Market commentary: ECB governing council to convene in Malta

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will convene his Governing Council in Malta this week to set monetary policy for a 19-nation region that is seeing its recovery held back by slowing international trade and global market volatility. 

It seems inevitable that officials will have to announce further stimulus measures in order to reach the objectives laid out by the ECB prior to the launch of the Quantitative Easing program, as growth remains sluggish and inflation subdued.

While ECB speakers have publicly proclaimed that it’s too early to tell whether an emerging-market downturn and commodity-price slump will derail the euro areas already- sluggish revival, the pressures are mounting.

The euro tumbled last week on a comment by Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny  when he said even core inflation, which eliminates the effect of lower energy prices, is “clearly” below target.

The 25-member Governing Council will gather here in Malta starting Wednesday, in one of two meetings it holds each year outside its headquarters in Frankfurt. Its interest-rate decision will be announced at 1:45 p.m. the next day and Draghi will hold a press conference in Valletta 45 minutes later.

The general opinion of the market according to a survey conducted by Bloomberg appears to say that the ECB will probably hold off from announcing more quantitative easing immediately; 81 percent of the 53 respondents predict it will do so eventually, compared with 68 percent in a similar poll last month. Of those who expect an expansion in the stimulus plan, 56 percent said it’ll happen this year and 30 percent said the decision will be taken next quarter.

Out of the economists that see QE being altered, 81 percent said the ECB will extend the duration of the program past the initial end-date of September 2016, and 42 percent said officials will increase the size of monthly purchases from 60 billion euros. Just over a quarter said the central bank will expand the range of assets it buys beyond the current list of public-sector debt, covered bonds and asset- backed securities.

The ECB has bought almost half a trillion euros of debt under QE, as well as keeping official rates near zero and providing 400 billion euros in cheap long-term loans to banks. Yet inflation was minus 0.1 percent in September, the first negative reading since QE started in March, compared with a medium-term goal of just under 2 percent. The core rate, which excludes food and energy, was 0.9 percent.

The current relay of economic data is raising the pressure on Draghi to act on his longstanding pledge that the central bank will add stimulus if needed.

The ECB predicted last month that the euro area’s economic expansion will keep accelerating, from 1.4 percent this year to 1.7 percent in 2016 and 1.8 percent in 2017. The central bank also saw inflation getting close to its goal near the end of 2017. Since then, measures of economic activity have worsened and new forecasts to be published after the Dec. 3 meeting may be the hook for policy makers to announce more QE.

Should the ECB come forward with further stimulus measures, expect this to translate into a positive reaction from both the bond and equity markets, and negative impact on the euro.

This article was issued by Simon Psaila, Treasury Officer at Calamatta Cuschieri. For more information visit, www.cc.com.mt. The information, view and opinions provided in this article is being provided solely for educational and informational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice, advice concerning particular investments or investment decisions, or tax or legal advice. Calamatta Cuschieri & Co. Ltd has not verified and consequently neither warrants the accuracy nor the veracity of any information, views or opinions appearing on this website.