were randomly selected from the telephone directory. 309 of these respondents accepted to participate in the survey. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 5.7 per cent. The survey was conducted between Monday 24 September and Thursday 28 October. Respondents were asked to state which party they would vote for if an election were to be held tomorrow. Respondents were also asked to state which political leader enjoys their trust.
|
