Polls put EPP ahead of socialists for the first time

Surveys collated by Electio2014, a digital platform developed by VoteWatch Europe, has placed the centre-right European Peoples’ Party ahead of the centre-left Socialists & Democrats for the first time in its European Parliament elections forecast.

The two largest groups now stand about 13 seats ahead, on 222 to 209, pollsters Kevin Cunningham and Simon Hix said.

“This change over the past two weeks is a result of a significant rise in support for EPP parties in Poland, perhaps related to insecurity as a result of the crisis in Ukraine. EPP parties have also made gains in France and picked up one more seat in several other member states. Meanwhile, S&D parties have declined slightly in Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, France, and Greece,” Cunningham and Hix said.

But the difference between the two groups is still reasonably small given the margins of error in the polls: for example, on the basis of 1,000 simulations of what might happen in the elections, there is still a 25% probability that S&D will be larger than EPP.

Regarding the other groups, liberals ALDE remain just ahead of the European left GUE, which now has a 24% probability of being larger than ALDE.

Overall, the three centrist political groups – EPP, S&D, ALDE – would be down considerably on their current standing: from 72% of MEPs in the current parliament, to 65% in the new parliament.  Of the remaining MEPs, the current forecast has 12% for the two other groups on the left (GUE and Greens-European Free Alliance), 10% for the two other groups on the right (European conservatives and right-wing Europe of Freedom and Democracy), and just under 13% who are not currently members of any political group, and who are mostly on the far right.

“Our latest forecast suggests that Le Pen and Wilders will have enough MEPs from enough member states to form a group: with approximately 38 MEPs from 7 member states.  This forecast is based on the five other national parties who have suggested that they will join the French FN and Dutch PVV: Austrian FPÖ, Belgian VB, Italian LN,  Slovak SNS, and Swedish SD.  The make-up of this prospective group has not yet been finalised, however,” the Electio pollsters said.

Composition of the European Parliament 2009-2014