Labour leading PN by 14 points

MaltaToday electoral survey reveals that Labour now enjoys a 14-point lead over the Nationalist Party.

james
James Debono
12 March 2012, 12:00am
Labour enjoys 14 points lead over PN
Labour enjoys 14 points lead over PN


All three political parties have registered an increase in their national support in a survey carried out a few days before Saturday's local elections.

At 24% the PN has seen its support increase by nearly three points since last month, while Labour has seen its support increase by four points since last month. This translates in to a 14-point lead for the Labour Party.

In this survey, the PL registers its highest ever percentage score in a MaltaToday survey.

For the first time since 2009, Alternattiva Demokratika has surpassed the two-per cent mark, which is well above its 1.3% result in the 2008 general election. This could be a reflection of greater visibility for the party before local elections. 

The increase in support for all three parties comes in the wake of a decrease in undecided respondents and those who would not be voting.

The PL not only enjoys a 14-percentage lead on the PN but also is benefiting from a significant 11-point swing from the Nationalist Party (up from nine points last month).

This clearly shows that the reconfirmation of Gonzi as party leader has not stopped the haemorrhage of voters from the PN's 2008 vote base.

Respondents were asked to state their present voting intention and for which party they had voted for in the 2008 election.

Significantly while 12% of Nationalist voters in 2008 (up from 11 % in the last survey) now intend to vote for the PL, only one per cent of Labour voters in 2008 intend to vote for the PN now. There was no change in the number of Labour voters intending to vote PN since the last survey.

This is an indication that recent political events have slightly increased the haemorrhage of voters from the PN to the PL. Apart from the 11% it loses to the PL, the PN also loses two per cent of its 2008 voters to AD, up from one per cent last month.

But while the party is losing more votes to the other two parties, overall the party manages to retain more of its 2008 votes than last month, thanks to a drop in former PN voters who are inclined not to vote in the next election. 

The number of PN voters who will not vote if an election is held now, has decreased from 11% in January to six per cent this month.

On the other hand Labour manages to hold on to 84% of its 2008 voters while attracting a significant amount of former Nationalist voters.

Methodology

The survey was held between Monday 5 and Thursday 8 March. A total of 1,117 respondents were randomly chosen from telephone directories.  The survey was stopped when a 500 quota of completed questionnaires was reached. The results of the survey were weighed to reflect the age balance of the population as established in the 2010 demographic review issued by the National Office of Statistics. The survey has a margin of error of /-4.4%.

james
James Debono is MaltaToday's chief reporter on environment, planning and land use issues, ...