Greece: Debt crisis threatens break with EU

Greek farmers, many on tractors, have once again been blockading roads and border posts amid mounting signs that the country long at the centre of Europe’s debt woes is – once again – teetering towards crisis.

Protesting farmers have been a regular feature of the social unrest that has sporadically gripped Greece. It is now more than seven years since the Greek financial crisis erupted and the debt drama has often had a deja vu quality about it.

Eclipsed last year by the UK’s vote to exit the EU, and Donald Trump’s US electoral victory, the nation’s epic struggle to keep bankruptcy at bay has been out of the spotlight.

But away from the headlines, a perfect storm is brewing.

Bailout negotiations between Athens and its creditors have stalled. The possibility of Grexit, or euro exit, has re-emerged and bond yields have soared. The yield on two-year Greek government bonds has risen from 6% to 10% in less than two weeks as spooked investors have dumped their holdings. And the shrill rhetoric last seen at the height of the crisis in 2015 has returned.

Analysts sensing dangerous deadlock are sounding the alarm.

“I am very worried we are heading towards a rupture with the EU,” said Pantelis Kapsis, a prominent political commentator. “There are lots of signs that at the back of their minds people in Syriza [the ruling leftist party] are entertaining various ideas of going it alone. What is sure is that we are entering a very difficult period which quite possibly could lead us to a point of no return.”

As always, time is of the essence. Shored up by a third EU-led bailout, Athens was told this week that further rescue funds would not be forthcoming until it concluded a compliance review of terms attached to the €86bn (£74bn) aid package. In July Greece faces debt repayments of €7.4bn, raising the spectre of default because state coffers by then will have run dry.

The impasse has turned into a standoff as creditors demand additional austerity once the current bailout expires. Without further reduction of pensions – already cut 12 times since the crisis began – and the tax-free threshold of personal incomes, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) argues, the debt-stricken country will never be able to achieve its agreed fiscal goal of a primary surplus of 3.5% of GDP from 2018.

In a fiery parliamentary debate late on Wednesday, Tsipras dug in, insisting his two-party coalition – in power with a wafer-thin majority of two – would not cave in to demands that his government has repeatedly called absurd. “The IMF’s demands go beyond any democratic and constitutional logic and value,” he railed.

If the deadline is missed few believe Athens will be able to keep itself afloat without a fourth bailout once the latest loans end.

And in a Europe preoccupied with other matters – and in fear of an anti-establishment ascendant far right – the prospect of that happening is slim.

“What we are witnessing is a disaster for the real economy because everything is on hold,” said Costas Panagopoulos who heads the Alco polling institute. “Once again we are talking about economic catastrophe, once again we are talking about Grexit,” he told the Guardian. “The next few weeks are critical. If an agreement isn’t reached, if there is more uncertainty, we don’t know how Greeks will react.”

Complicating matters further is the direction the IMF will take now that President Trump is in power. In his former role as a billionaire businessman, Trump tweeted that the Greeks were “wasting time” in the eurozone.

Last week, the IMF delivered its gloomiest assessment yet of Greece’s debt burden, arguing that it was not only unsustainable but eventually likely to become “explosive”. The IMF’s board will formally discuss the issue on 6 February but has already hinted that without a commitment of debt relief from the EU it will be unable to contribute further loans. Germany, the biggest contributor to the nearly €300bn of emergency funds assigned to Greece, insists further aid depends exclusively on IMF participation.