|
In a reversal of fortunes since the 2003 referendum and general election, the Nationalist Party has since February this year, witnessed less of a solid core vote than the Labour Party with more PN voters predisposed to join the ranks of those who are yet undecided if an election were held any time soon.
An analysis of the results achieved in the MaltaToday survey tracking peoples’ voting intentions held since November last year clearly shows that the Nationalist Party is more likely to lose or gain voters to the ‘won’t vote-undecided’ class than the MLP is.
Between November 2005 and February this year the number of disenchanted voters (those saying they won’t vote or are still undecided) increased from 38.2% to 43.7%. The Nationalist Party’s support over the period remained relatively constant at 25.8% with the Labour Party experiencing a drop of five per cent even if still enjoying a relative majority over the governing party in February.
With the number of ‘won’t vote-undecided’ between February and May dropping from 43.7% to 23.6%, it was the PN that gained the upper hand over Labour, registering an increase of 10.5 percentage points against Labour’s 8.5%.
In May the PN enjoyed a relative majority of 36.3% over Labour’s 34.9%. But massive disenchantment in the PN’s core vote with the proposed building schemes and the questionable performance of a number of cabinet ministers saw the PN registering a massive drop of 11.5% between May and July.
During the corresponding period the number of ‘won’t vote-undecided’ voters swelled once again to 40.6%. Labour’s share of the vote only dropped by 3.9% giving the MLP a majority over the PN that was over the survey’s margin of error.
In July Labour held sway over 31% of respondents while the PN’s share was 24.8%.
|
