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There’s only one way of getting a real picture, and the EU’s not in it: JAMES DEBONO says the comparison is with the 2000 local elections
A small but significant shift to Labour since the 2000 local elections looks evident in key localities like Msida, Birkirkara and San Gwann, defying the PN’s contention that Labour has only won by default because of a low turnout.
The comparison with the 2000 elections, where a standard turnout was just 5 per cent more than last week’s elections, appears to contradict the PN argument that Nationalists may have voted with their feet, but will return back to the fold come the 2008 general elections.
Last week Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi said the 66 per cent turnout had been much lower than the 2003 turnout – the local elections which coincided with the vote on the EU referendum and instigated an 88 per cent turnout. Gonzi said low turnouts always affect the PN worse.
However a more reliable comparison with the 2000 election round has shown clear evidence of PN votes shifting to Labour in Msida and Birkirkara.
Red swings
Six years ago, the PN won by a relative majority of 49.3 per cent. Since that mid-term election, its votes has decreased by 6.4 per cent, with 4,919 votes less. Labour increased its vote by 4,248 votes, the total number of votes cast in 2006 remaining relatively unchanged, just 182 votes higher.
Losses for the Nationalists and gains for Labour are generally attributed to a low participation of Labour voters in 2000 and an equally low participation of PN voters this year. In 2000 Labour had not yet fully recovered from the defection of its former charismatic leader Dom Mintoff, who conducted a one-man rebellion that prompted the party’s downfall in 1998.
But it is still difficult to exclude the shift to Labour in a number of localities. Msida elected a Labour-led council. Since 2000, the PN has lost 474 votes while Labour gained 250 votes. The number of votes cast however decreased by just 224, although the locality also welcomed 293 new voters. Labour’s shift is owed either to a conversion of PN voters or a prevalence of Labour votes amongst the new voters.
San Gwann’s turnout, decreasing by 194 votes, saw the PN losing 315 votes and Labour gaining a remarkable 809. And in Pietà, long dominated by the Nationalists, a low turnout favoured a swing to Labour. Here votes casts fell by 232, but while the Nationalists lost 258 votes, Labour only gained just 25 votes.
But if Pietà proves Gonzi right, Birkirkara shows the contrary. In the town where former PN leader Eddie Fenech Adami’s son Michael clinched the mayorship, Labour made substantial gains to the extent that it was just 85 votes short of unseating a PN majority.
The PN lost a grand total of 1,118 votes since 2000 while Labour gained 771. And votes cast increased by 22 votes since 2000, the scale of the PN’s collapse making it likely that those opting for the Nationalists in 2000 had definitely swung to Labour.
Sliema proves that massive PN losses are not necessarily translated into MLP gains. Although Sliema has remained a safe PN locality, the party lost 1,148 votes since 2000. The number of votes cast in this locality fell by 325. A low turnout among Nationalist voters and Alternattiva Demokratika’s 657 first count votes in 2006 fully account for the PN’s decline in its fortress. But the MLP has only gained 95 more votes than it had in 2000.
The 2006 elections indicate a drop in turnout that has penalised the PN in certain localities but does not fully explain the PN’s collapse in certain localities.
Nationalist hopes that disgruntled voters will still return to the fold by 2008 may not be foregone conclusions. Voting in local elections has always required the extra effort of walking out to the polling station on an occasion where it is acceptable to abstain. It is a general election where abstention is not an option for Maltese voters, and where some former Nationalists may as well vote for another party.
Gonzi has already surmised that local issues were an important factor in keeping some Nationalists away from the polls, and that the contentious projects for the locality of Sliema which he considers essential to Malta’s development, might have affected the turnout or how people voted.
Green grassroots
But it’s also the absence of national rallying cries such as the European Union had been, that is also placing local issues affecting people in their everyday life high up on the national agenda. And waking up to find your tranquil neighbourhood transformed into another Paceville, could be a much worse nightmare for a disgruntled Qui-Si-Sana voter than having Alfred Sant in power: the PM’s own persistence in describing a shopping mall at Qui-Si-Sana as an essential project, seems to be only adding fuel to the fire in a stronghold where Alternattiva Demokratika has established itself in the political landscape.
Yet despite the disgruntlement with the PN, these elections were not the definitive breakthrough for AD, which made inroads in localities where its candidates outshine the other parties through their principled stand against development. With its opposition to car park projects and tourist over-development in rural areas part of its DNA, nobody can attack the greens of opportunism.
But where the hottest local issues revolve around skips, wardens and pavements, AD is irrelevant to voters. On this occasion AD had the task of defending three seats: it passed the litmus test in Sliema with Michael Briguglio confirmed on the first count with 10 per cent of the vote, but incumbents in Birkirkara and Lija did not even stand for re-election.
In Birkirkara, where AD has elected a candidate every time it contested the locality, it failed to elect its new candidate in a 13-strong council which makes the election of candidates easier than in smaller councils.
In Lija, where AD fielded its spokesperson for finances Edward Fenech as a last minute replacement for incumbent James Camilleri, the Green vote contracted by 5 per cent.
But AD has also made a historic breakthrough in Gozo, where its strong 11 per cent showing in Sannat was unthinkable a few years ago when the Greens were accused of wanting to stultify “progress”.
Growing concern for the environment after decades of over-development has now created a groundswell of opposition to projects like the Ta’ Cenc villa complex. Led by Victor Galea, the Gozitan Greens outshine their Maltese counterparts in grassroots activism.
Countdown to 2008
The clear winner in these elections are Labour, with a victory crowned by its success in Rabat where voters gave more importance to parliamentary secretary Tony Abela’s past association with Indri Zammit, an alleged drug smuggler, than to the leaking of tar and soil in Saint Paul’s grotto.
Paul Abela, the parliamentary secretary’s brother, was the greatest casualty of the MLP’s campaign, seeing his vote shrink from 904 in 2003 to 412 last week. But the greatest risk for the MLP is that of falling into the trap of over-confidence. A victory against an elusive enemy who fought aggressively, only to contain losses in some localities like Rabat and Sliema, could prove to be a pyrrhic one.
The Prime Minister is already hinting at a “redistribution of wealth” after the past three years in the wilderness. A tax reform is expected in the next budget. A quick and aggressive electoral campaign after a redistributive budget would be an entirely different contest.
jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt
Links: www.maltadata.com
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