Politics’ class divide

As the working class rallies behind Labour, JAMES DEBONO finds the PN facing more trouble among the self-employed and higher-income groups

MaltaToday’s December survey has shown Labour is soundly beating the Nationalist party from within its traditionally working-class constituencies.
But despite the party-in-government’s troubles, the Opposition is failing to take advantage from its shortcomings with the PN’s upper middle-class constituency. And still, Labour is also managing to make inroads amongst the self-employed, and whose traditional loyalty to the PN has been waning over the past decade.
Although Labour has failed to make any inroads among the higher income group, 51% of ABs (managers, directors and the professions) think the country needs a change of government.
But a substantial 14% qualified their ‘yes’ for a change in government… with the paradoxical proviso that they would not like to see Labour in power. This is an indication that although dissatisfaction with the PN government is high, the MLP is still snubbed by many ABs.
Yet despite Labour’s failure to woo the disgruntled among this category, the PN has seen a sharp drop in support among these voters. While 62% of AB voters declared voting for the PN in 2003, only 31% stated that they would do the same in the forthcoming election.
But rather than shifting to Labour, most of these disgruntled former PN voters have joined the non-committed camp, which includes the undecided, those who would not divulge voting intentions and those intending not to vote.
Alternattiva Demokratika, which registers the same support as Labour (11%) among ABs, emerges as a viable option for former PN voters in 2003. Yet AD’s support is practically restricted to this social group.
Among the self-employed category, the MLP is enjoying a 9% advantage over the PN but both parties are way below the level of support they enjoyed in 2003. Among this strategic category a substantial 53% believe that Malta needs a change in government. But this figure includes 9% who would not like to see a Labour-led government.
The C1 group, which includes those in clerical, vocational and technical occupations, is more equivocal in its desire for change. Within this category 56% believe that the country needs a change in government. While 7% add a proviso against a Labour government, 49% seem to favour a change of government irrespective of which party is elected.
Despite this yearning for change among this middle-income group, the PN still enjoys a 10% advantage over the MLP. The survey in fact indicates that the battle for the C1 vote is crucial. While the PN can recover those ABs who yearn for change but are still scared of Labour, the yearning for change among C1s is stronger and less qualified by anti-Labour provisos.
While the PN is struggling to retain its hold on its upper and middle-class constituency, the MLP retains a hold among skilled workers, unskilled workers and the unemployed.
Among the DEs (unskilled workers and unemployed), support for the PN drops to 9% from 24% in 2003. On the other support for the MLP has risen from 39% to 42%. Significantly, 67% of DEs would like to see a change of government irrespective of who is elected in government.
The PN also suffers major losses among skilled workers (C2s) where its support falls from 31% to 18%. But a significant chunk of these voters (55%) would not state their voting intentions for the next election. Surprisingly, the C2 group contains the highest number of non-committed voters in the survey.
The MLP also enjoys a small lead over the PN among pensioners.
Overall the survey shows that while the MLP has consolidated it’s support among working class people, it has so far failed to capitalise on disgruntlement among middle and higher-income groups leaving some space for the Greens to thrive.

jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt