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Labour has restored a 7-point lead over the PN, up two points from last week, with a surge in undecided voters among respondents who said they voted PN in the 2013 election.

MaltaToday’s survey this week shows both parties however losing support, struggling to mobilise a segment of their 2013 voters: a sign that the European elections will be determined by the extent to which Joseph Muscat and Simon Busuttil can win over their former voters.

More than one-fifth of PN and PL voters in 2013 are now undecided or intent on not voting.

But the survey also shows Labour struggling in retaining “switchers” – the voters who chose the PN in 2008 and then changed over to Labour in 2013 – a volatile category whose aspirations are different from the Labour hard-core to which Muscat appealed when describing disgraced candidate Cyrus Engerer as a ‘soldier of steel’.

Labour is retaining the same percentage of 2013 voters in the last week but also losing some support to Alternattiva Demokratika among switchers, more of which are now undecided.

Crucially for Muscat, he leads Opposition leader Simon Busuttil by 16 points in the trust barometer – up 3 points from last week. 

An interesting factor is that 5.5% of those respondents who still trust Muscat more than Busuttil, are either undecided or intent on not voting.

And 5% of those who voted PN in 2013 now trust Muscat more than Busuttil, but then only 1% intend voting for Labour next week.

Former Labour prime minister Alfred Sant retains pole position for the first MEP seat, while incumbent MEP Roberta Metsola is the PN’s clear favourite, followed by incumbents David Casa (PN) and Marlene Mizzi (PL) and newcomer Miriam Dalli (PL).