[WATCH] US expert Mark Rozell: 'Election is anyone’s game, but Trump may have an advantage'

With a month left until the US presidential election, the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is shaping up to be a tight race.

As they battle it out for the keys to the White House, the outcome will very likely be decided in a handful of battleground states.

To understand the key issues shaping the campaign, I sit down with Professor Mark Rozell, founding Dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University.

Abortion is one of the strongest issues for Harris, as the 2022 Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade remains unpopular. However, Rozell points out that many voters prioritise the economy and inflation over social issues. This could favour Donald Trump, even among those who disagree with his stance on abortion.

Other significant issues include immigration, healthcare, education, and climate change, with the state of the economy topping the list of voter concerns.

Regarding foreign policy, there are concerns about Trump's unpredictability, particularly his stance on NATO and relationships with authoritarian leaders. Rozell says Trump's previous statements have fuelled fears that he may weaken US alliances, but it's unclear whether this is a negotiation tactic or a genuine threat.

This election is taking place against the backdrop of escalating conflict in the Middle East, particularly between Israel, Palestine, and now Lebanon. While Jewish Americans traditionally lean Democratic, Trump has gained support among some conservative factions. In contrast, Biden's support among Arab Americans, particularly in swing states like Michigan, has declined due to his administration's stance on the Israel-Gaza conflict, which poses challenges for Harris in maintaining strong Democratic support.

The rise of political violence and threats against election workers since 2020 is another concern, potentially deterring people from participating in the democratic process. Additionally, celebrity endorsements are seen as largely inconsequential in swaying voter behaviour, despite the excitement they may generate.

While Rozell refrains from making a firm prediction on the election outcome, acknowledging the race is too close to call, he notes the election will likely hinge on swing states, particularly Pennsylvania. But while Harris has a slight edge in national polls, Trump may have a slight advantage in key battleground states.

The following is an excerpt of the interview.

Follow the full interview also on Facebook and Spotify.

What are some of the key issues that are influencing the campaign?

So far, the state of the economy and rising inflation are at the very top of the list of voters concerned. There have been polls asking voters what the issues are they most prioritise in this election. The state of the economy, overall, is number 1. But also, immigration has risen very high in the list of voter concerns. And then there's a host of other issues that are typical of any American election cycle: healthcare, education, climate issues, and the abortion issue, which falls down about 5th or 6th priority in several polls. It's not at the very top.

There are fears that a Donald Trump in office, during a tense time geopolitically, would disengage from NATO or engage more with Russia. Are these fears justified?

Trump is not an easily predictable political figure. I've lectured in several European countries this year about the US elections, and I have heard repeatedly, and understandably, a deep concern about what Trump's priorities will be regarding America's traditional alliances should he be elected again, particularly about America's commitment to NATO. I think these are very well-founded concerns because of some of the things that Trump himself has said and threatened.

There's two different ways to look at it. Either he means it, and he's a threat to the traditional alliances and he is very enamoured of strongman leaders and authoritarian leaders in other countries. Or this is Trump the negotiator taking the extreme outlier position as a threat to make others think maybe he will do it and pull America out of its traditional alliances, and so we have to get in line with what he’s demanding in order to sustain American support. And I just have to be honest, I don't know which one it is. He's not an easily predictable character, but I do absolutely understand the concerns that many of America's allies have abroad.

The Jewish vote in America is quite influential but has tended more towards the political left. In view of the situation in the Middle East, could there be a move to the political right?

The polling data showed that the overwhelming majority of Jewish Americans still lean Democratic, not Republican. But there has been a rising minority of Republican voting Jews in the United States. Trump appealed to Ultra-Orthodox Jews, for example, those who say that they want to take a very staunch defence of Israel's self-interest position. So there has been a decline in the Republican losses among Jewish voters in the United States, but we have not seen a fundamental shift of Jewish voting from Democrat to majority Republican.

And how could the conflict possibly impact the American Muslim voting population?

Where that really matters, I think, is in the state of Michigan. Projections say that there are upwards of 300,000 Arab Americans in the state of Michigan. This presidential election is going to be fought in six or seven key swing states in the Electoral College where it's not clear which candidate has the advantage right now. But those states will decide the election. Michigan is one of them. 

The margins in Michigan and the latest two election cycles were very close and are projected to be very close again. The polling data show that Biden's support, for example, among Arab Americans, has declined dramatically since the Israel Gaza war. And that's particularly concerning for Kamala Harris, because of course as a part of the Biden Harris administration, those who are unhappy with the current administration's policies in support of Israel and its actions in Gaza are naturally going to hold her somewhat to account for that. But on the other hand, she needs to have a somewhat different message from Joe Biden in this campaign about how the US acts going forward regarding the Israel Gaza crisis. She needs to separate herself somewhat from the policies that have alienated many Muslim and Arab Americans from their usual strong support for Democratic presidential candidates.

Do celebrity endorsements matter in the presidential election?

There is no evidence that these endorsements have any significant impact on actual voting behaviour. Now, will it be different this year? Potentially. I talked to a lot of young people, many of whom loved Taylor Swift and they got all excited when she made an endorsement because they like Kamala Harris and they think that's going to make the difference.

I remember in 2004 when Bruce Springsteen endorsed John Kerry against George W Bush. Everybody loves Bruce Springsteen in America, even Republicans like Bruce Springsteen. He was campaigning all over the country with John Kerry, but John Kerry never became a president. 

I can tell you time and again when influential celebrities have made these endorsements, it got a little bit of emphasis in a news cycle or two, some people got excited about it, but then the polling data shows it just didn't really make any difference to voting behaviour.

Do you feel comfortable giving a prediction for the election?

I think it’s entirely too close right now. But, I’ll say this: Among the swing states and the Electoral College, if Kamala Harris has an advantage, it's in the Upper Midwest, Michigan, Wisconsin. I think probably Trump has a little bit of an advantage in the South, North Carolina and Georgia and possibly in the southwest, Arizona and Nevada. So potentially the whole election comes down to Pennsylvania.

Now, one thing I think is important to point out is that Kamala Harris has somewhat grown her national public opinion polling support over time since becoming candidate. Right now, the average of the national polls has her up about 3% nationally over Donald Trump, but we don't elect presidents by national popular vote. It's winner takes all state by state, and it's those seven key states that matter. The margins are much thinner in those seven key states in the Electoral College than they are in the national popular opinion polls. That's a potential problem for Kamala Harris because Donald Trump in the past has slightly outperformed what the polls suggested he would achieve on Election Day. 

I think that gives Trump perhaps just a little bit of advantage right now. What we don't know is whether Kamala Harris is going to continue her positive momentum over the coming weeks, which is, I think absolutely necessary because where things stand right now, I'd probably want to be in Trump's position and not hers.