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James Debono
A survey by MaltaToday reveals that the PN is trailing in third place in the race for the Marsaskala local election after losing 23 per cent of its support in a locality where residents are outraged by the Malta Environment and Planning Authority’s decisions on fish farms and the Sant Antnin recycling plant.
Riding on a wave of disenchantment amongst PN voters, the Grupp Indipendenti Marsaskala, led by former Nationalist firebrand Josie Muscat, has overtaken the PN as the second political force in the locality.
The PN is also set to lose 9 per cent in its traditional stronghold, Sliema with Alternattiva Demokratika increasing its strength from 7 per cent in The 2003 local elections to 13 per cent – an indication that AD will keep its seat on the Sliema local council. Despite competition from third parties in both localities, the Malta Labour Party has managed to increase its share of the vote in both seaside localities.
These results can only give an indication on next Saturday’s elections as a significant number of voters, 30 per cent in Marsaskala and 20 per cent in Sliema were still undecided. In Sliema a significant 21 per cent refused to reveal their voting intentions.
Major voting shifts
The MaltaToday survey that predicts the PN becoming the third political force in Marsaskala, has shown clear shifts in the vote the PN previously had in the southern village back in 2003.
The PN has lost 25 per cent of its support in 2003 to the Grupp Indipendenti Marsaskala list, led by former Nationalist MP Josie Muscat, and six per cent of its votes to AD in Sliema.
PN losses to the MLP are also significant with 11.9 per cent in Marsaskala and four per cent in Sliema. The MLP loses less votes to third parties than the PN, just 2.6 per cent to AD in Sliema, and 7.6 per cent to GIM in Marsaskala.
But the PN’s haemorrhage of votes to third parties is more contained at a national level. This emerges from respondent’s voting intentions for a forthcoming general election. In Marsaskala the PN’s support at national level stands at 32 per cent, twice as much as its support at local level.
Although AD scores a remarkable 13 per cent as regards voting intentions for next Saturday’s elections, its support in general election drops to 5.5 per cent. Surprisingly, as regards general elections, AD is stronger in Marsaskala where it scores seven per cent.
But the litmus test for the PN is whether the votes gained by Josie Muscat’s list in Marsaskala will return back to the fold in the 2008 national election. The bad news for the PN is that only 24 per cent of GIM voters would vote for the PN if an election were held tomorrow. Another 18.2 per cent said they would vote for the MLP.
A remarkable 27 per cent of those opting for Josie Muscat’s list said they would not even vote in a forthcoming election.
The mood of political disenchantment in Marsaskala is also reflected by the 23 per cent of respondents who do not have any trust in any of the three party leaders. The consolation for the PN is that opposition leaders do not enjoy the same degree of trust as Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi.
Although the MLP enjoys a support of 61 per cent in Marsaskala, Sant enjoys a trust rating of 28 per cent in this Labour stronghold.
On the other hand, Gonzi is trusted by a majority of 50.2 per cent in his Sliema stronghold. Surprisingly Harry Vassallo gets a better rating in Marsaskala than in his own hometown of Sliema.
Angry over government plans
A number of decisions by MEPA and the central government have weakened the PN in both localities, with 80.4 per cent of Marsaskala voters opposing MEPA’s decision to relocate fish farms six kilometres away from the Marsaskala coast.
Only 13 per cent agree, whilst 63 per cent do not approve of the consultation process on the siting of the Sant Antnin recycling plant. Only 17 per cent approve of the way Marsascala residents were consulted.
Sliema resident are more divided than Marsaskala on government plans for their localities. 40.6 per cent of Sliema voters oppose current plans for the Qui-Si-Sana car park. Only 31.2 per cent agree with the project. On the other hand, 53.2 per cent of Sliema voters favour the pedestrianisation of Bisazza Street. Only 18 per cent are against, indicating support for government plans to divert traffic from Bisazza Street to Tigné and Qui-Si-Sana.
Top Concerns
The top local concern of Sliema residents is lack of parking space, a problem mentioned by 47 per cent of Sliema respondents. The state of the roads and pavements is the top concern of 18 per cent of respondents. Another major concern mentioned by 14 per cent of respondents is the state of construction sites.
Marsaskala residents have different problems. The top concern of the locality is the state of the roads, a problem mentioned by 30 per cent of respondents. Other top concerns are the Sant Antnin recycling plant mentioned by 19 per cent. The relocation of fish farms is the top concern of 9 per cent of Marsaskala residents.
jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt
Methodology
A total of 476 respondents from Marsaskala and 514 respondents from Sliema were randomly selected from the telephone directory. Respondents who accepted to be interviewed were asked to state whether they are registered as voters in Sliema or Marsaskala. Only those stating that they are expected to vote in these localities were interviewed. 301 respondents from Marsaskala and 300 respondents participated in the survey. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 5.7 per cent.
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