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James Debono
A surprising revelation in December’s MaltaToday survey has shown that in the aftermath of the budget the Nationalist Party has garnered three percentage points more than the Malta Labour Party, in a survey which asked respondents who they would vote for if an election is held now.
The results showed that the PN would win a relative majority, falling short of an absolute one.
In fact among respondents who have made up their mind on how to vote, the PN scores 49 per cent, while the MLP scores 44 per cent. The Greens have a support of 6.7 per cent. The result however could be too close to call as the difference between the two parties falls within the survey’s 5.7 per cent margin of error.
But the recovery made by the PN in the past month could be an indication of a good damage control exercise in the aftermath of a difficult budget. It could also be an indication that the PN has successfully managed to distance the budget from the imposition of the hefty 55 per cent surcharge. The PN had registered heavy losses in the last survey held in the week after the imposition of the surcharge.
But it is also clear the PN’s support could have been boosted by the General Workers Union protest held during CHOGM week, and the first of the union’s industrial actions on Thursday.
The survey also coincided with the closure of Sea Malta after the GWU failed to agree with the terms offered by Grimaldi, leading to the liquidation of this company.
The survey results could also indicate the electorate shuns displays of militancy, all the more showing Tony Zarb as the PN’s hidden asset.
While the difference between the two parties is too close to call due to the survey’s margin of error, the same cannot be said for the trust gap between Alfred Sant and Lawrence Gonzi which now amounts to 14.2 per cent.
This shows that the trust gap between the two leaders is back to October levels when it amounted to 15 per cent. Last month, in the aftermath of government’s decision to impose the 55 per cent surcharge the gap between the two was narrowed to a sheer 0.4 per cent, indicating Sant’s performance has failed to dent the trust in the PN’s party leader.
While Gonzi is eight percentage points more popular than his own party, Alfred Sant is three percentage points less popular than his own party, an indication that whilst Sant is still seen a liability for his own party, Gonzi manages to remain an asset for his party.
Support for the Greens has increased slightly during the past month, indicating that AD has managed to consolidate its support among a significant five per cent segment of the electorate.
Methodology
A total of 416 respondents were randomly selected from the telephone directory. 297 of these respondents accepted to participate in the survey. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 5.7 per cent. The survey was conducted between Tuesday 29 November and Thursday 1 December. Respondents were asked to state which party they would vote for if an election were to be held tomorrow. Respondents were also asked to state which political leader enjoys their trust.
jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt
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