MaltaToday Survey | Labour 5 points ahead as ‘no replies’ increase

22% of respondents are either undecided or refuse to reveal their voting intentions up from 19% last week

james
James Debono
1 June 2017, 7:47am
The difference between the two parties increased from 3.3 points in the first week to 4.9 in the last days.
The difference between the two parties increased from 3.3 points in the first week to 4.9 in the last days.
An extrapolation of the survey after removing undecided voters and non-voters would give Labour 52.7%, the PN 46.3%, leaving other parties at 1%. This means that if undecided voters go to both parties in equal proportion the gap would grow to 6.4 points.  But the latest survey shows 21.9% (up from 19.1% last week) who are either undecided or refused to reply to this question. 

Significantly while those who claim to be undecided have decreased from 15% to 12%, those who did not reply have increased from 4.4% to 9.9%.

This could be an indication that respondents became more reluctant to declare their voting intentions, a few days before the election. In fact, the percentage of respondents who accepted to participate in the survey but refused to answer the question on voting intentions is the highest in all surveys conducted during the campaign. 

The fact that the PL slightly widened its lead amidst an increase in no replies could be an indication that this category is more PN-leaning. As things stand, the election’s outcome will be determined by undecided respondents as their numbers could sway the election either way.

Changes in surveys conducted during the electoral campaign  have been minimal, oscillating between a 3.3 point gap in the first week of the campaign to 4.9 points now.  

The difference between the two parties increased from 3.3 points in the first week of the campaign to 3.9 points in the second week only to drop to 3.6 points in the third week. A week before the election it had increased to 4.2 points and increased again to 4.9 points in the last days. But these oscillations have to be seen in view of the margin of error of each survey.

The survey still shows the Greens below the 1-point mark at 0.5%. It also shows the patriots at 0.3%. The overall percentage of respondents who would vote for PD candidates on the PN list stands at 0.9%. But the percentage of small parties could also be heavily impacted by the margin of error. The same applies to political parties who were not mentioned by respondents in this survey.

Read the full survey in the MaltaToday Digital Edition.

james
James Debono is MaltaToday's chief reporter on environment, planning and land use issues, ...