How losses in Gozo and the south cancelled the PN’s recovery in the north

The PN has recovered some lost ground in the five northern districts (8th to 12th), lost further ground in the seven southern districts (1st-7th) and experienced significant losses in Gozo.  

On the other hand Labour registered small gains in the south, registered slight losses in the northern districts and registered significant gains in Gozo.

An analysis of the result shows the PN losing 0.3 points in the first to seventh districts, falling from 35.3% to 35%, gaining 1.9 points in the eighth to 12th districts, where its support rose from 53.2% to 55.1% and losing 2.2 points in Gozo, where the party has lost its historical majority.

The PN gained most in those districts where AD experienced its most severe losses.  In fact a 1.7 points drop in AD support in the 8th to 12th districts was corresponded by the PN’s 1.9 points gain. In the 10th district, where AD lost 2.2 points, the PN gained 2.9 points. 

On the other hand AD only lost 0.5 of a point in the first seven districts, where the PN also lost 0.3 of a point. The PL gained 0.4 of a point in the seven southern districts, lost 0.8 of a point in the 8th to 12th districts and gained 2.1 points in Gozo.

A comparison based on individual districts is more difficult due to the changes made to the composition of the districts. By grouping the districts in three clusters one can have a better idea of the geographic split which shows the PN making a few inroads in the north but failing to show any signs of recovery in Gozo and the south.

But these clusters do show some variations. Most of the favourable swing to the PN occurred in the eighth, ninth and tenth districts. In the eighth district, which includes Birkirkara, the PN gained 3.3 points while Labour lost 2.4.

In the ninth district, whose composition remained the same as in 2013, the PN gained 2.3 points and Labour lost 0.8 of a point. This suggests that a slump in AD’s vote of 1.4 points benefitted the PN.  

The 10th district, which saw minor changes through inclusion of part of Naxxar, the PN gained 2.9 points, Labour lost 1.2 points and AD lost 2.2 points.

But in the 11th district Labour gained more than the PN. While Labour’s vote increased by 0.7 of a point, the PN’s vote only increased by 0.5.  This could be an indication that AD lost votes to both parties in this district. A similar situation occurs in the 12th district, which includes St Paul’s Bay.  

But despite recovering some lost ground in the northern districts the PN failed to make any gains in the south except in the fifth district, where it gained 1.5 points and Labour lost 1.2.  

Interestingly, although the PD did not contribute to increase the PN’s overall result, the PN fared best in those districts where Marlene Farrugia contested and made a good showing (821 first count votes in the fifth and 1,061 on the 10th).  

But Gozo represented the worst result for the PN. There, the PN lost 190 votes, seeing its percentage slip by 2.2 points from 2013. On the other hand Labour gained a relatively huge 922 votes over 2013.

Moreover even in the northern districts PN support remains a far cry from its 2008 level, six points fewer than in 2008 in the first seven districts, five points under its 2008 level in the 8th to 12th districts and 7.5 points under its 2008 level in Gozo.