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James Debono
Just two days after his inauguration as Malta’s new Archbishop, Mgr Pawlu Cremona faces a country that is evenly split on the issue of divorce, a survey by MaltaToday reveals.
For the first time ever, an opinion poll shows those favouring the introduction of divorce at par with those opposing it. While a slight majority of 50.4 per cent are opposed to the introduction of divorce, 49.6 per cent favour its introduction, at least in certain cases.
A clear pro-divorce majority already exists among respondents aged below 55 years of age. But among those over 55, 62 per cent of respondents oppose divorce and manage to tilt the balance against its introduction.
The last survey on the issue, published in January 2005, showed 54.6 per cent opposed to divorce and 42.5 per cent supporting its introduction. The 1999 European Values Studies showed 56 per cent opposed to divorce.
Asked whether divorce should be introduced, 28.1 per cent replied with an outright yes while 21.5 per cent said divorce should be introduced in certain circumstances.
The survey shows that the Maltese have very strong convictions on the subject, to the extent that none of the survey’s 300 respondents were undecided on this issue. In the 2005 survey only 3 per cent were undecided.
The result also reflects concern on the growing number of separations with two out of every 5 respondents (40%) claiming that they have a relative who has experienced marital separation.
Among those who have experienced a separation in their family, support for divorce rises to 62 per cent.
The survey results coincide with the re-opening of the divorce debate after the government asked for an opt-out from the European Commission’s plans to harmonise divorce legislation.
Despite assurances that the Commission’s proposals will not affect the Maltese ban on divorce, the Maltese government’s sho w of force on this issue reinforced the PN’s conservative credentials, in a move that risks alienating a strong liberal minority of Nationalist voters who favour the introduction of divorce. Columnist Daphne Caruana Galizia, who normally toes the PN’s line, went as far as saying that she no longer feels at home in the PN. Former Minister Michael Falzon has also expressed pro-divorce views.
MaltaToday’s survey shows that this sentiment is reflected by a substantial 42 per cent of those who had voted PN in the 2003 general election and who favour the introduction of divorce.
On the other hand a 55 per cent majority of MLP voters favour the introduction of divorce. The secular outlook of a majority of MLP voters reflects the party’s role in history as a secularising force, which had introduced civil marriage and legalised homosexual relations in the 1970s.
Alfred Sant was very close to introducing divorce when a Commission for the Future of the Family recommended its introduction in 1997. But an internal party mutiny by a number of conservative Labour MPs blocked this move.
Following Sant’s downfall in 1998, the divorce issue was discarded completely by the party. Sant went on record saying that the party’s silence on this issue reflects the lack of support from civil society for the introduction of divorce.
Presently only the Greens are actively speaking in favour for the introduction of divorce. Despite a growing support for divorce cutting across the political lines, both major parties stand to lose votes if they alienate conservatives who oppose divorce.
Judging by the results, the PN risks a conservative mutiny if it declares itself for divorce with 15.2 per cent of its voters threatening to vote for another party and 28.6 per cent threatening not to vote at all.
The MLP also faces electoral losses if it pronounces itself for divorce with 8.1 per cent of its voters threatening to vote for another party and a substantial 23.1 per cent threatening not to vote.
Methodology
A total of 442 respondents were randomly chosen from the telephone directory, with 300 accepting to be interviewed. Respondents were also asked to state how they had voted in the 2003 general election. The survey was held between Monday 22nd and Thursday 24th January. Results were subsequently weighed to reflect the age and sex distribution of the population. The survey has a margin of error of +/-5.7 per cent.
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