PN in freefall as Labour leads by 39,000 votes

SUMMARY

The Labour Party has increased its lead over the Nationalist Party from 24,000 votes in April to nearly 39,000 now, MaltaToday’s June survey shows. 

The PL now practically enjoys the same vote lead it enjoyed over the PN in the 2022 general election. 

The PL now scores an absolute majority of  53.3%, which is just 1.8 points lower than its election result. The PN is also scoring two points lower than its election performance. 

Compared to the general election, the third-party vote has increased from 3.2% to 7% but remains fragmented between Momentum, ADPD and an assortment of other parties. 

Labour’s 14-point lead over the PN is the result of a mixture of declining PL non-voters, greater losses in the PN to third parties and a lower retention rate by the Opposition. 

The survey suggests that Labour’s strategy of wooing back its traditional voters has now paid off with party losses to abstention dropping to just 6.7% from over 21.6% in September 2024. 

The survey once again confirms the unpopularity of PN Leader Bernard Grech, who now trails Robert Abela by a staggering 31 points, up from 27 points two months ago. 

VOTING INTENTIONS: PL widens gap from 8.8 points in last survey to 13.6 points now

The Labour Party is leading the Nationalist Party by a staggering 13.6 percentage points, which translates into an advantage of 38,802 votes, MaltaToday’s June survey shows. 

The results from MaltaToday’s June survey released today put the PL’s support at 53.3% against the PN’s 39.7%. Momentum scored 3.1% and ADPD 1.6%. The results are based on a projected turnout of 80.3%. 

Compared to the last MaltaToday survey held in April, the PL has gained 1.7 points and the PN has lost 3.1 points. In the same time frame the percentage of non-voters has dropped by 2.8 points.   

As a result, the gap between the two main parties has increased from 24,145 votes in April to 38,802 now.  This suggests that Labour’s lead over the PN is now a mere 672 votes less than in the 2022 general election. 

Labour’s gains can be attributed to a remarkable drop in abstention of Labour voters. The results show that among PL voters in the 2022 general election, the number of non-voters today has consistently decreased from 21.1% in February to 11% in April and to just 6.7% now. Moreover, the PL now retains more of its 2022 votes than the PN. While the PL retains 87.2% of its votes, the PN retains 82.1%. 

The survey also shows that the percentage of non-voters among PN voters decreasing from 19% in April to 10.5% now.  Moreover, a regional breakdown suggests Labour is surging in the two southern regions and winning in all other regions, except Gozo and the North Harbour. This suggests that Robert Abela’s strategy of appealing to the party’s hardcore in the past months has worked.  

The survey also shows Labour scoring an overall absolute majority (53.3%) for the second consecutive time since the European Parliament election in June last year. This is just 1.8 points short of the PL’s 55.1% in the last general election. 

The share of third parties has increased slightly from 5.6% in April to 6.9% now. But the third-party vote remains fragmented between Momentum (3.1%), ADPD (1.6%) and other small parties (2.2%). 

Small shift to PN cancelled by shift to third parties 

Despite Labour’s gains, the survey still shows a very small shift from the PL to the PN. While the PL loses 3.4% of its 2022 voters to the PN, the PN only loses 1.4% of its 2022 voters to the PL.  

But the PN also also loses more of its general election voters to third parties than the PL does. While the PL loses 2.7% of its 2022 voters to third parties, the PN loses 7.1% of its voters to small parties, particularly to Momentum (2.9%).   

Crucially, while the PN retains 82.1% of its 2022 voters, the PL is now retaining 87.2%.  And while the survey suggests re-entrenchment as both parties have increased their retention rate—the PL by 5 points and the PN by 4 points—from April, the survey suggests that the PN now has a greater abstention problem than the PL. In fact, while the PN loses 10.5% of its 2022 voters to abstention the PL loses 6.7%. Moreover, the PN’s greater losses to third parties suggest that the PN’s attempts to galvanise its core voters could be alienating other segments of PN voters. 

PL leads in four out of six districts 

The survey shows solid leads for the PL in the South Harbour and South Eastern regions and for the PN in Gozo and the North Harbour. The PL is also leading in the Western region and the Northern region. 

Labour has increased its lead in its heartlands in the South Harbour, which includes Cottonera. In this region, support for the PL has surged from 37.5% in February to 56.2% in April to a staggering 60% now. The party’s gains in this region reflect a  seven-point drop in non-voters since April and a 14-point drop since February. 

Labour also leads the PN by a staggering 32.7 points in the South Eastern region, where support for the Opposition party drops to an abysmal 18.7%. 

The PL has also established a narrower lead in two traditionally PN leaning regions—the West, where it leads by 9.2 points and the Northern region, where it leads by just 4.6 points. 

The PL’s gains in the Northern region are partly the result of a surge in the third-party vote. Nearly, 11% in this particular region intend to vote for a third party.  

The only two districts defying the trend are the populous and highly urbanised North Harbour, where the PN is now leading by 5.9 points and even more clearly so in Gozo, where the PN is leads by 19.4 points. 

The highest percentage of non-voters (26.6%) is found in the Northern and the South Eastern regions 

PL leads by 16 points among 36 to 50 year olds 

The survey shows Labour leading in all age groups but the gap between the parties is greatest among 36 to 50 year olds, where the PL leads by 16.3 points. Curiously, the PL also enjoys its lowest levels (36.5%) of support in the same age group. But this age group now harbours the highest percentage of non-voters (35.2%) and the highest percentage of those who will vote for a third party (8%). On the other hand, support for the PN in this age group falls to just 20.2%.  

Although support for third parties in general is highest in the 36- to 50-year-old bracket, Cassola’s Momentum scores its highest score among pensioners (3.4%). 

The survey shows Labour leading by 4.9 points among over 65-year-olds, by nearly 13.9 points among 51- to 65-year-olds and by only 4.1% among under 35 year olds. 

Women more likely to support PN 

While the PL enjoys a strong 17.9-point advantage among men, its lead drops to just 4.1 points among women. The survey also shows an educational divide between tertiary educated voters, amongst which the PN leads by  13.5 points, and the rest of the population, where Labour enjoys a comfortable lead ranging from 16 points among the secondary educated to 30 points among those with a primary level of education. 

TRUST BAROMETER: Abela trounces Grech with 31-point trust lead 

Robert Abela is trusted by half the voters in a one-on-one with Bernard Grech, who is now trusted by less than a fifth of voters. 

The results from MaltaToday’s Trust Barometer for June show that Abela is trusted by 50%, up 3.5 points since April, while Grech’s rating has dropped by 1.2 points. 

Grech’s rating at 18.8% is the worst result since February 2024 when he received a rating of 16.7%. 

Grech’s drop in the trust barometer coincided with rumours spread by the Labour media and denied by the PN of his imminent resignation. 

The decline in Grech’s rating since the last survey is mostly attributable to an increase in Abela’s rating since the percentage of those who trust neither leader has decreased by 2.3 points. 

The trust gap between Abela and Grech has increased from 16 points in September 2024 to 18 points in November to 22 points in February 2025, to 27 points in April and a staggering 31.2 points now. 

While the survey confirms Abela’s strong advantage over Grech, it also suggests that Grech’s poor rating is not deterring a sizeable number of voters, who trust neither of the two leaders, from voting for the PN if an election is held now. 

In fact, 42.7% of current PN voters trust neither leader and 5% trust Abela more than Grech but would still vote PN. And while only 52.3% of current PN voters trust Grech, a staggering 98.4% of current Labour voters trust Abela. 

What is definitely bad news for the Nationalists is Grech’s extremely low standing among current non-voters. This is a strategic category where the PN needs to make inroads to secure victory in the next general election. In this sizeable category, only 5.1% trust Grech to run the country, while 23.8% trust Abela. This suggests that if trust is a factor that determines voting preference in this vital category, the PL has more room to grow than the PN does. 

Abela leads in all six regions 

Despite Labour trailing the PN in two out of six regions, Abela leads Grech in all regions, including Gozo. In Gozo, although the PN is leading, trust in the Opposition leader has dipped from 36.9% in February to 19.4% in April to just 16.4% now. In this region, the percentage who trust neither leader peaks at 44.8%. 

Grech registers his lowest trust rating in the South Eastern region where he is only trusted by a meagre 7.5%. On the other hand, he enjoys his highest trust rating in the Western region (25.9%) and the North Harbour (24.9%). 

Meanwhile, Abela’s trust rating ranges from 38.7% in Gozo to a staggering 66.9% in the South Harbour region, which includes the PL’s Cottonera stronghold. 

Only 10% of young voters trust Grech 

In a clear indication of Grech’s failure to communicate with young voters, the PN leader’s trust rating among under 35-year-olds has decreased from 12.1% to just 9.6%. Grech’s trust rating remains abysmal (12.7%) among 36- to 55-year-olds but increases to 34% among pensioners. 

Abela registers his highest trust rating (58.2%) among those in the 51 to 65 years bracket. His trust rating in other age groups ranges between 46% and 49%. 

Abela more trusted by males 

The survey once again shows that Abela is more trusted by males (53.1%) than by females (48.3%). Conversely, Grech is trusted more by females (21.3%) than males (16.2%). 

Abela is also more trusted than Grech in all educational groups. But an absolute majority of the tertiary educated (51.5%) trusts neither of the two leaders.  An absolute majority, ranging from 52% among those with a post-secondary level of education to 61% among those with a primary level of education trusts Abela. But the PL leader is only trusted by 34.6% among those with a tertiary level of education. The bad news for the PN is that Grech is only trusted by 13.9% in this category. 

PERFORMANCE BAROMETER: Government scores 3.1 out of 5 

For the second consecutive time respondents have given the government a mean score of 3.1 out of 5 when asked to rate the administration’s performance. 

This suggests that the government’s approval rating has remained stable over the past two months. Previously, the government’s score had increased by 0.2 points from February and a more significant increase of 0.4 points from November last year.  

Respondents were asked to rate the administration’s performance on a scale of 0 (very bad) to 5 (very good). 

A breakdown by age shows the government enjoying its highest rating among 51- to 65-year-olds. In this category of voters, government’s rating increases to 3.4. The lowest rating is obtained among those aged 36 to 50 (2.9). 

On a regional level the government’s rating ranges from 2.8 in Gozo to 3.4 in the South Harbour region. 

Not surprisingly, current PN voters give the government the lowest rating (2.1) and current Labour voters the highest rating (4.2). But even among current PN voters 50% give the government a rating of 3 or more. 

The government also manages to surpass the pass mark among current non-voters who give the administration a positive rating of 2.6.  

A breakdown by educational background shows the government registering the highest score among respondents with a primary level of education (3.7) and the lowest among those with a tertiary education (2.7).