MaltaToday Survey: Abela rides the wave as Grech slumps to worst ever trust rating

Robert Abela’s trust rating stands at 51.3%, a MaltaToday survey shows as he continues to ride the wave that propelled the Labour Party to election victory.

The Prime Minister enjoys a 28-point lead over Opposition leader Bernard Grech, whose trust rating slumps to 23.6%, his worst performance since September 2020.

The survey also shows that 21.5% of voters trust none of the two leaders.

The last trust barometer published six days before the March general election saw Abela enjoy a rating of 43.8% and Grech a rating of 30.6%. Abela went on to successfully lead the Labour Party to a landslide victory amid a higher abstention rate.

The survey was carried out between 16 and 25 May before the Nationalist Party’s leadership election that saw Grech being reconfirmed leader by 81% of councillors in a one-horse race.

The findings show that Abela enjoys the upper hand on Grech among men and women, all age groups and across all regions bar one.

Abela enjoys the trust of 97% of those who voted for the PL in the March election as opposed to Grech, who enjoys the trust of 65.1% of those who voted for the PN.

Nationalist voters remain inconsistent with 26.1% saying they trust none of the two leaders, while 3.9% trust Abela and 4.8% did not reply.

Among young voters aged between 16 and 35, Abela enjoys the trust of 46.3%, while Grech’s rating stands at 22%. Abela’s best performance is among those aged between 36 and 50 where he scores a trust rating of 55.5%. On the flipside, Grech experiences his worst result in this age cohort, mustering only 13.8%.

On a geographical basis, Abela enjoys outstanding support in the Western and Southern Harbour regions, scoring 66.3% and 62.8% respectively.

In the South-Eastern region, the Prime Minister scores a trust rating of 54.6% and in Gozo he hits 53.7%.

In the Northern Harbour region, Abela enjoys a relative majority of 44.5%, while in the Northern region he trails Grech by two points.

The Northern region is the only one where Grech emerges ahead of his rival. The PN leader scores 38.7% against Abela’s 36.9%.

Otherwise, Grech posts dismal showings in the Western region (a mere 3.6%) and Gozo (8.3%). These two regions are characterised by a significant number of people who trust none of the two leaders, suggesting a greater level of dissatisfaction among PN voters.

In Gozo, 38% of respondents trust neither Abela nor Grech, while in the Western region 30.1% trust none.

The numbers suggest that Grech’s trust rating is negatively hit by what appears to be widespread disenchantment among PN voters, a trend that may have worsened after the March general election result.

Labour has 15-point lead two months after election victory

The Labour Party enjoys a 15-point lead over the Nationalist Party in the first MaltaToday survey since the March general election.

The PL enjoys the support of 43.9%, while the PN trails at 28.8%. ADPD has the support of 2.8%, while other parties clock in at 0.6%.

The PL trumps the PN among men and women, across all age groups, and in four of the six regions.

The PN posts dismal results in Gozo and the Western region. The survey sees the PN registering 9.8% in Gozo and zero support in the Western region.

These numbers must be interpreted with caution since margins of error are much higher in these subgroups. It is unlikely the PN has no support in the Western region but it could be too low to be picked up by the survey. This region sees the PL enjoy the support of 54.3% but it is also the one with 20.1% who are unsure and 16.9% who will not vote.

In Gozo, 27% say they will not vote, while 51.2% support the PL.

The numbers suggest a collapse for the PN in Gozo and the Western region since the election.

The PN wins in the Northern and Northern Harbour regions where it enjoys the support of 44.9% and 42.4% respectively.

The PL’s best performance is in the Southern Harbour where it hits 58.2%.

Among young voters, the PL scores 39.1% against the PN’s 21.3%. The PL’s best performance is among pensioners where support reaches 49.5%. This category is also the one where the PN posts its best result at 36.4%.

The PL has a retention rate of 91.8% from the 2022 election, while the PN has a retention rate of 81.7%. However, 1.1% of PL voters now say they will vote PN, while there is no shift in the opposite direction. But this movement towards the PN is neutralised by 5.6% of voters who supported the PN last March, who say they will not vote and 11% who are unsure what to do if an election is held tomorrow.

Methodology

The survey was carried out between Monday 16 May 2022 and Wednesday 25 May 2022. 656 respondents opted to complete the survey. Stratified random sampling based on region, age and gender was used to replicate the Maltese demo-graphic. The estimated margin of error is 4.3% for a confidence interval of 95% for the overall results. Demographic and sub-group breakdowns have significantly larger margins of error.