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Pro-divorce PN voters number 26,000 [SURVEY]

MaltaToday’s survey shows that the Nationalist Party’s anti-divorce position may have alienated as many as 26,000 PN voters – or 8% of the voting population – but also that the shrunken PN base has become more conservative.

james
James Debono
15 June 2011, 12:00am


'No' voters are more prominent in the PN's present support (float mouse to second bar to see data)

Pro-divorce “Nationalist” voters could number as much as 26,000, the latest MaltaToday survey on the post-divorce political scenario shows.

The MaltaToday survey conducted among 400 respondents shows that a significant 8.5% of respondents had voted for the Nationalist party in 2008 and voted for divorce in last month’s referendum.

But the number of voters who still intend to vote PN in a forthcoming general election is much lower at 2.5% of the entire sample, which would translate to a paltry 8,000 voters.

Moreover while pro divorce respondents represent 28% of those who voted PN in 2008, these only represent 16% of those who would vote PN in a forthcoming general election. Among respondents who would not necessarily vote PN but prefer Gonzi to Muscat, the figure rises to 19%.

This suggests that the shrunken base of the PN’s electorate is much more conservative than that which re-elected Gonzi by a whisker in 2008 - a new quandary for the PN leadership as the party’s shrunken vote base could be more resistant to moves to lure back more liberal Nationalist voters.

In fact 80% of those who intend to vote PN and 70% of those who have more trust in Lawrence Gonzi than in Joseph Muscat, voted no in the referendum. Only 57% of PN voters in 2008 voted no in the referendum, while 13% abstained. Only 3% of present PN voters abstained.

And while only 40% of 2008 Nationalist voters expect MPs to defy the referendum result by voting against their conscience, this figure rises to 52% among present PN voters as well as among those who prefer Gonzi over Muscat.

It is also significant that while Labour retains 63% of its anti-divorce voters, losing only 10% to the PN, the PN only retains 27% of its pro divorce voters while losing 23% to the PL.

Interestingly the PL manages to offset anti-divorce Labourites now intent on voting PN by attracting exactly the same amount of anti-divorce respondents who voted PN in 2008. In this way the same amount (15.3%) of no voters who voted PL in 2008 will vote PL again in the forthcoming election.

The PL’s voting base is only slightly more liberal than it was in 2008. While 69% of Labour’s 2008 voters voted for divorce, the figure rises to 72% among its current crop of voters and to 71% among those who prefer Muscat to Gonzi.

Survey Methodology

The survey was held between Friday 3rd and Friday 10th June.  Respondents were asked to state their present voting intentions as well as how they had voted in 2008 general election and divorce referendum. A total of 400 respondents chosen from printed and on-line directories accepted to be interviewed by telephone.  The survey has a margin of error of +/-4.9%.

james
James Debono is MaltaToday's chief reporter on environment, planning and land use issues, ...
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albert leone
Dak li jigri meta jkollok mexxej li ma jiehux decizjoni u hu bla direzzjoni u bla vizjoni!
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miriam borg
"Lupu liebes ta naghga!" Kemm smajniha din il-frazi dan l-ahhar. Pero' zgur li ma tixraq lil hadd hlief lil P.N. ghax tul is-snin libes ta' naghga biex taparsi sar il-partit li jhobb u jaqbez ghal haddiem imma issa din il-libsa waqat ghal kollox minn fuqu u kulhadd induna x'partit hu, Partit tal-hbieb tal-hbieb u partit ta ftit fidili li jbellghulhom kollox!!
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josephine attard
@briffy iringrazzja li kien gvern laburista fil passat li ghamel il pensjonijiet, ghax kieku tinsab mejjet bil guh, jew tmur thabbat id-door to door biex ituk il karita. jew wara l-bieb ta tarzna it-talaba li kolla kienu taht borg olivier, int fej taf xlivell ta edukazzjoni ghandi jien skuzi? ghal grazzja t'alla dejjem imxejt fhajjti u qatt ma gejt bzonn hadd. tigi tghajjar li delivery mans injoranti u li huma ghazzenin. hekk niehu pjaccir ghax tkomplu turu kemm mintomx partit tolleranti u hsibkom biss ghal lerba tal klikka. forsi int qed tiehu il pensjoni. forsi xi wihed min uliedek jew ulied uliedek mela qed xi chairman bxi salarju ta xi 50,000 euro jew forsi ha xi kuntrat mela mandt xi ministru min jaff. imma min klimek tider li int wihed min dawk li donnok tibza li il PN jitlef il poter. ghax hlief tidefendih fkollox u tmaqdar il PL fkollox mintix. il passat mhux garanzija tal futur habib hahahaha
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miriam borg
@ Briffy Inkredibbli hej xi bniedem int!! Tigi hawn biex tghajjar in-nies! Mela xi duzunur ghax tahdem deliveryman? U fejn taf x'inhi l-livell ta skola ta dak li jkun? Taf kemm hawn nies li qed jahdmu xoghol li ma jirriflettix il-livell ta edukazzjoni li ghandhom ghax ma jsibux? Mela biex inkunu bravi irridu naqblu mieghek ? Iggieled l-argument jekk int kapaci ( li zgur m'intix ghax m'ghandekx ragunijiet biex tiggieled). U se nikkwotak ghax urejtni x'livell ta edukazzjoni ghandek tal-hamallagni " min iboss b'sorm haddiehor huwa buffu, parassita u jnizzel il-livell ta l-ghixien." Qed tara int stess sibtha r-raguni tas-sitwazzjoni tal-pajjiz - ghax il-gvern tieghek ghadu s'issa jboss b'sorm haddiehor cioe' bil-progetti li halla l-Gvern Laburista u xeba jerda minnhom.
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Isabella Camilleri
@JGEPM...Business people have always been known to moan and grown. And bdw, in Malta somebody who buys and sells is called a businessman, a pjazzista is called a businessman. We have lots of what are called wheeler dealers, who are NOT businessmen. They are usually people who did not complete their studies and for lack of education and skills they are not good at anything else. A lot of these characters try to get away with not paying VAT, underdeclaring their income for tax purposes, use all sorts of tricks to cheat the unwary. If there are people who are not making a decent living they should pack up and do something else if they are capable of doing anything else.
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Isabella Camilleri
@talmonte....Jien semplici pensjonant..ma jien l'ebda wiehed minn dawk li qed tghid. U l-mara tieghi hija pensjonanta wkoll. It-tnejn li ahna hdimna u bl-istudju taghna u l-pozizzjoni li kelna qabal ma rtirajna ghandna pensjoni tajba u nghixu komdi.. Hadd ma tana xejn u qatt ma stennejna li xi hadd itina xi haga b'xejn; li ghamilna ghamilna bl-gharaq ta' xbina. Jekk ghalik id-dinja maghmula biss minn dawk li qed tghid, turi kemm ghandek idea zbaljata tan-nies u kemm il-livell ta' hsiebek huwa baxx. Barra li m'ghandekx edukazzjoni tajba, ax kieku m'intix deliveryman - ghandek mohh ta' wiehed li jahseb bi ideajat socjalisti u parrasiti - li huma kwazi l-istess, ghax is-socjalizmu dejjem ghamel nies ghazzenin u li jistennew li haddiehor jerfaghhom u jwiznhom minn meta jitwieldu sakemm imutu. Idejat bhal living wage u affarijiet stupidi ohrajn. Is-socjalisti jridu nies li jieklu minn idejhom biex jibqghu fidili lejhom hajjithom kollha. Min irid jiffanfru jrid ikollu biex. Min m'ghandux mhux jghix ma min ghandu kif kien jghid Mintoff, imma jistudja u jsir skilled, ikollu salarju ahjar imbaghad jibda' jiffanfru bi flusu mhux bi flus haddiehor. Min iboss b'sorm haddiehor huwa buffu, parassita u jnizzel l-livell tal-ghixien tal-pajjiz flok jikkontribwixxi.
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Nick Bilocca
Gonzi's only chance of regaining any respect is to send Eddie where he belongs and proceed with the mandated divorce legislation. he needs to declare forthwith that PN MPs will only be allowed to vote Yes or otherwise make themselves absent. And he needs to be quick - very quick.
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josephine attard
@briffy ekonomist miniex fuq di nista naqbel mighek, pero milli jidher int professur tal bigilla, jekk mintiex xi wihed min dawk li hadt xi kuntrat li jiswa il miljuni, jew li thadem xi 1000 ruh u jekk il gvern johoda kontra tighek tgheddu li titfallu nies kolla il barra u titfahom jiregistraw, jekk mintiex xi wihed li mort xi safra bxej mal ministru fuq xi ajruplan privat ta kuntrattur, jew jekk il mara tighek mhijx dik li ma thalaxs il-vat ax tahdem andt il ministru. imma li hu zgur int wihed li dahhal rasek taht ir-ramel u antikwat ghax hlief narak takkuza lil PL fuq il passat, ma tghamielx, mela fi kliem hafna nies imlahqin fil PN jghidu li Alfred Sant naddaf il PL u int tibqa takkuza il PL bil Passat, int wihed min dawk limzazzen li tibla kull statistika tal gvern. mhux listatistika li todd, izda il purchase power, ejja morru nduru dawra mal hwinet ha tismahom igorru, jien niltaqa mahhom ta kulljum fi xoghol tighei ta delivery man.
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audra micallef
Briffy - don't try to be dishonest. The Greek Labour Government's economic ills are all a consequence of the squandering carried out by the previous Christian Democrats who are the brothers of our PN. At least if you choose to be a PN apologist, please don't twist facts. You can be as dishonest to yourself as much as you see fit, but please respect our opinions even if they sound as bad music to your ears.
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miriam borg
@Briffy Skond int ahna qed nghixu fl-ishab....jista jkun!!!! Imma ha nghidlek int qed tghix fil-qamar tafx u kumbinazzjoni il-bierah kellek il-festa ta l-eklissi!! U ZGUUUUUR hadd minn nies li jikteb hawn ma jifhem fl-ekonomija, int biss tifhem! Dnub li siehbek il-Gonz m'ghamilx lilek ministru tal-finanzi flok lil dak li ra l-Madonna tibki!!!! Forsi konna nkunu ahjar??????? Rigward li mmorru nahdmu barra hahaha intom hekk tixtiequ tehilsu minna kif ghamiltu fis-sittinijiet imma f'wicckom se jibqa ghax hawn se nibqghu niehdu gost naraw lil shabek ikomplu jaqaw ghaz-zufjett!!!
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Joe Bugeja
Eddie Fenech Adami no longer represent the majority of the maltese thinking, he just needs to get over it. The larger maltese nation is what counts, not what Mr. fenech Adami says. That what a democracy is all about. If he doesn't like it, too bad. He just has one vote like everyone else. Period. Enough of this.
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Joe Bugeja
Believe me, they number half of the PN. I know many people who are in favor and voted the line. And those 28 % who did not vote are mainly pro, they just didn't cast the vote. Let's all grow up once and for all. and have this over with so that the maltese nation can move forward.
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18, 7th June 1919 Street Victoria
@ Briffy Tajjeb taghmel tibghat kummenti bhall dawn biex b`hekk infakkruk d differenza bejn l PL u l PN .Aqra x`qallek JGPEM. Ghall li jista jkun int ma hintix xi wiehed li l familjari tieghek inghataw xi plot tal gvern b`xejn u 5 elef lira maghhom wkoll li kienu jkunu bizzejjed ghall gebel u saqaf. gvern tal PL dejjem ghen liz zghir u holoq l middle class .Issa x`ghanna min hu geddumu fix xghir u min lanqas loqma hobs surit n nies ma ghandu.
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Mario Spiteri
briffy taf xma ghanniex PAGI GHOLJIN IL HADDIEMA BHAL MA GHANDHOM GOL PAJJIZI EWROPEJ ara siehbek Dr Gonzipn ghalih u ghal klikka tieghu fosthom l-aktar zewg ministri ARROGANTI li QATT kella Malta DR Agostino Gatt u il PULLCINELL l-iehor Dr Tonio Fenech li FTAHAR fuq it Television li lis seftura ta MARTU ma JHALSILHIEX BOLLA u li mar jara lil Arsenal jilghabu ma shabu FENECH U GASAN mar bil Jet taghhom meta kienet qed TITRESSAQ LIGI rigward il loghob u meta dawn iz zewg negozjanti Fenech u Gasan huma imdahhin fdan il BUSINESS Xi TRIDNA INHARSU lejn il Grecja Spanja u il Potugall @briffy inharsu lejn PAJJIZNA DAK ID DEJN KOLLU li ghanna BIEX TAHSEB LI IRRIDU INHALSU DEJNA Mintiex tara xPULCINELL TA GVERN QIED IMMEXXINA SER IKOLNA INHALSU SOMMA FLUS LIL Kumpanija ta TRASPORT ARRIVA LI KUNBINAZJONI HIJA TA FENECH IN NEGOZJANT SOMMA FLUS GHAX MHUX SER JGHADDU MIN BISAZZA STREET TA SLIEMA qied tara kemm jaf jghamlu in negozju DR AGOSTINO GATT Nahseb li qied TGHIX FIL QAMAR briffy ghax ma tmurx titkellem man negozjanti kullhadd ghidlek li HUWA IMSALLAB BIL KONTIJIET TA DAWL
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anna caruana
@briffy. Dejjem bl-istess mantra. Trying to brainwash us, and instead you're getting brainwashed. Hawn ha biex ikollok x'tomghod!!! http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20110615/local/Consumer-confidence-plunges-to-record-low.370618 Issa erga ejja ppriedka hawn. U kompli dahhaq!
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Isabella Camilleri
Iddahhqx nies employee...turix li ma tifhimx fl-ekonomija Bil-banalati li tghidu kollu, il-Maltin qatt ma kienu ahjar, kulhadd liebes tajjeb, karozzi kullimkin - 300 000 karozza, fejn qatt kienu f'Malta? , l-anqas tinzel mis-second ghal-third gear, toroq sbih u bi standard ewropew, Zebbug/Rabat/ Mgarr; Marsascala, Zurrieq, Mdina bypass,, fjuri u gonna ndaf u mzejnin, nofs il-Maltin isifru ull sena, sser ikollna bus service mill-aqwa, kwiet u paici u serhan tal-mohh, l-anqas strike wiehed, minn jitlef l-impieg isibuhulu iehor, qghad ;-iktar baxx fl-EU, anqas mil Germanja. Hares lejn il-Grecja, Spanja u l-Portugal; jew ma' tarawhx news hlif Super One? Trid tkun tghix fis-shab biex tgerger fuq il-hajja f'Malta. Jekk tghid lli Malta stragi, kif ma tmurx tghix xi mkin iehor? Issa wiehed jista' jahdem fl-Ewropa kollha. Kif ma smajnix eluf ta' Maltin li marru jahdmu barra minn Malta? Kollha hawn jibqghu, basta jgergru u jokorbu bil-prezz tad-diesel u tad-dawl u l-ilma u jirreptu x'jghidu l-oppozizzjoni qishom pappagalli.
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Hans Weenink
fir-referendum kellna lil John Zammit ta copy and paste, u tar-rebha garantita. Issa ghandna lil Briffy li skont hu qed nixghu fil-genna ta l-art. Dejjem issib xi joker f'kull suggett..u m'nalla ta. Keep it up Briffy. Int wiehed will ftit li kuntent tghix go Gonzistan!!
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Joe Borg Camilleri
gonzipn laham skadutt. ezat bhal zmien fredu sant. inies xebaw u dan jaff gonzi li qijad jamel jiprova juza kull cans biex jider tajeb imma jaf u meta ikun riqed biex qijad ikollu il holm. holma li tilef u kull cajta li isier dejjem jisema ismu. issa ftit xur fadal forsi lahar gaddafi imut u jerga juhu ftit nifs imma xorta inies kontriek gonzi ghax ma kontx kap ta ezempju.
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Joseph Agius
26,000 votes represents around 8 seats in Parliament. That is really massive whe you consider that last time around 1500 votes (that is half a seat) kept the facade together. And yet in spite of this the PN think tank seems intent on sealing it's own fate by burying its head in the sand. Maybe I will try spelling it out to Dr. Gonzi. It's not just about the Economy stupid!! ( with apologies to Bill Clinton)
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Isabella Camilleri
@ talmonte...int xi ekonomist? Jekk mintix u nahseb li m'intix kif trid titkellem u tghid li l-gvern falla bil-kbir? Falla meta l-ekonomija tal-pajjiz mixja tajjeb u dan meta kien hawn l-ikbar ricessjoni li qatt rat id-dinja? Malta ghandha A credit rating, jekk ghalik dan ifisser xi haga. Falla l-gvern tal-Grecja li hu socjalist, kif jigri dejjem meta jkunu fil-gvern. Falla l-partit is-socjalista ta' Spanja u ghalhekk warrbuh minn nofs. Ma tridx tghid li jekk il-prezz tal-fuel jew ta' l-ilma u d-dawl joghla, il-gvern ikun falla? Anzi jmissek taf li Malta ma tistax tikkontroilla il-prezz taz-zejt u ghalhekk 30 000 familja - wiehed minn kull hamsa - il-gvern tahom discount vouchers biex itaffilhom dan il-piz. Ma tistennix jewwilla li jkun hawn xi gvern f'sensih li jaghti discount vouchers fuq id-diesel u l-petrol, biex kulhadd joqghod jaqghad ma dwar Malta u haddiehor ihallas ghalih. Iktar ma tixtri diesel iktar ghandek thallas taxxa; hekk sew. Min hu sinjur u jixtri 1000 litru diesel fis-sena, ghandu jhallas izjed taxxa minn dak li jikkonsma 500 litru.Din bhal min jaqla' l-izjed ihallas l-iktar income tax u VAT. Fejn qatt smajna partit socjalista jghid li l-income tax ghandha tinzel minn 35% ghal 25%. Mela hekk sewwa, skond Joseph Muscat, ghandna nnaqsu l-income tax ghal min jaqla' izjed minn Eur40 000 fis-sena. Dan partit tal-haddiem jew partit tas-sinjuri? Dan xi dbazwir hu?
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Anthony Camilleri
We need to get it into our thick skulls to vote on the spur of the moment, and not to sell our souls to either political party! i.e. today, I vote PN and tomorrow, because of something the PN did that I disagree with, I vote PL. So damn what??!! I vote with my heart, and look after numero uno - ME. Once the Maltese voting population grasp this basic premise, we will advance as a country and MPs won't risk missing 90% of Parliamentary sittings, believe me. Once we show them that nothing is no longer assured, they will (FINALLY) start to give us the service we deserve. It's already slowly (albeit surely) starting to happen. Get your asses into gear.
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marcell mejlaq
Trollface, Ghandek ragun habib. Anzi maghhom zied ukoll lill dawk li se jibqghu maghrufa bhala LAHAM MIBJUGH, i.e. JPO, JM, JPF. Dawn ma' tistax tghid li ghandom kuxjenza. L-ewwel interess taghhom huwa li l-PN jibqa' ta'.......GONZIPN!!
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marcell mejlaq
Trollface, Ghandek ragun habib. Anzi maghhom zied ukoll lill dawk li se jibqghu maghrufa bhala LAHAM MIBJUGH, i.e. JPO, JM, JPF. Dawn ma' tistax tghid li ghandom kuxjenza. L-ewwel interess taghhom huwa li l-PN jibqa' ta'.......GONZIPN!!
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Joseph MELI
@trollface. I voted for everyone on different occassion. Vote with your mind.
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josephine attard
@ trollface milli stajt nifhem li int indunajt li dan il-gvern mhux mixxi tajjeb, ghalekk ghandek tivotta lil PL ghax din mux kwistjoni ta demm u mhux ta demm. din kwistjoni ta l-ahjar fil pajjiz. u sissa l-ahjar tmexxija tider li hi dik ta joseph muscat. dan mhux tim tal football li norbtu qalbna mahom. daw laffarijiet irridu nideciduwom bmohhna u mhux bqalbna da lmessagg ghandu jmur ghal dawk in-nazzjonalisti li fil fond ta qalbom jaffu li il gvern falla bil kbir. u li dan huwa l-ghar gvern ta daw lahhar 20 sena. ghalekk irridu naraw li il pajjizna intuh l-ahjar. u gonzi intajruh min noffs ax zmienu spicca.
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Mark Camilleri
@maltesecross Nifhmek x'qed tghid u taghmel sens imma demmi ma jtinix naqleb il-vot :/
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Paul Debono
@trollface I thought of doing the same as you, but that means only -1 to the PN. I decided for my very first time to vote PL so there is a -1 and a +1 and be more sure to remove Gonzi and his lot. I shall never vote PN while Gonzi remains at the helm
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Joseph MELI
So what? It just confirms what we always knew.
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Mark Camilleri
I won't be voting PN again until the holy trinity (Gonzi, Tonio, Austin) leave. I probably won't vote PL, maybe AD will get my vote.