MaltaToday polls were spot-on: election confirms 12-point gap

Consistently, MaltaToday polls foretold the 12-point gap that Labour held all throughout the election campaign.

James Debono
10 March 2013, 12:00am
Photo: James Galea/Mediatoday
Photo: James Galea/Mediatoday

The 12-point advantage Labour enjoys in its national vote over the PN has tallied with the 11.7 point difference predicted in the latest MaltaToday survey.

It is the largest gap ever between the big parties since the 1955 election.

Labour had enjoyed a gap of more than 10 points in all eight MaltaToday surveys conducted during the electoral campaign, as well as in most surveys conducted in the previous year.

The election result confirms that Labour has managed to attract a significant amount of Nationalist voters.

MaltaToday surveys showed the PN losing 9.5% of its 2008 voters to the PL. The scale of Labour's victory suggests that the PL has managed to retain this considerable swing right up to polling day.

MaltaToday was the only media outlet to publish surveys during the election campaign, with the last survey published by the Sunday Times in January showing a 6-point advantage for the PN.

Both surveys published on 12 January agreed on the PN's percentage (27%). But while the Times-Misco survey fixed Labour's support at 33%, MaltaToday's survey put the same percentage at 38% - a difference of 5 points. The difference was attributable to the lower participation of Labour voters in the Sunday Times survey.

MaltaToday conducted a total of eight surveys during the campaign. In these surveys the PL enjoyed a gap of between 10 and 14 points.

Support for AD ranged between 1.5% and 2.5%, which roughly tallies with the 1.8% garnered in the general election.

This also shows that undecided voters and non-respondents followed the same trends as declared voters.

MaltaToday had previously correctly predicted the results of the 2008 general election, the MEP election in 2009 and the divorce referendum. A survey conducted in Gozo in August 2012 showed Labour leading by 3.5 percentage points.
James Debono is MaltaToday's chief reporter on environment, planning and land use issues, ...