Where have the cold and rain gone?

The urgency of facing up to climate change will surely have been impressed on the general public since leaders claimed history was made at inking a deal at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris. The sceptics shrugged at the triumphalism of clinching agreement to keep the planet’s surface temperature from rising more than 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels: the non-binding deal could breed the complacency that makes disaster inevitable.

Forget the bad news and look out the window. This is some fantastic weather to be having in January. Gorgeous sun out in the mornings, cosy warm afternoons. Is this what the onset of climate change could be? Does it become normal to try and remember whether Christmas ‘should be’ a cold affair, or wheher it was always this pleasant in January, the month whose freezing climes make it the most fearful month in one such Maltese idiom (to fear something as much the January cold)?

But it’s this effort at remembering what the weather should feel like – in winter – that makes this kind of ‘climate change anxiety’ become all the more palpable. Even in 2014, the GRTU registered a complaint with the weather: the sun was harming the sale of winter clothes during Christmas.

Out in Manikata, where fields carpet the entire valley from Xemxija up to Ghajn Tuffieha, Koperattiva Rurali Manikata’s Mario Cardona says he has witnessed various changes in the 20 years he has worked with the cooperative.

Manikata farmers have reported a trend over recent years for citrus trees such as tangerines to bloom as late as December as opposed to their usual October and early November deadline

“One of the most recent observations was that I saw a Mediterranean Wild Thyme plant (Saghtar) flowering some weeks ago,” he said, adding that it was customary for the plant to flower closer to warmer months, namely in May. His other colleagues in the co-op say they have noticed a trend over recent years for citrus trees such as tangerines to bloom as late as December, as opposed to their usual October and early November deadline.

“It’s this untimely blooming that often results in excessive stress for the trees, given that the weather often cools suddenly, which means the fruit is unable to form properly,” Cardona says. “These trees also tend to go through periods of rest once the temperature cools down a bit, to relieve some of the stress and ultimately prepare for the spring. Although the reasons for these delays and changes in life cycles may not be so clear cut, it is undeniable that the extensive sunny periods and relative dryness of this past month may have had an effect.”

Mario Cardona

But a check with the Meteorological Office’s records suggests the jury is still out on this one: this December’s 14.6ºC has been within the norm. “It is normal for December that the Maltese Islands have a maximum temperature varying between 16 to 17.5 degrees,” MIA’s met office said, adding that the maximum average for the month had reached 17.7 degrees.

Independent weather forecasters FirstMalta say that the warm weather comes from an anticyclone which has been stagnant over the central Mediterranean for the last nine weeks. The temperatures won’t break any records for December, which in 1987 graced the island with 24.9ºC weather.

But met office data also reveals that there was significantly less rainfall over previous years, with rainfall reaching an average of 105mm in December. 

Cardona explains that this particular aridity is itself having negative effects on non-irrigated crops, while irrigated crops will require extensive amounts of water from the national water table rather than being able to rely on rainfall. “When it does rain, it’s pouring a lot in relatively short periods, which often means the top layers of dry soil gets dredged away.”

Joe Sciberras, an organic farmer, has also witnessed how the changes in the weather had led to gradual but evident changes in agricultural practices, with vegetables like marrows growing practically all year long. “Farmers are already planting their melons and watermelons,” he says, adding that the warm weather had provided some farmers with an excellent harvest of strawberries, although they are typically harvested in spring.

Harvests from non-indigenous olive trees have three differently sized fruits during harvesting season. This is evidence of the fact that the olive is finding the optimum temperatures to develop its fruits more than once a year. But this inevitably causes unnecessary stress to the tree, which is locally traditionally harvested in May.

“The change can also be seen in olive trees, with harvests from non-indigenous trees yielding three differently sized fruits during the harvesting season.

“This is evidence of the fact that the olive is finding the optimum temperatures to develop its fruits more than once a year,” Sciberras says, while cautioning that this inevitably causes unnecessary stress to the tree, it is locally traditionally harvested in May.

But Sciberras insists that this phenomenon is not evident in indigenous trees, which would have grown accustomed to the local temperatures. “A further change which has affected olives, but this time not so negatively, is the absence of the olive fruit fly,” he says of the considerably troublesome pest which affects the quality and quantity of fruit produced, typically thriving in cool and humid environments. According to Sciberras, the short winter periods ultimately mean that the insect is active for ever briefer periods.

“Alternately however, the Mediterranean fruit fly is thriving, given the fact that it is healthiest when the warmth persists,” he says. “And whereas before insects were typically most active towards the end of June, the prolonged heat means that they might even survive the winter months.”

And although new, atypical insects have been noticed in recent years, Sciberras says they aren’t cause for alarm. “The problem rises when these alien species find optimum environments and begin to spread unchecked due to the absence of natural enemies,” he says referring to the red palm weevil, which has killed over 4,500 palm trees since it appeared in Malta in 2007, and the Asian tiger mosquito, which has the ability of transmitting pathogens like yellow fever and dengue fever among others.

Under the sea

The same situation seems to be happening in the seas surrounding Malta, according to marine biologist and researcher Alan Deidun, who explains that rising temperatures were causing the Mediterranean to become a tropical sea resembling the Indian and Pacific oceans, rather than a sub-tropical sea.

“As a result, species which normally preferred warmer seas, were finding the right conditions to survive in the Mediterranean, while others that preferred cooler waters are having to resort to deeper waters.”

Deidun says alien species always used to find their ways into the Mediterranean through routes 

like the Suez Canal for instance, but that up until a few years ago these creatures could not survive the cooler temperatures of the Mediterranean.

“The issue is that some of these species can be very invasive, and there are cases where they are having negative economic impacts,” he says, making particular reference to the Nomadic jellyfish, spotted in Maltese waters in August. 

The particular species has been known to clog power station pipes and fishing nets towards Israel, Lebanon and Turkey, where it is present in large quantities. 

Earlier this year, another alien species, the toxic silver cheeked toadfish, was also spotted, sparking concerns about the fast spreading fish and whether they could pose health risks to humans, not to mention populations of other fish. 

“Other fish spotted in Maltese waters in recent years include a specific kind of algae that negatively impacts the ecologically important Posidonia meadows, and the lionfish, a species that has established itself more in the Western Mediterranean,” Deidun says, adding that the latter particular species could eat many other species, besides being venomous itself. 

He cautions that the fact that temperatures were getting warmer could potentially mean that parasites and pathogens spread more quickly due to a phenomenon known as ‘over-wintering’.

“The cold winter months used to be enough to prevent certain pathogens from surviving, but given the rise in temperatures, some of these creatures are surviving both on land and in the water,” he said. 

He also says that the lack of rainfall is also having drastic effects on amphibians and the already limited creatures that rely on fresh water. “This year, the Bahrija watercourse is still dry and creatures like the Fresh Water Crab and the Mediterranean painted frog are still absent,” he says, noting that November and December were typically among the rainiest months on the island, and therefore essential to these species.

Deidun explained that although statistics might suggest normality in Malta, the world was going through extremes, as can be seen in the violent El Nino weather phenomenon currently battering various parts of the world. He added that these extremes could only be expected to worsen over time. 

Migratory birds and breeding patterns

The changes in the agricultural sector are also having a domino effect on certain migratory birds, according to BirdLife Malta conservation manager Nicholas Barbara. 

“Although no specific studies have been carried out into the effects of climate change on individual species, observations show that the migration patterns of small birds like robins and warblers have changed significantly, with the birds arriving in Malta earlier in spring and later in autumn than before.”

Barbara says that for such small birds, Malta was merely a stop-off in their long journeys across seas, stopping here to re-fuel as it were. “The problem is that given the fact that they are arriving here too early, the necessary foods would not have matured sufficiently yet,” he says, adding that the long-term effects of this were naturally of some concern. 

“Farming practises and delays due to warmer temperatures are also affecting birds like the turtle doves, for instance.” The species relies heavily on seeds.

And now with the rise in temperature, some birds are actually changing their routes completely. “For some migratory birds it has become enough to stop in Southern Europe, rather than continue to North Africa in order to find sufficiently warm temperatures.”

Back into the urban areas and away from Malta’s shrinking countryside, one rainy day in the week is a reminder that this should be the season for wet, desolate days. But the warm sun is out the next day to disappoint. The New York Times has also ranked Malta third out of 52 cities that must be visited in 2016. Its warm and sunny winters continues to be a major draw, climate change anxiety or not.