The Nationalist party has registered its greatest losses in its middle class heartlands and in Gozo, rather than in the traditional Labour strongholds.
Had the PN experienced the same losses to other parties in working class and southern districts, Labour would have won this election by a small margin. In the traditionally Labour leaning harbour and outer harbour area, which includes the first four districts, PN losses amounted to just 2.4%.
On the other hand, in the traditionally PN-leaning 9th and 10th districts the incumbent party lost a considerable 3.1%. In Gozo, the PN registered a loss of 3.5%.
Labour managed to make more gains in Gozo than in its traditional heartlands. While in the first four districts, which includes traditionally Labour-oriented localities like Cottonera, Zejtun, Marsa and Fgura the MLP gained 1.6%, in Gozo it gained 2.1%.
Although the PN suffered heavily in the 9th and 10th districts, the largest gains in the PN’s heartlands were made by third parties which increased their share of the vote by 1.7%. These were the only two districts where Alternattiva Demokratika got more than 2%.
In this sense AD’s weakness in working-class districts was instrumental in keeping the PN in power. In the first four districts AD barely managed to get 0.8%.
Despite Josie Muscat’s traditional appeal to southern PN voters, Azzjoni Nazzjonali failed to make any substantial inroads in the south where it barely scored 0.5%. It even failed to capitalise on its hardline opposition to the Sant’ Antnin recycling plant in Marsaskala.
The PN’s ability to stop the haemorrhage in working class districts could be a reflection of Lawrence Gonzi’s appeal to working class constituents and the PN’s promise to create more jobs. The fact that before the election the PN scored highly on bread and butter issues while being trounced on corruption was very indicative.
It could also reflect Sant’s inability to generate enthusiasm in Labour strongholds.
On the other hand, losses in the PN’s traditional middle class heartlands confirm the PN’s problems with its more liberal wing.
Losses in Gozo could be a reflection of discontentment in the PN’s conservative rural hinterlands, where the hunting lobby could still sway the vote.
The comparisons were restricted to those districts which have practically remained the same since the last changes to the electoral boundaries in 2006. The only new locality in the first four districts was Labour-leaning Ghaxaq. The only locality to be added to the ninth district was Nationalist-leaning Gharghur.
Since significant changes were made to the other districts it was impossible to make similar comparisons.

jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt