Market Commentary | This week: US non-farm payroll

After the recent market downturns, markets took a breath on Friday, mainly because shares in Deutsche Bank recovered from earlier losses on reports that some hedge funds withdrew excess cash and positions held at the bank. Oil also left its mark, with price increase throughout the week, with a crucial upward movement on Wednesday after the agreement between oil producers meeting in Algeria.

On the currency side, the Swiss Franc widely considered as a safe haven took a dive and became the worst performing currency on Friday. The fall might be due to a possible intervention in the foreign exchange market by the Swiss Central bank, putting a cap on the currency’s strength by exchanging to the euro. On the other hand, the New Zealand dollar came out as a top performer, around 0.5% against the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, Precious metals made significant gains as Europe continued to see a selloff in equity markets, led by the losses in the banking sector. Gold rose by 0.4%, while silver jumped approximately 1.7%.

More end of week news comes from Nissan, as it has threatened to scrap a potential new investment in the UK’s biggest car plant unless the British Government pledges to pay back firms for the hit it could take from the UK’s vote to leave the EU. It’s Sunderland plant produces about a third of the UK’s car output and is heavily dependent on exports. 

The coming week will end in the US Non-Farm payrolls on Friday, so the focus would be on how the US economy is performing. Markets are expecting a higher job figure in the month compared to the 151,000 jobs a month earlier. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate seems to be holding at 4.9%. Moreover, a Federal Reserve rate rise by year-end is likely to dominate the first week of October.

UK data also takes the stage, with PMI figures helping to provide more information on the post-Brexit Vote reality. The UK industrial and manufacturing production and trade balance for August 2016 is due on Friday. The trade deficit is expected to narrow while the industrial and manufacturing are expected to see improvement from July Data. This is likely to suggest a resilient UK Economy.

In mainland Europe, the focus will likely to remain on the woes of Deutsche Bank, although it chief executive has sought to reassure that Germany’s largest lender remained robust.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is the sole central bank event, which to a certain extent provides a relief after the excitement of past weeks. No Change is expected from the RBA although the afterward statement may influence the foreign exchange market.

This article was issued by Rodrick Duca, Trader at Calamatta Cuschieri. For more information visit, www.cc.com.mt . The information, views and opinions provided in this article are being provided solely for educational and informational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice, advice concerning particular investments or investment decisions, or tax or legal advice. Calamatta Cuschieri Investment Services Ltd has not verified and consequently neither warrants the accuracy nor the veracity of any information, views or opinions appearing on this website.