MaltaToday survey: Alex Borg is front-runner but nearly half of PN members are undecided

A relative majority of Nationalist Party members don’t know who should lead the party but Alex Borg emerges as the favourite among those who are decided. 

The 29-year-old Gozitan MP is the front-runner, followed by former leader Adrian Delia and former MP Franco Debono trailing a distant third. 

But the outcome remains uncertain due to the high percentage of undecided members or those split between different candidates. 

This emerges from a MaltaToday survey carried out among 564 people from an anonymised list of party members. 

While Borg enjoys the support of just under one in four members (23.2%) and Delia slightly more than one in 10 (11.2%), the vote remains wide open, with undecided or non-committed members having the crucial say. These include 40% who have not yet made up their minds and 4% who gave no answer. 

Moreover, the survey was held before the party opens the process for receiving expressions of interest from potential candidates in the coming days. Party members were asked who their preferred choice for leader is without being presented with names. They were at liberty to mention anyone they like. 

The survey also shows that 21.8% support other candidates: 5.5% for Franco Debono, 3.7% for Mark Anthony Sammut, 3.7% for Darren Carabott, and 1.8% for Roberta Metsola, despite declaring she will not be in the race. 

The difference between these ‘minor’ candidates falls squarely within the survey’s four-point margin of error. A further 7% mentioned other candidates, each receiving less than 1.8%. 

A survey leaked to the Times of Malta last week showed very similar results, with Borg leading at 27.5% and Delia at 19.3%. The difference between the two surveys falls within the margin of error.  

Borg stronger among under 50-year-olds 

The survey indicates that female party members (44.8%) are more undecided than males (36%), with Borg more favoured by males (25.1%) than females (21.1%). 

Support for Franco Debono is also higher among males (6.9%) than females (3.8%). Delia’s support among males (11.6%) is only slightly higher than among females (10.7%). 

By age, Borg is stronger among younger and middle-aged members, with support rising from 32.4% among under-35s to 38.4% among 36–50s, before falling to 26.5% among 51–65s and 15.4% among over-65s. 

Among pensioners, Delia and Borg enjoy equal support, but Delia’s support drops to under 6% among the under-50s. Franco Debono is the second most popular among both 16–35s and 36–50s. Mark Anthony Sammut enjoys similar support to Delia among under-50s, while Darren Carabott is stronger among over-65s. 

Significantly, indecision is greatest among pensioners, among whom 49% remain undecided. 

Delia does better among those with a primary or secondary education (12.9% in both), while Borg is strongest among those with a post-secondary (29.5%) or tertiary education (27.9%). Franco Debono (8.2%) and Mark Anthony Sammut (5.7%) peak among tertiary-educated respondents. 

How the PN leader is elected 

The high number of undecided members reflects the fact that the leadership race has not yet formally started and no one has so far made known their intentions publicly. 

After Sunday’s general council where the process formally kicks off, the ball is passed onto the party’s electoral commission. 

The commission has three days to issue an expression of interest, which remains open for seven days. 

The commission will then pass on the names of candidates who showed an interest to a different body which carries out a due diligence exercise to determine their suitability. This exercise can last six weeks. 

It is only those candidates who pass the vetting process that can formally put forward their nomination. 

To be nominated, a candidate must secure endorsements from at least three PN MPs, five local councillors, 10 members of the executive committee, 50 general council members, and 50 paid-up members. 

The PN leader is elected through a two-stage process. If more than two candidates are nominated, a secret vote is taken in the general council with the top two candidates proceeding to the next and final round of voting among all paid-up members (tesserati). 

If only two candidates contest, both proceed directly to the members’ vote. 

If, on the other hand, just one candidate is nominated, only one vote is taken in the General Council where a simple majority will suffice. In this case, party members do not get a chance to vote.