Council results give PN hope but it’s still a long way to Castille

The local council results have given the Labour Party an absolute majority nationwide, but the party has lost ground in all electoral districts, a MaltaToday analysis shows.

Local election results grouped by electoral district show the PL has lost votes in all 13 regions with Gozo flipping to the Nationalist Party.

After the 8 June election, the local councils map is bluer today than it has ever been in the past 15 years after the PN won majorities in localities across central and northern Malta.

The overall result still sees the PN trailing the PL by around 20,000 votes but with the gap slashed by more than half, it leaves the PN hopeful that come the general election it could be a worthy competitor.

In ordinary circumstances, the PL’s performance in local councils would be hailed as a major victory - it did obtain 52.1% of the overall vote after all. But these are no ordinary circumstances.

The PL has enjoyed supermajorities surpassing the 30,000-vote gap for more than a decade and in the 2019 local council elections it beat the PN by a whopping 47,000 votes. But after enjoying another emphatic victory in the 2022 general election the PL’s decline has been sudden and dramatic.

As much as the result leaves the PN hopeful it serves as a warning light for the PL. Robert Abela’s party cannot take its super majorities for granted and the movement of voters towards the PN and independent candidates means there is now a larger cohort of people willing to listen to what others have to say.

Gozo turns blue

The MaltaToday analysis, which grouped local council results according to the electoral district in which the locality falls, shows that the PL enjoys an absolute majority in the first six districts. In the 7th District, which includes, Żebbuġ, the PL enjoys a relative majority after a strong showing by independent candidates.

The PN enjoys absolute majorities in all districts between the 8th and 13th.

The major difference with 2019 is that the PN managed to flip Gozo in its favour, obtaining 50.6% this year against the PL’s 46.1%. Five years ago, local elections saw the PL win Gozo with 50.4%, a trend that was later confirmed in the 2022 general election, when it went on to win the 13th District with 53.5%.

In Saturday’s local elections the PN managed to flip Żebbuġ (Gozo) in its favour, while the PL suffered significant losses in Qala despite winning a majority.

The PL’s poor performance in Gozo is likely to come under the spotlight within party circles, especially since the district is represented in Cabinet by no less than three ministers – Clint Camilleri, Anton Refalo and Jo Etienne Abela.

PL loses ground everywhere

However, the analysis also shows that the PL suffered losses in all districts, some significantly heavier than others.

The PL’s heaviest losses were in the 7th District, where it lost 9.9 points over 2019, followed by the 8th District, which includes Birkirkara, where it shed 9.2 points.

The PL’s third highest decrease was registered in the 3rd District, which includes Marsaskala, where it saw its share of the vote decline by 7.3 points.

The PL was least damaged in the 2nd District, which includes its hotbed of Cottonera, where its vote declined by 1.6 points, and the 1st District, which includes Valletta, where it lost 2.4 points.

The PL’s highest score was obtained in the 2 District, where it polled 75.2%, followed by the 3rd and 4th districts, where it scored 70.4% and 70.1% respectively.

Its worst score was in the 10th District, a PN stronghold, where it polled 33.4%, followed by 36.4% in the 11th District.

PN gains everywhere

Not all of Labour’s losses went to the PN, which is a sign that voters are not yet convinced that the Opposition is a government in waiting. However, the PN has cause for hope since it registered improvements across all districts.

The PN’s strongest gains were in the 11th District, which includes Mosta that it managed to flip. In this district, the PN saw its share of the vote increase by 6.5 points.

The second highest gains were registered in the 9th District, where the PN vote increased by 6.1 points. This district includes the localities of Msida and San Gwann, which the PN flipped in its favour.

The lowest gains were registered in the 1st and 2nd districts, where the PN only managed to increase its vote tallies by 0.8 points and 1.4 points respectively.

In the 7th District, where the PL shed almost 10 points, the PN only managed to increase its tally by 1.9 points as voters opted for independent candidates.

It must be noted that in Ħaż-Żebbuġ (part of the 7th District), two independent candidates, incumbent Steve Zammit Lupi and his mother Lillibeth, were elected to the council and together with a third independent managed to poll almost a third of the locality’s votes.

The PN’s best result was obtained in the 10th District, which includes Sliema, where it scored 62.9%. The next best showing was in the 9th and 11th districts, where it polled 61.3% and 61.1% respectively.

Its worst result was in the 2nd District where it secured 24.4% of votes, followed by the 3rd District where it secured 26.4%. The local election results show that despite its modest gains in Labour’s strongholds, the PN still has a lot of work to do to breach the red wall along the south-eastern front.

The road ahead

Although local elections can be influenced by several factors that may not be present in a general election, they do give a strong indication of the public mood.

The PL should be toasting its success – an absolute majority across all districts is not something to be ignored – but party strategists know that unless the government takes stock of the situation, what started as a significant decline could easily turn into a downward vortex by election time.

The losses the party has suffered are the first such experience in 15 years and the only reason they weren’t heavier is because the PN is still being viewed with caution by voters.

The tide against Labour may continue to advance if an emboldened PN keeps its feet to the ground and continues to change over the coming years.

For the PN, the results offer a glimmer of hope in an otherwise arid period which has seen the party deprived of an absolute majority in the country since the 2003 election. The way to Castille is still a hard slog for Bernard Grech but with renewed vigour the PN may yet identify and address the reasons that are still keeping voters away from it.

With the next electoral appointment due in 2027, both parties will now return to the drawing board to chart out a course to success. But in an evolving political scenario where voters have shown willingness to support third parties and independents, neither the PL nor the PN can be assured of a straight road ahead.