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PL clearly in the lead but PN edges closer

Opposition trusted more than Gonzi in running economy

James Debono
28 November 2011, 12:00am
Muscat in 7-point trust lead over Gonzi, but PM improves trust rating

Opposition Leader Joseph Muscat has retained a 7-point lead in his trust rating over Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi. Muscat enjoyed a similar lead in a similar poll held in September.

This suggests that events in the past two months, which saw the government surviving an unprecedented vote of confidence in parliament and presenting a middle class friendly budget have not significantly altered the political balance. 

But the survey suggests that the Nationalist Party has consolidated its vote base, which is more united behind the PN leader than ever before.  This is confirmed by a sharp drop in the number of former PN voters who intend not to vote in the next election.

This emerges from a MaltaToday survey conducted among 450 respondents held between last Wednesday 16 and Tuesday 22 November.

While commanding a significant lead over the incumbent, Muscat's trust rating has remained lower than the record levels registered in a June poll held in the aftermath of the divorce referendum.

Moreover, Gonzi registers his highest trust rating since September 2008 -six months after winning the general election.

Compared to the September poll, both party leaders have registered a 3-point increase in their trust levels. This came in the wake of a sharp 10-point drop in undecided respondents. This could reflect a rise in the political temperature in the past weeks and is an indication that political parties are closing ranks. Muscat, who saw his trust rating slipping by 7 points between June and September, has recovered 3 points in the past two months.

On the other hand, Gonzi has registered the second consecutive increase in his trust rating, which is now 7 points higher than in June. 

As regards voting intentions, the PN has seen its support rising by 3 points while the PL gained 2 points.

The PL now enjoys a 7-point lead down from the 9-point lead it enjoyed in September. Support for the Greens remains stable at 1.5%.

The survey also shows the PN managing to keep a larger percentage of its voters in the 2008 general election, in a clear indication that the PN has started to consolidate its position among its core supporters. 

The survey also shows that Joseph Muscat is more trusted with running the country's economy than Gonzi, albeit by a narrow 3-point margin which falls within the survey's margin of error.

Class divisions

The survey reveals a deep chasm in the political allegiances of different social classes. While the upper and middle classes (AB and C1) clearly favour the Nationalist Party and prefer Lawrence Gonzi to Joseph Muscat, working class respondents (C2 and DE) favour Labour and Muscat. Pensioners and the self-employed are more balanced in their political orientation.

These results come in the wake of a budget which largely benefited middle class categories.

Among AB and C1, two categories, which include managers, members of the professions and white-collar workers, Gonzi enjoys a 21-point lead over Muscat. 

Among these categories, the Nationalist Party also enjoys a 14-point lead over Labour. Support for the Greens is completely restricted to this class.

On the other hand, Muscat trounces Gonzi among working class respondents. 

Among C2s and Des - two categories which include skilled workers, unskilled workers and people on social benefits - Muscat enjoys a trust rating of 55% against Gonzi's 10%. Yet a significant 19% trusted none of the two leaders. Among the self-employed, Gonzi enjoys an 8-point lead over Muscat, but the PL still leads the PN by a similar margin. This is an indication that Gonzi is significantly more popular than his party among this strategic category of voters, which is being courted by Joseph Muscat.

Among pensioners, Muscat enjoys a narrow 4-point lead while Labour enjoys a higher 6-point lead.

PN consolidating core vote

The survey confirms that the PN still suffers from a significant haemorrhage of voters towards the PL, but less former PN voters are considering not voting in the next election. Moreover, for the first time in the past three years, the survey also shows a small but significant swing from Labour to the PN.

In fact, while 9% of respondents who voted for the PN in 2008 would now vote for the Labour Party, 3% of respondents who voted for the PL in 2008 would now vote for the Nationalist Party.

And while 10% of PN voters in 2008 trust Muscat more than Gonzi, 4% of PL voters in 2008 trust Gonzi more than Muscat.

Significantly, the number of respondents who voted PN in 2008 who now intend not to vote has fallen drastically from 13% in September to just 5% now. This suggest that the party is recovering from internal divisions at a grassroots level. The number of undecided PN voters has also slipped by 3 points since September.

Overall, the PN now retains 62% of its 2008 vote cohort compared to just 55% in September. Gonzi also enjoys the trust of 72% of PN voters in 2008.

Labour also manages to retain more of its voters in the latest survey. While in September it retained 79% of its 2008 voters, the percentage has now risen to 81%. Muscat enjoys the trust of 86% of PL voters in 2008.

Muscat more trusted on economy

Despite weathering the international economic crisis, Gonzi is slightly less trusted than Muscat in running the country's economy and finances.

Respondents were asked which of the two leaders they trust most in running the economy and finances.

While 33% opted for the Prime Minister, 36% opted for the opposition leader. Gonzi's trust rating on the economy was 2 points higher than his general trust rating (31%) while Muscat's trust rating on the economy was 2 points lower than his general trust rating (38%).

A survey held in September had shown while 27% prefer the PN's economic and financial policies, only 18% prefer Labour's policies.

This suggests that Muscat is considered as more trustworthy than his own party in economic and financial matters. This could explain why Muscat is projecting himself more as a candidate presenting himself for a Presidential election than as a party leader in a parliamentary system.

Methodology

A total of 652 respondents were contacted by telephone between Wednesday 16 and Tuesday 22 November. The survey was held after the Budget and Joseph Muscat's speech, but before the Prime Minister's reply. 450 accepted to be interviewed. The results were weighed to reflect the age and population balance of population. The survey has a margin of error of /- 4.6%.

 

 

James Debono is MaltaToday's chief reporter on environment, planning and land use issues, ...
EMANUEL CINI
Also sorry but bored with this conversation with you. I see I am the last out, as I was the last in. I leave you the field to elve elve and elve till you elve yourself into madness. Adios mono.
EMANUEL CINI
Well here is a very literate Mintiffjan who lives in the present and looks to the future. So ELF is what I say. Plus your sense of what is funny is so mediocre that I would call it a new low. From black to brown. Get it? Now that's funny. Get a life man and stop whining about the past...it's dead and gone, a bit like the PN we once knew.
Antoine Vella
Emanuel Cini, the word is "elve" because that is how the semi-literate Mintoffjani spelled it originally and we still use it that way to make fun of them.
Antoine Vella
Emanuel Cini, the word is "elve" because that is how the semi-literate Mintoffjani spelled it originally and we still use it that way to make fun of them.
EMANUEL CINI
Eh. Sorry. Wrong timeline. Retired from porn after 2 years stint in 2006 and went back to my career. In 2008 I moved to Malta again...
EMANUEL CINI
You say ELVE I say ELF!! To each his own Mr. Vella.
EMANUEL CINI
Again! Assumptions, assumptions, assumptions!!Mr. Vella, my late dad did not write here as he did not know how to write. Still he got his transfer from security to head of refuse collection the day the HODOR came to power even though he was already a sick man. For your info as a porn star i was living in NY, LA, or mostly the divine Palm Springs and not the moon. And for your further information, I retired from porn after a 2 year stint in 2008, in on top and out on top, and went back to mt carrier. As for the last 3 years I have been living in Malta and not the moon either. So sorry to disappoint you Mr. Vella but again like your friend is sahhara tal Bidnijja, you got it all wrong, as this is oneMintoffian elf who does write his full name.
EMANUEL CINI
Again! Assumptions, assumptions, assumptions!!Mr. Vella, my late dad did not write here as he did not know how to write. Still he got his transfer from security to head of refuse collection the day the HODOR came to power even though he was already a sick man. For your info as a porn star i was living in NY, LA, or mostly the divine Palm Springs and not the moon. And for your further information, I retired from porn after a 2 year stint in 2008, in on top and out on top, and went back to mt carrier. As for the last 3 years I have been living in Malta and not the moon either. So sorry to disappoint you Mr. Vella but again like your friend is sahhara tal Bidnijja, you got it all wrong, as this is oneMintoffian elf who does write his full name.
Antoine Vella
For the benefit of Emanuel Cini and other porn stars who have been living on the moon for the past couple of years, an Elve (not elf) is a Mintoffian who writes anonymously in the papers and online, using several false names to give the impression that the pro-Labour opinion they are expressing – often ungrammatically - is shared by many. Elves were organised formally in the run-up to the 2008 elections and have remained informally active since then. As an example, Emanuel Cini used to post on this website as Manuel or Emanuel.
EMANUEL CINI
There is such a thing as left-wing chic you know. Why don't you read The Rococo Marxists by Tom Wolfe and learn something new, or maybe you know already, hence the green, The envy, Elf. Still we will keep the projected title you give us as we all know what we are and you know your time is up. So from elf to elf: elf yourself for Christmas. I always do.
EMANUEL CINI
What on earth is all this "Mintoffjani" and "elves" crap. There may have been a time once when people who voted Labour were not well educated, but seriously, do you Nationalists think you still have the monopoly or the upper hand in how highly educated one is? It not only shows you are all highly stupid but way passe. As for Mintoffjan; Proud to be! As for elves; Well as Robert Helpman told a London cabbie that he forgot his wand in the cab (meaning his umbrella). Helpman replied; May you turn into shit!! SO WHAT DOES THAT MAKE YOU? YOU ARE THE ELVES AS ELVES ARE HODOR, LI8KE ALL PN PEOPLE I KNOW. HODOR WITH HATE AND HODOR WITH ENVY!! Now go eat rancid cabbage. LOSERS!!!
EMANUEL CINI
What on earth is all this "Mintoffjani" and "elves" crap. There may have been a time once when people who voted Labour were not well educated, but seriously, do you Nationalists think you still have the monopoly or the upper hand in how highly educated one is? It not only shows you are all highly stupid but way passe. As for Mintoffjan; Proud to be! As for elves; Well as Robert Helpman told a London cabbie that he forgot his wand in the cab (meaning his umbrella). Helpman replied; May you turn into shit!! SO WHAT DOES THAT MAKE YOU? YOU ARE THE ELVES AS ELVES ARE HODOR, LI8KE ALL PN PEOPLE I KNOW. HODOR WITH HATE AND HODOR WITH ENVY!! Now go eat rancid cabbage. LOSERS!!!
thesquirrel
Hemm x'inhu jaghmlilkom Franco Debono Sur Vella? Tghid se jerga jsejjah vot ta' fiducja issa l-Prim Ministru jekk jghaddi l-vot bi zbrixx? Jew imur ghal elezzjoni mill-ewwel? Il-vapur qed jeghreq.
thesquirrel
@Maltese U hallina, gej bil-puliti. Mhux ovvja li tipikament il-Laburisti huma lower class, il-PL huwa l-partit tal-haddiema storikament. Pero, ma tistax tiggeneralizza. Jien kont l-Universita` wkoll u naf hafna nies li ghandhom edukazzjoni terzjarja li huma Laburisti. Ma jurux pero, ghax jigu ddiskriminati. Imma l-aqwa li intom tahsbu li n-Nazzjonalisti biss puliti u edukati. Kuntent int, kuntent kulhadd. @Antoine Vella Ma nafx kif wasalt ghal din il-konkluzjoni zbaljata u vojta li jien Mintoffjan. Anzi, kont l-ewwel persuna li vvutajt IVA u PN fl-2003. Fl-2008 ma vvutajtx ghax ridt il-bidla imma ma ridtx nivvota lil Alfred Sant. Din id-darba jiddispjacini imma nahseb li zmien il-PN ghadda.
Antoine Vella
Squirrel (and other Elves), it's true then that you cannot read. Gej bis-senior management postion l-ieħor. Read my original comment again. I know Labout will win the next election. THAT WAS MY WHOLE POINT. In spite of this, I and others like me are not afraid of showing our names and openly defying you Mintoffjani.
Claude Sapiano
@thesquirrel People like you make me laugh. You always say that Labour is going to win and then you lose. Why dont you learn from the Nationalists - they never say that they are going to win but they win. I even notice it from where I work - Labour voters are all the time speaking as if they are the best and the Nationalists as always stay quiet because as usual they are more polite. Even if Labour win they would have done nothing great - they lost practically all elections since 1981. By the way did you notice that university educated and middle-class voters favour the PN? -this says a lot.
thesquirrel
@Antoine Vella Hares sew lejn dan is-survey u kompli nharaq. Il-verita hi li kontra leader li ma kellux il-fiducja tan-nies, bhal Alfred Sant, irbahtu biss bi ftit voti. Nerga nghidlek, hares sew lejn il-figuri u jekk int intelligenti bhal habiba tieghek fuq runningcommentary.com tinduna li din id-darba m'ghandkomx cans. Insellimlek.
fufa
Sorry Ant Vella. NOT pretending that there are many of them. YES there are really many of them. You should have realised by now because you got the perfect answer in the EP elections and the divorce referendum. Mr Vella, the problem with you and your party is that you want to do todays job with yesterdays people and you pretend to be here tomorrow.
Antoine Vella
The real reason Mintoffjani use fake names online is so that they can post the same comments, more or less, using different names, thus pretending that there are many of them. This is the technique used before 2008; it earned them the title of Labour Elves, which is still relevant today.
daniel li
Antoine Vella Is this your real name?If it is then you are more stupid then i thought you were.
joseph busuttil
Sur Antoine Vella u Demartino huma pezza wahda. Dejjem mohhom fil passat ta haddiehor imma il hmieg li ghamlu w ghadhom jamlu qiesu mbirek minn ALLA. Ara lill dawn in nies li thobbu semmu qatt ma tghidu li fil milja ta zmien "XTRAJTUHOM" u il lum igawdu l'appogg tal PN Meta jasal il waqt li imwerwnin minnhu nizela aktar!
Ben Agius
@Antoine Vella. Say what you like but what you say gives a strong indication about you. You might well be right or partly right about your views however your language and the way you say it indicates that, while you might not be a thug yourself, your language is thuggish! The challenge in my view, is to try to rise above continous partisan comments and say something that looks like it might be helpful for Malta and the Maltese. that can be done on both sides of the political spectrum and then let the voter decide on argument not the tedious partisan bullshit that most Maltese still engage in.
salgister
@Antoine Vella. I too use a nickname because of Pn vindictiveness. Because I am pro-labour I was given a transfer. And as for your insults, well it becomes you. We all know that you and your party can't get as low as you are now.
Antoine Vella
Timid-as-a-squirrel, quite simply, I don't believe you. A squirrel can say what it wants, it's still the word of a tree-living rodent. The only thing I know about you - and the others posting here - is that you don't have the guts to show your convictions publicly. Suldat tal-azzar ukoll.
thesquirrel
@Antoine Vella I use a nickname because of the "moral" violence you're mentioning. If I say something pro-Labour and use my name I get discriminated against by Nationalists. I am in a senior management position and I can discriminate if I want, but I choose not to. In my work I don't mix political opinion with individual abilities.
Antoine Vella
Most people realise that Labour will very likely win the next elections and will once again discriminate against Nationalists but, of course, it does not weaken our resolve to resist the PL, publicly and openly (no hiding behind nicknames like craven Mintoffjani). This is what we do now and what we'll do in future, even as Muscat and his thugs seek to intimidate us with violence, moral and physical.
Raymond Gatt
GONZIPN's time is up.
thesquirrel
Jidher li n-nies xebaw minn Gonzipn fl-ahhar. Hemm bzonn ta' nies u ideat godda fit-tmexxija.
George Sultana
Haffef isa Gonzipn, halli titla fis-survey...... u erga ibda ibghat ittri ta' weghdi bhal dawk li bghat qabel l-ahhar elezzjoni u li ma zammejtx. U tinsiex tweghhom xoghol garantit, ghejxien ahjar ghal familja taghhom, jaqilghu aktar u jhallsu anqas taxxa. U bil-haqq tinsiex fl-ahhar tal-ittra tfaqqalu dik il-firma, li flok giet issaraf fiducja ta' Prim Ministru saret simbolu tal-qerq u gideb. Darba dhaqt bil-haddiema tat-tarzna, airmalta u ohrajn, imma din id-darba wasal iz-zmien li jidhqu huma.
Paul Attard
The country badly needs a change in government. Hope JM and his PL party manage to convince the greatest number of the electorate that they are a worthwhile alternative and hope that the trust they get will serve to give a new Maltese government a fresher and cleaner political impetus.
joseph busuttil
I do not believe in any surveys. Why? I am not that stupid that I will declare that I am a Labour supporter because I do not know who is going to see my particulars and then God help my children. If I have to estemate this survey I will easly add another 2% in favour to the PL!
Lawrence Fenech
Mhux bilfors la Gonzi harbat il-kaxxa ta' Malta bi progetti li mhux zmienhom, l-ghar wiehed il-parliament, in-nofs teatru u hela fil-BWSC fost ohrajn. U xorta tefa' 500 fil-gimgha mit-2008 fil-but u jiggustifka dan il-htif minn wara dar il-poplu ghax wiccu ma tahx li juri x'kien ser jghamel.
Charles Bayliss
Jghid x'jghid Gonzi jien mhux se nerga' nivvota PN sakemm idum hemm hu. Ilni mill-1981 nivvota PN (l-ewwel elezzjoni li vvutajt fiha). Gonzi qed jeqred il-Partit.
Charles Bayliss
Jghid x'jghid Gonzi jien mhux se nerga' nivvota PN sakemm idum hemm hu. Ilni mill-1981 nivvota PN (l-ewwel elezzjoni li vvutajt fiha). Gonzi qed jeqred il-Partit.
Lawrence Fenech
U Gonzi ikompli iweieghed kif ghamel qabel l-ahhar elezzjoni u ma jghamelix basta itella il-voti.
Joseph Brincat
"in a clear indication that the PN has started to consolidate its position among its core supporters" How, one might one ask? By government incumbency i.e. by dishing out jobs to the blue eyed through recruitment with government authorities?????? The conclusion one might deduce from this survey is; 'good bye snap elections' Gonzi+ will drag on limpidly till the expire of this legislature.
fufa
Jien nghid li lil poplu Malti wahhallu kanna ikbar minn dik li qed jghid lil Joseph Muscat. X'tahsbu?
Mario Attard
€5 billjuni tiddivedihok 400,000 euh jigu €12,500 fuq kull ras. Mela nerga nafda lil Gonzi biex f'hames snin ohra id-dejn fuq kull ras jitla ghal €25,000 u jien ikolli nahdem sa 80 sena b'urina nizla ma saqajja biex ma nighdx affarijiet ohra u nibqa minghajr penzjoni, inhallas biex nidhol Mater Dejn, inhallas kontijiet essorbitanti ghad dawl u indur ghal subaja ghaliex lanqas x'niekol ma jifdali u huwa jerga isir Prim Ministru u din id-darba jiehu flok €500 fil-gimgha jiehu €5000. Hekk sew, finanzi fis-sod ghalih u ghal haddiehor it-tilqit u l-istandard of living tal haddiem Malti dejjem nizel bhal ma nizlu il-finanzi tal-pajjiz
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