United Kingdom future in doubt after fresh Scotland polls

The future of Scotland and the United Kingdom remains uncertain, as fresh polls show the two rival campaigns running neck and neck five days before a historic Scottish referendum on independence. Out of four new polls, three showed that those in favour of maintaining the union were in the lead by 2-8%. However, a separate poll showed supports of Scottish independence in the lead by 8%.

Thousands of people have taken to the streets of Edinburgh and Glasgow as rival leaders worked to convince undecided votes in what is the final weekend of campaigning before Thursday’s vote.

Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond, who has spearheaded the pro-independence campaign said he was confident that the ‘Yes’ campaign would win.

“We’re not aiming to win by one vote. We’re aiming to achieve a substantial majority,” Salmond said in a BBC interview. “One of the great assets of our campaign is that we don’t regard any section or sector of Scottish society or any geography of Scotland as beyond our reach.”

Alistair Darling, a former British Finance Minister and chair of the pro-union ‘Better Together’ campaign warned that there would be ‘no way back’ if Scotland were to vote for independence.

Darling said that promises from British political leaders of greater powers for Scotland mean that a ‘No’ vote could give Scots the best of both worlds.

Darling told the Sunday Times that the consequences of a Scottish vote for independence could match the turbulence of the 2008 financial crisis. Investors pulled out $27 billion of British financial assets last month, the biggest capital outflow since the Lehman Brothers crisis in 2008 - consultancy CrossBorder Capital said.

Last week, Scottish-based banks, including the Royal Bank of Scotland, said that they had formed plans to relocate in the case of an independence vote, retail companies said that independence could spell prise rises in Scotland, and Germany’s Deutsche Bank warned of economic meltdown.

However, Salmond has dismissed these warnings as a London campaign of bullying and scare mongering. 

The biggest financial question concerns the currency of a potential independent Scotland. Salmond wants to keep the pound in a currency union with the UK, similar to the eurozone. British Prime Minister David Cameron has ruled this option out.

More than four million Scots are eligible to vote. The question on the ballot sheet will simply ask: ‘Should Scotland become an independent country?’

Independence supporters say that Scotland should be free to rule itself and choose its own leaders, rather than remain under the control of politicians in Westminster who they say ignore their needs.

Pro-union supporters say that Scotland is more secure and prosperous as part of the UK.