Heat-related deaths in Malta could triple by 2095 without climate action, study warns

A stark warning has been issued for Malta, as a new study published in the prestigious Nature magazine predicts that heat-related deaths on the island could triple by the end of the century if global warming is not tackled.

The study finds that under a worst-case scenario of a 4°C temperature rise, Malta could see heat-related deaths soar to 269 per 100,000 people by 2095. In the summer of 2023, Malta recorded 80 excess deaths due to intense heatwarves and lengthy power outages.

The report identifies Malta as the "most affected country" in Europe, with heat-related mortality rates more than double the average for Southern Europe. Even under more moderate temperature increases of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C, Malta is the only European country projected to experience a rise in heat-related deaths across all scenarios. In all cases, Malta’s heat-related mortality rates far exceed those of other European nations and the continental average.

The study, conducted by researchers from across Europe, highlights the disproportionate impact of rising temperatures on Mediterranean countries. Alongside Malta, Eastern Spain, Southern France, and Italy are singled out as particularly vulnerable regions. Other European "hotspots" for increasing temperatures include Romania, Bulgaria, Austria, Southern Germany, and Southern Poland.

The report says most European cities will face a growing burden of temperature-related mortality unless significant action is taken. While cold-related deaths have traditionally outnumbered heat-related fatalities in Europe, the study raises concerns about whether reductions in cold-related deaths will be enough to offset the projected surge in heat-related mortality