Gerald Fenech on how the Tory/Liberal marginals hold the key to the election result
Every seat appears to count in this battle, which is by far the most exciting UK election since 1992. Polls still favour a hung Parliament, but we could still be in for some surprises come tomorrow evening. The battle is at its most pitched in the so-called Conservative/Liberal marginals where strong support for Liberal leader Nick Clegg seems to have tipped some seats in the Lib Dems’ favour. Here are some of the key seats which the Tories really need to win if they are to avoid the prospect of a hung Parliament
1. Argyll and Bute One of the largest seats in terms of land area, this part of Scotland was safely Conservative for a generation but lately the Liberals have increased their majority with Alan Reid gaining 37% of the vote in 2005. A swing of around 7 per cent would be required for the Conservatives to gain this seat which at this stage looks unlikely although the result could be pretty close.
2. Bournemouth West This relatively safe Tory seat, which includes the popular town centre and tourist areas, was won with 40% of the vote in 2005 with the Liberals close behind on 32%. With Clegg’s popularity on the rise especially among young people, this seat could easily be seen as a test case for the Lib Dems appeal, which will enable them to steal some seats from the Conservatives thus complicating their plans for a small Commons majority.
3. Portsmouth South A mixed constituency which includes some relatively well off areas but also some which are severely deprived, this was easily won by the Liberals in 2005 with 42% of the vote followed by the Conservatives with 34 per cent. A swing of around 4% could deliver this seat to the Tories but the Lib Dems are expected to hold off the challenge here.
4. Eastleigh This is one of those constituencies which the Tories absolutely must win if they have any hope of increasing their chances of an overall majority. It has been occupied by the Liberal Democrats since 1994 when they triumphed in a by election after decades of Tory dominance but with a majority of 568 in the last election and also some boundary changes, this seat should safely turn Conservative again.
5. Wantage This is another safe Conservative constituency which has been held since 1945, so the Liberals really to work hard if they wish to target this Vale of the White Horse area. With a significant Labour vote, boundary changes could work to the Liberals’ advantage if they steal some votes from both parties. But like the Suffolk seat, this is quite a long shot.
6. Suffolk South This is a safe Tory seat at least under the old boundaries and barring any unexpected drop in support, the Conservatives should easily triumph. However some boundary changes could have a notional effect on the result and again the Clegg charisma could sway a few thousand votes but it is a long shot.
7. Broadland This is a new seat which however has a strong Tory tradition, in that it mostly consists of large agricultural areas. The old constituency saw a majority of around 7,000 for the Conservatives with the Lib Dems not too far behind with 30% of the vote. But boundary changes should see David Cameron’s party hold off the Liberal challenge here.
8. York Outer This new constituency is curiously shaped around the inner city of York much like a fortification system, but the Liberals will be sorely tested to hold on to it. A notional majority of around 200 for the Lib/Dems could easily be overturned in favour of the Tories as there are quite a large number of elderly and affluent retirees in the area who favour Cameron’s ‘compassionate conservatism’.
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