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James Debono
The Malta Labour Party is once again enjoying a slight lead thanks to a sharp drop in support for the PN during the past two months, registered in MaltaToday’s first survey for 2006.
With Labour stuck at the same level of support it enjoyed in December, the PN has lost four percentage points during the past two months. But instead of shifting their support towards Labour, more respondents are in fact undecided.
2006 has seen the first water and electricity bills with the 55 per cent surcharge included, a good reason for the electorate to once again turn its back on the PN, eroding its ephemeral gains made back in December, when the General Workers Union was on the warpath with the government. Back than, government’s pundits also exploited the GWU’s lack of judgement on the Sea Malta sale to the full.
Although Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi still enjoys a higher degree of trust than MLP leader Alfred Sant, the trust gap between the two leaders has been narrowed down from 14 per cent to 8 per cent, thanks to a drop of five per cent in Gonzi’s popularity. But Sant has only recovered by default without making any significant gains.
The survey once again exposes Alfred Sant’s lack of appeal among voters where he also fails in making any inroads amongst undecided voters. While 18.8 per cent of undecided voters prefer Gonzi to the other two political leaders, only 8.2 per cent of this crucial category prefer Sant.
Even among respondents still bent on not voting in a forthcoming election, Gonzi enjoys a greater level of trust, with 18.2 per cent opting for the PN leader and only 4.5 per cent opting for the MLP leader.
Even when it comes to core party supporters, Gonzi’s leadership emerges as stronger than that of Sant. While only 6 per cent of PN supporters do not trust their leader, a significant 18 per cent of those opting for Labour do not trust Alfred Sant.
This results in a situation where Lawrence Gonzi is 7 percentage points more popular than his own party, while Alfred Sant is two percentage points less popular than his own party, exposing a fundamental weakness in the MLP’s leadership.
But it could also be an indication that the MLP could still win despite having a less popular leader than the PN’s. Taking just those respondents who have made up their mind on which party to vote for, the MLP manages to win a relative majority of 47 per cent – a repeat of this result in 2008 could mean Labour winning the election without even surpassing the 50 per cent mark.
It would ultimately also expose the weakness of an electoral system which does not envision third party representation. With the Green Party scoring an impressive 7.2 per cent and pushing the other two parties below the 50 per cent mark, the case for electoral reform becomes even more pressing.
Methodology
A total of 456 respondents were randomly selected from the telephone directory. 300 of these respondents accepted to participate in the survey. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 5.7 per cent. The survey was conducted between Monday 23 January and Thursday 26 January. Respondents were asked to state which party they would vote for if an election were to be held tomorrow. Respondents were also asked to state which political leader enjoys their trust.
jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt
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