Looking back at 2020 | Gloomy 2020 leaves PL ahead in the polls

Robert Abela became prime minister in January on the back of a political crisis that rocked the Labour administration to its core.

The incoming prime minister had to deal with the fallout that saw Joseph Muscat step out of Castille in January and eventually resign from parliament in October.

Konrad Mizzi was kicked out of the Labour Party and Chris Cardona was asked to resign as Abela trimmed off the compromised branches.

The fallout also saw police chief Lawrence Cutajar and attorney general Peter Grech being replaced.

And to top it all, Abela’s government had to deal with a global pandemic that brought countries and societies to their knees.

It is arguably the most tumultuous start for any prime minister since independence.

But despite this gloomy backdrop, surveys carried out by MaltaToday continued to give the Labour Party a strong lead over the Nationalist Party.

The PL posted its strongest showings between February and May, as voters warmed up to Abela’s strong-willed approach to tackle the political crisis and appreciated his administration’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Malta’s first coronavirus case was reported on 7 March with schools closing a couple of weeks later.

The handling of the pandemic in that period was exceptional as Malta avoided the crisis witnessed in neighbouring Italy.

This reflected itself in the survey numbers. Support for the PL grew from 49.2% in February to 51.9% in May.

Support for the PL dipped and settled at an average of 44.4% between June and December, possibly reflecting the criticism Abela faced over his loose talk over the summer dismissing the second wave of the pandemic, and the subsequent increase in deaths, especially in old people’s homes.

October spelt the worst result for the PL in three years as it registered 40.3% but went on to recover the lost ground in the final two months of the year.

But the PL’s fortunes have also to be viewed in the context of a PN that was riven by internal fighting that eventually led to a change of leadership in October.

Part of the substantial advantage the PL enjoyed throughout the year could be attributed to the PN’s inability to convince even its own voters.

In the seven months between February and September, the PN under Adrian Delia registered an average of 22%. In March, as Delia faced his first open revolt for the year, the PN registered its worst result in three years at 19.1%.

After Bernard Grech’s election to leader at the start of October, the PN saw its support increase.

In the last three months of the year, the Opposition party registered an average of 30.9% as Grech managed to sway back PN dissenting voters.

The change in leadership gave the PN a boost but the gap with Labour remained daunting.

By the end of 2020 the state of play between the two major parties returned to what it was in the 2017 general election, which Labour won by a margin of more than 35,000 votes.

To have a fighting chance in the next general election, the PN has to start convincing people who voted PL to shift allegiance. With time not on his side, this is Grech’s biggest challenge in 2021.

And it will not be easy because Abela maintained a relatively high trust rating throughout 2020 even if the Prime Minister lost some of his lustre in the final three months.

Abela registered an average trust rating of 47.3% between October and December, while Grech chalked up an average of 30.8%.

The interplay between both leaders is still new and it has to be seen whether these results will represent the new normal in 2021.