‘No’ leads by a point in Labour-leaning south

The ‘no to spring hunting’ campaign is leading by a wide margin in the northern districts and by a single point in the south. On the other hand the ‘yes’ lobby is leading by a wide margin in central Malta and Gozo.

The survey also shows that while the no enjoys a seven-point lead nationally, it only enjoys a two-point lead in those localities where local elections will be held concurrently with the referendum on April 11.  

Turnout is expected to be higher in localities where local elections are being held, as both major parties will be mobilising their voters in these localities.  

Localities where elections are due include pro-hunting strongholds such as Siggiewi, Zebbug, Mgarr, Dingli and Nadur. But elections are also due in localities such as Swieqi, St Julians and Attard, where the No is expected to predominate. 

The stronger showing by the yes camp in localities where local elections are due gives it an advantage over the no camp which enjoys higher support in localities where no local elections will be held.

To ensure an adequate sample for the survey, held last week, Maltese districts were grouped in three: the southern five electoral districts, the three central districts and the northern four districts.  

Although the sample from Gozo is only indicative, this district is being analysed alone as the scale of the yes vote on the sister island could have a bearing on the result if neither side prevails with a wide margin in Malta.

The survey shows the hunting lobby enjoying a strong 10-point lead in the sixth, seventh and eight districts, which include Siggiewi, Luqa, Dingli, Qormi, Zebbug and Mgarr, where local elections are also due, and localities such as Rabat, Birkirkara, Iklin and Lija where no elections are due.

Within these three central districts support for the Yes camp is lowest in the eighth district, which includes Birkirkara, but is considerably higher in the sixth and seventh districts.

Not surprisingly, the survey shows the No to Spring hunting campaign is strongest in the northern PN-leaning 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th districts, where it enjoys a massive 23 point lead over the Yes camp. 

Support for the No camp is strongest in affluent middle class localities like Attard, Swieqi, Sliema, St Julians and Balzan, where an overwhelming majority is opposed to spring hunting. Localities such as Mosta are split. 

Overall in these districts, while an absolute majority of voters (52%) will vote against spring hunting, only 28% will vote to retain spring hunting.

Surprisingly, despite the pro-hunting stance of Labour leader Joseph Muscat, the no campaign is also enjoying a small but significant one-point lead in the Labour-leaning 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th districts.

Support for the No camp is higher in younger localities such as Marsaskala and Fgura. 

The survey shows that the highest number of voters who intend to abstain from the referendum vote (13%) is found in the 6th, 7th and 8th districts, while the highest percentage of don’t knows (33%) live in Gozo. 

Methodology

The survey was held between Monday 23 and Thursday, 26 February. A total of 887 respondents were contacted by telephone. The survey was stopped when a quota of 600 respondents was reached. The survey has a margin of error of +/-4 points.