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Perhaps Albert Einstein was joking when he said: “I never think of the future, it comes soon enough.” We have to think of the future if we want to be among those forces that shape it for our benefit. If we allow others to shape it for us, the future will happen just the same without us, and probably, against us.
This is quite a new way of looking at the future. For many centuries, prophets, astrologers and the like used to be consulted to predict specific future events: assassinations of rulers, natural disasters, outcomes of war and even the end of the world. Frequently in the past our ancestors wanted to know of the future in a fatalistic way, to find ways to know about their fate and accept it, rather than to do something about it and change it.
This attitude to the future has changed a lot during the last 40 years. A big industry of future studies has grown, to begin with in the United States, not to predict specific events but to identify evolving trends of change in the natural and social world, trying to anticipate the future and ride its beneficial waves and take steps to prevent negative repercussions.
A number of technological and scientific breakthroughs in the last 40 years have made this approach to future studies possible. Futurists have developed the systems analysis approach, using computer-generated models to try and capture the complex interdependence of the various interactive elements of the natural world by linking population growth, resource use, pollution and climate change and data about employment, inflation, interest rates and other related factors to try and forecast the behaviour of the economy. Current futurists are also taking great interest in issues of culture, society, human development and spirituality.
Decision makers in public affairs and in business are relying on futurists before making major decisions and when launching social, economic and political innovations. Whether futurists forecast the future correctly or not, they are shaping our future as their recommendations are followed in an increasingly interdependent world.
Over the last 40 years futurists have produced enough bad predictions to show that Doris Day was right when she said “the future’s not ours to see.” W.C. Fields also said “It’s an open secret that we can predict anything but the future.” Changes have continued to happen so quickly and dramatically that it has become very difficult to foresee the future and plan ahead. This has led some to conclude that strategic planning is impossible. Yet political, business and social organisations need to prepare for futures they cannot predict. They need to know what their citizens will want, what their competitors will do and how further technological and social changes will create new issues they have to be addressed adequately.
A new approach is being developed on how best to navigate effectively the uncharted seas of the future. Instead of committing themselves rigidly and stubbornly to one vision of tomorrow and following it relentlessly no matter what, creative and successful decision makers keep their minds open and operate with strategic flexibility along a multi-track mix of policies. They prepare for a range of relevant possible futures. Instead of trying to predict the future, they anticipate it by identifying what is driving change and define the range of possible futures.
They develop strategies for these possible futures by defining the “core” and “contingent” elements of these strategies. They monitor the environment within which they are operating and consider carefully all the variables that affect their operation and exercise some options and abandon others according to the changing circumstances.
It does not make sense to talk on the best way to face the future in general terms. What matters is not the future in general but rather the specific future of a person’s, organization’s life at a given moment. To put the question in general terms would be like asking a chess champion “Tell me, Master, what is the best move in the world?” There simply is no such thing as the best or even a good move apart from a particular situation in a game and the particular personality of one’s opponent. Open minds, focused minds and flexible minds are indispensable to navigate successfully in tomorrow’s uncharted waters.
Lawrence Ancilleri
I first met Lawrence Ancilleri 29 years ago when we were both teaching at De La Salle College. We used to spend all our midday breaks discussing big issues of politics, ethics and culture. I got to know Cottonera through him. Until meeting him, for someone like me who hailed from Mellieha, Cottonera was a very distant planet. Lawrence not only loves Cottonera passionately but also has studied it carefully over the years. Anthropology, together with history, diplomatic studies and politics are not only his hobbies but also his vocation. He still studies them and teaches them. He believes it is important to help young people learn history though he admits it is not easy. “To most of them the past may even be a barrier especially if they see it as the source of their present difficulties. Often they want to run away from it and from what it represents. A strong historical education involves the negation of such thinking and the awareness that more often then not they have to spend a lifetime understanding the fact that they are biologically, psychologically, economically, politically and especially culturally immersed in a past which is much more stronger then the aspirations of a single generation.”
Lawrence feels that through history every generation learns how to cope better with future challenges brought about by technological changes. He believes that “history teaching should be committed to lessen tension and war.”
He stresses that it is necessary to find new ways of making history education interesting and lively for young people. “The Internet and other colourful entertainment tools should be mobilized as useful tools. They should not be looked upon as the dominant rivals of an archaic schooling system. Of course the history educator himself has to act as an enthusiastic animator to stimulate young people to explore history.”
Lawrence would like the effective use of cartoons in history education at primary level. “At Secondary Level we should do away completely with text books which have been used since the 70s. The teaching of history does not end with the Knights of Malta. At this level history teachers should avoid emphasising the ‘hero in history’ approach. And as regards Maltese history we have to keep digging up the Maltese experience vis-à-vis how we accepted foreign cultures and how and why we resisted them. Glorifying our roles in the wars of others should be avoided. Tourists are sick and tired of hearing us talk about heroic warlike exploits. History teaching should compare what was happening in Malta with the experiences of the peoples who live around us especially in the Mediterranean. We have also to emphasise that we were already part of Europe before we joined formally the EU.”
Lawrence thinks that the use of films would help young people understand better what happened before they were born. He refers to films like Battleship Potemkin, Citizen Kane, Nuova Cinema Paradiso, War and Peace, The Great Dictator and the like.
Lawrence is at present teaching Systems of Knowledge at the Malta College of Arts, Science and Technology. He thinks “the role of Systems of Knowledge as a foundation and integration of the arts and sciences should be re-evaluated. It is in such a scenario that history should be given its due attention as perhaps the very core of a future programme. This must include not just excursions and museum awareness but also visits abroad, especially to Europe and even North Africa (including the desert).”
When it comes to University Lawrence supports a very recent development: “The introduction of Oral History is one of the most important developments in the department. Students must feel the unfolding historical events from the very experiences of the ordinary observer and participant who is also the protagonist of particular situations. On local level politics one must admit that most of the young are brought up in pre-set ideologies. Knowing the experiences of the ‘Others’ is in itself a most positive approach to lessen partisan tensions in our society.”
Lawrence suggests that one way of making history relevant for people in the 21st century is empowering them with the necessary tools of how to make use effectively of international organizations like the European Parliament and the United Nations: “We have to learn from the Maltese initiatives in the Law of the Sea, in the Barcelona Process bringing together European and Mediterranean countries, other fora dealing with Mediterranean issues. Rather then waste time in crystallizing a Maltese identity we should move towards and describe the cosmopolitan Maltese who integrates and participates in a global society.”
Lawrence thinks that the media have an important role to play in cultivating a historical consciousness. “It is not the Tsunami itself which should make the news but why was there no effective warnings and how are the people and their governments tackling the after-effects of the Tsunami. Sensationalism should give way to thoughtful and sensitive analysis, which is so important in the study of the genre of history itself. History is made every day and how this is reported in the media should always stress that people matter wherever they are, whoever they are. In a world with no frontiers even distant peoples have become our immediate neighbours.”
evaristbartolo@hotmail.com
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