[ANALYSIS] Neck and neck: The key stats shaping the PL’s and PN's prospects

Surveys held between 2009 and 2023 consistently showed the Labour Party commanding a lead beyond the margin of error. The different surveys varied on the size of the gap but they did not differ on who was leading. 

However, with the parties now neck and neck, this is no longer the case. For instance, the latest MaltaToday survey puts the Nationalist Party ahead by one percentage point, or 2,600 votes, based on a turnout of 71%. But with a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points, the gap between the parties could range from a PN lead of 4.8 points (12,000 votes) to a PL lead of 2.7 points (7,000 votes). In such a scenario, it is perfectly normal for pollsters to report different results, placing either party in the lead. 

This does not invalidate the findings of any survey. In fact, when the electorate is evenly split, it is expected that surveys will yield varying results. 

As was the case before 2008, pollsters will look for other tell-tale signs to interpret results. Moreover, the public deserves clearer explanations to avoid polls being perceived as some sort of divination exercise. This is why political polls include different questions, with the most revealing insights often found in cross-tabulations. The focus of this analysis is to identify the strongest indicators of which party is ahead. 

Non-voters: 31% of current non-voters prefer Abela to Grech 

The MaltaToday poll asks respondents to state which of the two major party leaders they trust most to run the country. MT surveys have consistently shown Abela enjoying a substantial lead over Opposition leader Bernard Grech. 

However, it would be inaccurate to interpret an 18-point lead for Abela as an 18-point lead for Labour. This is because around a quarter of PN voters trust neither leader. A significant portion of voters, therefore, do not trust Grech but may still vote for a change in government. 

Conversely, there is a notable group of voters who trust Abela but would not vote if an election were held now. In the latest survey, while 31% of non-voters trust Abela, only 4% trust Grech. Meanwhile, 65% trust neither leader. Assuming turnout in a general election will exceed the current 71%, it is likely that non-voters who prefer Abela to Grech would lean towards Labour. The survey suggests Labour has more room for growth than the PN. 

However, another important variable is non-voters who trust neither leader, who might ultimately vote for the PN. The fact that non-voters currently lean Labour – 26% of PL voters in 2022 now intend not to vote, compared to just 4% of PN voters – is both a concern and an opportunity for Labour. Much depends on the party’s ability to win them back. 

Third parties: PN gains from Labour cancelled out by losses to third parties 

One crucial factor in elections with tight margins is the performance of third parties. The latest MaltaToday survey places support for third parties at 8%, consistent with results over the past year. While the latest survey indicates a small shift from Labour to the PN – with 4.1% of PL voters from 2022 now intending to vote PN, compared to 2.7% of PN voters shifting to Labour – this results in a net shift of 3,300 votes from PL to PN. 

However, these gains are offset by PN losses to third parties. Labour loses only 1.2% of its voters (2,000 votes) to third parties, whereas the PN loses 7.8% (9,600 votes) to ADPD and others. This highlights the PN’s vulnerability to smaller parties, including new formations such as Arnold Cassola's embryonic initiative. According to Illum, PN insiders have expressed concerns about the potential impact of Cassola’s party. The survey indicates that 4.1% of PN voters now support a mix of small parties, with ADPD accounting for 3.7%. 

While this could be a temporary trend, as MEP elections have shown that Labour can also lose votes to third parties or independents, the consistent pattern indicates that disgruntled Labour voters tend to abstain, whereas PN voters are more inclined to switch to third parties. 

Winning back third-party voters is more challenging than re-engaging abstainers, as third-party supporters may develop a distinct political identity. Cassola’s recognition and credibility could exacerbate this challenge. Moreover, as the PN seeks to gain the trust of major financial interests to present itself as a government in waiting, it risks losing ground to opposition parties advocating tougher stances on issues like the Villa Rosa project. In this sense, by trying to chase with the hounds and run with the hares, Grech could be inadvertently contributing to the PN’s haemorrhage. 

Incumbency: Government is still viewed favourably 

Globally, governing parties are often punished by restless electorates. Yet, despite the Labour Party’s declining fortunes, surveys indicate that the Abela-led government still receives a favourable rating of 2.7 out of 5 – a respectable score for a government navigating a challenging international climate. The latest budget is rated 3 out of 5, and Labour remains more trusted than the PN in managing the economy. 

However, challenges remain. Despite Labour’s positive track record on economic growth, 35% of respondents trust neither party to manage public finances, compared to 28% who trust Labour and 16% who trust the PN. This indicates dissatisfaction with the economic model driving growth. Notably, among non-voters, 10% trust Labour as the better economic manager, while none trust the PN. 

Verdict: Labour has a larger pond from which to fish votes 

When considering these three factors – greater trust in Abela, particularly among current non-voters; the PN’s vulnerability to third parties; and the incumbent’s favourable approval ratings – it appears that Labour has a better chance of securing another victory, albeit with a reduced margin. 

However, Labour could still be derailed by unforeseen challenges, including a resurgence of inflation due to international instability, internal divisions within the party related to Joseph Muscat’s judicial troubles, and increased competition from third-party candidates appealing to Labour voters.