[ANALYSIS] Joseph Muscat between Zonqor and a hard place

Joseph Muscat has frequently shown he can withdraw in the face of public opposition. So why is he still weighing his choices on Zonqor?

Joseph Muscat addressing the Chamber of Commerce, which is among those opposed to the proposed American University site at Zonqor Point
Joseph Muscat addressing the Chamber of Commerce, which is among those opposed to the proposed American University site at Zonqor Point

Joseph Muscat’s strength has always been his flexibility and readiness to withdraw in the face of popular opposition or outrage. As Opposition leader, he showed no remorse in axing deputy leader Anglu Farrugia after his disastrous Xarabank outing to put forward a more middle-class friendly face – Louis Grech.

His full or partial U-turns included tweaking the Individual Investor Programme to introduce a residency requirement, going back on postponing the 2015 local elections to 2019, and then firing close ally Manuel Mallia after three long weeks of public criticism.

And through the use of symbolic, if highly effective, gestures, Muscat knows how to reach out to critics. After helping the hunting lobby win the spring hunting referendum, he stopped the hunting season three days before its closure after a protected bird was shot down in a school.

But Muscat is still biding his time on the private university he wants built at Zonqor Point, despite mounting opposition from even business organisations like the Chamber of Commerce, Labour deputy mayor Desiree Attard, and rebel MP Marlene Pullicino and government whip Godfrey Farrugia.

Green-washing Zonqor

He tried his best at green-washing the ‘American University’ by twinning it to a natural park in the vicinity, but the tactic backfired after it emerged that Muscat was effectively reducing the size of the natural park already approved in the 2006 local plan.

And a sizeable piece of land next to the proposed campus was not included in the proposed natural park, raising the suspicion that it was left out to leave room for its future expansion.

Muscat’s second trick was to use divide-and-rule tactics by trying to meet NGOs individually, and his constant reference to divisions in the NGO camp on alternative sites proposals. But this tactic has largely backfired as the list of organisations opposed to the project grows.

Muscat’s then tried to silence critics like Archbishop Charles Scicluna by unearthing the pending applications for a school in an ODZ area in Ghaxaq. But unlike the site in Zonqor, the site at Ghaxaq was already identified in the local plan as a place to relocate the already existing St Albert’s School, which is severely handicapped by its present location in Valletta.

And indeed, the local plan only permits the relocation of existing schools along the border of the ODZ boundary, and does not foresee development in secluded locations deep within the countryside.

Muscat’s final trick was to throw the ball to the public by seeking online ‘consultation’ on alternative sites without even specifying the amount of land required or whether the land should be within development zones or not: this contrasted with the conditions the OPM must have handed down to the office of MEPA chief executive officer Johann Buttigieg, limiting it 90,000 square metres in the south of the island.

The risk of withdrawal

Muscat may well have not taken a final decision and he could still be toying with a compromise, perhaps splitting the university over two areas, or locating part of it in a historical fort and the rest, including the sports facilities, in Zonqor or another ODZ site.

But developers Sadeen, of Jordan, insist they want an undivided campus – perhaps a tactic to give the impression that by securing a split campus the government would have won a major concession.

This may not be enough to break opposition to the project, which is unlikely to waver if the Zonqor site is not scrapped. And if Zonqor is scrapped, environmentalists are likely to oppose any ODZ development on land not already developed.

Unlike in previous U-turns, Muscat’s decision in this case has a clear bearing on a private multi-million development and impacts directly on his vision of transforming Malta into a Dubai or Singapore.

But it is also possible that this time round Muscat is not in a mood for compromise. He may have underestimated the strength of environmentalists, but his calculation could be that he stands more to gain if he sends a message to the construction industry that he is back in business and that ODZ sites are not off-limits.

If ODZ development is excluded in this case, it will boost the morale of environmentalists resisting any development on ODZs.

Busuttil’s firm stance

Muscat may also be testing the opposition. Simon Busuttil’s determined stance against development in Zonqor may win him points with environmentalists, but by opposing ODZ development he may well have sent a shiver down the spines of developers who before 2008 actively backed the PN but started to desert it after the MEPA reform.  

Busuttil may be expecting Muscat to bow to widespread opposition and scrap the Zonqor option, perhaps to even take credit for making Muscat change his mind.

In his bid to reach out to environmentalists, Busuttil still faces the ghosts of the past like the 2006 extension of building boundaries which can only exorcised by a clear commitment not to repeat the same mistakes.

Labour is fully exploiting this past record, which is why a staged parliamentary question by Silvio Parnis revealed that 12,600 permits were issued in ODZ areas in the past 20 years – permits which include both harmful developments like ODZ houses, hotels and supermarkets and necessary works like rubble walls, cesspits and agricultural works.

But while the PN is duty bound to take a clear stance on a national issue especially in parliament, any attempt to monopolise the issue risks undermining the national consensus against the ODZ development proposed at Zonqor.

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