Germany expecting up to 300,000 refugees this year, official says

Head of Germany’s Federal Office for Migration and Refugees says office would struggle if more refugees were to arrive in Germany; poll shows 50% of respondents are against Angela Merkel serving fourth term as Chancellor

Germany expects up to 300,000 refugees to arrive in the country this year, less than one-third of the total during 2015’s record influx, the head of its Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) has said.

BAMF chief, Frank-Jurgen Weise, told the Bild am Sonntag newspaper that his office would struggle if more people arrived, but he said he was confident the number of new arrivals would remain within the estimate.

Weise said Germany’s healthy economy and improvements to refugee services over the last year meant the country was well placed to absorb new arrivals, particularly as their numbers have dropped off.

“We are preparing for between 250,000 and 300,000 refugees this year.”

“We can ensure optimal services for up to 300,000. Should more people arrive, it would put us under pressure, then we would go into so-called crisis mode. But even then we would not have conditions like last year,” he said.

Nearly 1.1 million refugees arrived in Germany last year, putting enormous strain on the country’s bureaucracy to process claims and testing confidence in Angela Merkel’s right-left coalition government.

The closure of the so-called Balkan migrant trail and a EU deal with Turkey to keep refugees from reaching Greece – a main entry point into the bloc – has driven down arrivals from the Middle East and Afghanistan.

The German interior ministry says more than 390,000 people applied for asylum in the first six months of this year, but it is not clear how many of these may have arrived in the country in 2015.

Weise said his agency had made major strides in working through a large backlog in asylum claims but that it would not manage to clear the remaining 530,000 cases by the end of the year. He said integrating those allowed to stay in Germany into the labour market “would take a long time and cost a lot.”

Public sentiment is nevertheless sharply divided when it comes to Merkel, who has not yet said whether she would stand for a fourth term in a general election expected next September or October.

A poll showed on Sunday that 50% of Germans are against her serving a fourth term in office.

A series of violent attacks on civilians in July, two of which were claimed by Islamic State, have focused attention on Merkel's open-door migrant policy, which allowed hundreds of thousands of migrants from the Middle East, Africa and elsewhere into Germany last year.

Half of the 501 people questioned in the Emnid poll for the Bild am Sonntag newspaper were against Merkel staying in office beyond after the 2017 election, with 42 percent wanting her to remain.