Many cardinals but only one pope. Will it be Gozitan Mario Grech?

Trying to determine who the new pope will be is an exercise that hovers between the realms of informed speculation and wishful guesswork.

There are no polls gauging the voting preferences of the 133 cardinals who will be making the decision. This is not an election where candidates vying for the top post put forward their name—cardinals can technically choose any baptised, unmarried man to become pope. And the increased global diversity introduced by Pope Francis in the college of cardinals over his 12-year papacy makes the choice even harder to predict.

The lists put forward by different news organisations have thrown up a variety of names—too many to draw up a shortlist of the most likely. The only constant has been the pigeonholing of the papabili into two broad camps—the continuity candidates likely to persist in the socially-oriented and humanistic approach adopted by Pope Francis; and the more dogmatic types, who advocate for a return to the traditionalist approach. But even within these two broad camps, there are variations—from the hardcore candidates to those considered bridge-builders between the opposing camps.

A look at the numbers would suggest that with 80% of electoral cardinals having been appointed by Francis, the natural choice would be a continuity candidate. But the story gets more complicated for the simple reason that Francis opted for a more diverse geographical spread of cardinals that diluted the European influence. He also abolished the regular meetings between cardinals, which means many do not know each other intimately enough to have built enduring alliances.

It is within this complex and secretive context that the big question lingering on the minds of many Maltese Catholics—whether Cardinal Mario Grech has a chance of becoming pope—has to be answered.

Grech’s name has cropped up in a few of the lists drawn up by international news organisations over the past weeks, raising hope that the next pope could Maltese. The truth is that none of these journalists have any more insight into the matter than any other person who cares to scribble something on social media.

The truth is that Grech has the same chance as any other cardinal in the conclave to emerge from the gathering as pope.

For the past five years, Grech has been heading the Vatican synod office. As secretary general, Grech has listened, reached out, consulted and did not shy away from dealing with sensitive topics such as divorced and remarried Catholics, the pastoral treatment LGBTIQ persons and women priests.

Grech’s work in Rome has pretty much reflected his own conversion, which Maltese theologian Fr Rene Camilleri once likened to St Paul’s fall off his horse on the road to Damascus.

I recall interviewing Grech in 2014 and asking him about his transformation from the firebrand taking on pro-divorce campaigners head-on just three years earlier when Malta was voting in a referendum to legalise divorce, to a more compassionate person speaking on the need to accompany catholic divorcees and LGBTIQ persons.

It was the longest pause in the hour-long interview. He then replied with a smile: “I will leave that answer to you.” Another moment of quiet reflection ensued and Grech added: “But like any disciple I also have a duty to deepen my knowledge of God and man and this appreciation is acquired over time not through ordination.”

It was his way of acknowledging his own transformation, having been influenced by Pope Francis’s description of the church as a field hospital that had to be present on the ground to treat the wounded before it could even start to moralise and preach.

My relationship with Grech started off with a stormy exchange in 2011 when I reported a homily of his in Gozo. He had warned of wolves in sheep’s clothing when referencing a group of catholics that was campaigning for the introduction of divorce. It was at the height of the referendum campaign and I can recall an angry bishop calling me and accusing me of twisting his words—I had not but I did emphasise his reference to wolves and sheep.

He later called back to apologise but it was only a year later that the ice between us was broken when I sought his comments after returning from the synod in the Vatican where he was representing the Maltese episcopal conference.

Grech’s tone had changed and while at first, he was sceptical of trusting me with publishing the interview without first passing it by him, I convinced him otherwise. “You are a man of faith; have some faith and trust me,” I told him. He did and the ice was broken. After that we occasionally exchanged messages.

The last time I received a message from him was in August last year, offering me condolences on the passing of a relative.

There is something remarkable in Grech’s evolution as a man of faith and I do not say this solely on the basis of personal experience. People who form part of the LGBTIQ community in Malta also witnessed the making of a more caring person who was willing to sit down, listen, understand and embrace. And Grech took his transformation public, delivering homilies that were self-critical of traditionalist behaviours within the church.

His parting words in the 2014 interview characterised the personal journey he had embarked on and which took on significantly more meaning in later years when he was appointed cardinal and secretary general of the synod by Francis.

“We have been trusted to preach God’s word and not turn it into a rock with which to stone others,” he had told me.

Some would argue Grech’s conversion was one of convenience in line with the prevailing papacy. I tend to disagree because it was a very public process followed up by meaningful deeds, for those who bothered to look.

It is this personal transformation, which I believe puts him in an ideal position to earn the informal title of papabile. Whether this is just informed speculation or wishful guesswork is up to you to judge.