MaltaToday budget survey: Labour gets strong vote of confidence on public finances

SUMMARY

Voters give the Labour Party a strong vote of confidence in the running of the country’s finances and economy, MaltaToday’s post-budget survey shows.

Nearly half of respondents say they trust the PL on this crucial aspect of government. On the flip side, only a fifth of voters trust the Nationalist Party and crucially only 1.2% of current non-voters trust the PN more than Labour to run the country’s finances.

The survey carried out after the budget speeches of Alex Borg and Robert Abela, also shows a favourable assessment of the budget and the performance of Finance Minister Clyde Caruana, who receives a pass mark even among PN voters.

However, when asked about the budget’s impact on their personal finances, 41% say this has not changed. This possibly reflects the targeted tax cut for families with children, which has left other categories of voters unmoved by Budget 2026.

TRUST TO RUN PUBLIC FINANCES, ECONOMY

Majority trust Labour with country’s finances

If the electoral mood in Malta reflects the ‘it’s the economy stupid’ catchphrase, the Labour Party should be in for an easy ride.

The November MaltaToday survey shows that just under half (49.7%) of voters trust the PL with running the country’s finances and economy. Only a fifth (20.7%) trust the Nationalist Party, while 27.7% trust neither of the two parties on finances and the economy. Only 1.9% trust smaller parties.

The PN’s lack of gravitas on this crucial aspect of governance is underlined by the fact that only 51.7% of its current voters trust it  with the country’s finances. Remarkably 15.3% of PN voters trust Labour, while the rest trust neither party (32.7%).

The good news for the PN is that some people would still vote for it despite trusting Labour more on this crucial topic. But the PN’s light weight image on financial matters could be a serious obstacle in winning over voters currently intent on not voting. Crucially, among this electorally strategic category only 1.2% trust the PN with the country’s finances while 30.9% trust Labour.

Significantly, Labour is trusted more with running the country’s  finances by all demographic groups including an absolute majority of  51- to 64-year-olds (50.6%) and over 65-year-olds (53.3%). However, among those under 35 and those aged between 36 and 50, a significant 38% trust neither of the two parties. But even among these two cohorts only 14% trust the PN. In contrast, 48.2% of those aged under 35, and 46.9% of 36- to 50-year-olds, trust Labour.

A regional breakdown shows that the PN enjoys its highest trust on economic and financial matters in Gozo (31.5%), a possible reflection of Alex Borg’s Gozitan roots. On the flip side, the PN’s lowest level of trust is registered in the South Eastern region (13.7%). Labour is most trusted in the south east (61.7%) and least trusted in the Northern region (43%).

A breakdown by educational level shows that a relative majority of tertiary educated respondents (42.1%) trust Labour with the economy—significantly more than the 17.2% who trust the PN. Among this category, 39.3% trust neither party. Trust in Labour’s economic credentials is even higher among those with a secondary level of education (55.1%) and those with a primary level (58.1%) of education.

Labour is the preferred economic manager among both men and women, but while only 15.6% of men trust the PN the percentage increases to 25.4% among women.

BUDGET IMPACT AND RATING

50% see no improvement after budget

The budget was dubbed as “the best budget ever” and yet half of respondents in MaltaToday’s survey think it has left them in the same financial position as before or worse.

The November survey, which was carried out after the two main leaders delivered their speeches, shows that two out of five respondents (40.5%) have not seen an improvement in their financial position after the budget.

But while only 9% say they are worse off, 30% think Budget 2026 has left them better off. A fifth (20.4%) are not sure of the budget’s impact on their personal situation.

The large cohort of voters who feel their financial situation has remained the same could be an indication that a large segment of the population has not benefitted from the significant tax cuts directed towards families with children.

Compared to last year, the percentage of those who have seen no change in their financial position after the budget has increased from 36% to 40.5%, while the percentage of those who have seen an improvement has also increased from 24.2% to 30%. The number of those who think they are worse off has also declined from 13% to 9%.

The survey also shows that the budget is perceived differently by different categories, with over-65s, whose pensions have been boosted by €10 a week increase, including COLA, being the most likely to feel a positive impact on their life. In fact, among this category, 41.7% have seen a positive impact. Only 27.3% of pensioners think their position remains unchanged, while 9% think they are now worse off.

In contrast, more than half of those (52.8%) aged between 16 and 35 think their position has remained unchanged and only 21.3% think they are better off after the budget.

This could reflect the fact that this category, which includes students and people at the start of their career are less likely to have children, thus being ineligible for the tax cuts that will come into effect in January. In fact, the percentage of those who have seen an improvement increases to 29.7% among 36- to 50-year-olds, a category that includes more beneficiaries of the latest tax cuts. But the percentage of those who think they are now better off decreases to 26.5% among 51- to 65-year-olds.

A regional breakdown shows that the highest percentage of people who have seen an improvement is found in the South Eastern region (41.8%) and the lowest in the densely populated North Harbour area (22.7%).

Not surprisingly, when the results are analysed by political allegiance, 56% of current PL voters report an improvement in their personal financial position. On the other hand, 50.2% of PN voters report remaining in the same position.

Among the politically strategic category of non-voters, only 17.3% report an improvement while 43.9% report no change to their personal financial state after the budget.

Budget gets thumbs up: Rated 3.2 out of 5

The budget itself is positively rated by all categories of respondents, including PN voters and non-voters.

PN voters rate the budget at 2.5 out of 5 and current non-voters rate it at 2.8. Labour voters give Budget 2026 the highest rating at 4.1 out of five. Compared to last year, the survey shows the budget rating increasing from 3.1 to 3.2.

A breakdown by age shows the budget enjoying its highest rating among over 65-year-olds (3.5) and the lowest among 16- to 35-year-olds (3). A breakdown by education shows a higher appreciation among the primary educated (3.5) compared to a lower but still rosy rating of three among the tertiary educated.

Despite tilting towards the PN in terms of voting intentions, Gozitans also give the budget a high rating of 3.3. This is the third highest regional rating after that of the PL’s strongholds—South Eastern region (3.4) and the South Harbour (3.4). The lowest rating was given by respondents in Northern region (3).

People were asked to rate the budget on a scale from 0 to 5, zero representing the worst rating and five the best. The survey was conducted after the budget speeches of the Opposition leader and the prime minister.

FINANCE MINISTER RATING

Clyde Caruana gets 3.4 out of 5

For the third consecutive year, Finance Minister Clyde Caruana has passed his budget test with flying colours.

Voters in MaltaToday’s November survey give him an average score of 3.4 out of 5, up from 3.1 in 2024 and 2.9 in 2023.

MaltaToday respondents were asked to rate Caruana’s performance from 0 (lowest score) to 5 (highest score). 

The results suggest he enjoys a favourable rating across a wide category of voters. Among non-voters Caruana manages to clinch a score of 3.1.

And in a clear sign of the respect he enjoys across the board, Caruana even surpasses the pass mark among PN voters, who give him a score of 2.6 out of 5. Less surprisingly, Caruana is given a massive 4.3 rating among PL voters.

A breakdown by age shows the finance minister clinching his best score among over 65-year-olds, amongst which his rating reaches the 3.5 mark. This could be an indication of Labour’s focus on sustaining pensions in recent budgets. Caruana gets a slightly lower mark among those aged between 51 and 65.

On a regional level Caruana gets his best in score in the South Eastern region (3.7) followed by Gozo (3.6).

Caruana, an economist by profession, has been serving as finance minister since November 2020 after having been co-opted to parliament. In the 2022 general election, which was his first, he was elected on the 2nd and 8th districts.