Looking Back 2024: Cassola’s big tent in the middle… and the rest

Surveys consistently show that third parties are hovering around the 10% mark in the aftermath of the 2024 MEP election, reflecting a significant plurality. 

The election saw third parties and independents collectively secure 13% of the vote. This included 12,706 people (4.7%) who voted for Arnold Cassola, a former green politician turned independent. Despite failing to get elected in his fifth bid for an MEP seat, Cassola immediately announced his intention to form a new big-tent party occupying the centre ground of Maltese politics. 

However, the election proved to be a mixed bag for other third parties and independents, with both Norman Lowell's far-right and Sandra Gauci’s ADPD registering poor results. Apart from Cassola, the other surprise in the election was the socially conservative former Labour mayor of Gzira, Conrad Borg Manche, who garnered 6,000 votes. 

This raises questions about the future of established third parties in Malta and whether Cassola’s initiative can emerge as a unifying force for moderate and progressive voters who shun the established two parties. 

Cassola’s big tent 

The pragmatic Cassola, whose trademark is integrity, level-headedness, and a common-sense approach, has established himself as a household name over the past two decades. He first gained prominence as a leading campaigner for EU membership and later as an anti-corruption crusader with no baggage. 

Yet part of his success is tinged with opportunism, a sense of unashamed protagonism, and an ability to remain in the spotlight. Despite his moderate and relatively conservative views on topics like abortion, he once served as general secretary of the progressive European Greens. After winning 23,000 votes in the first MEP election in 2004 by appealing to centre-right voters, he could not resist the opportunity to serve in the Italian national parliament after successfully standing as a candidate with Romano Prodi’s centre-left coalition. He failed to get elected a second time to the Italian parliament when contesting on a list fronted by then-Communist leader and Speaker Fausto Bertinotti. 

Cassola later returned to lead Alternattiva Demokratika, serving two terms, only to desert the party to contest as an independent, presumably in protest against the party’s evolving stance on abortion. Since then, he has hinted that members of his new party will be allowed to have differing views on the subject. 

After initially proposing a centre-left coalition, Cassola has shifted further towards the centre, even reaching out to new European allies, such as French Prime Minister François Bayrou. His current alignment may ruffle feathers among his most natural allies in left-wing activist groups like Moviment Graffitti, but it may also place him in the best position to win over centre-right voters, floating voters, and anti-corruption activists angered by the PN’s ambivalence on issues like Fort Chambray. 

Cassola’s greatest obstacle remains the sheer difficulty of getting elected under the current electoral system and the yearning for a change of government among some of his potential voters. These voters must decide whether their priority is to oust Labour or elect a third party. But Cassola’s greatest strength remains his ability to build a wave that often transcends ideological boundaries. One key difference now is that Cassola has adopted a more professional approach and is taking the time necessary for his new platform to develop, thanks to the input of his media-savvy team. 

The Greens and the void on the left 

Despite a disastrous result in the European elections, ADPD still managed to elect two local councillors, including party leader Sandra Gauci, who now serves on the St Paul’s Bay council. 

The two most recent MaltaToday polls have gauged ADPD’s support at around 4%. Yet ADPD would face an uncertain future if and when Cassola, who has greater name recognition, forms his own party. ADPD may respond by repositioning itself as a more radical party, to the left of Labour, taking a firm stance on civil liberties and economic issues. Gauci, who has populist appeal, may also be better positioned to connect with former Labour voters who find it hard to warm up to Cassola. 

The best outcome for ADPD may be to join Cassola’s bandwagon in a coalition, where the Greens serve as the progressive pivot in a wider movement that includes both moderates and progressives. 

Manche: The conservative socialist 

One curious phenomenon emerging in Europe is the rise of socially conservative but economically left-leaning parties, as seen with the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) in Germany and, to some extent, the Movimento Cinque Stelle in Italy. These parties tend to shun neoliberalism, demanding more social protections while avoiding identity politics and mass migration. Former Gzira mayor Conrad Borg Manche, who garnered nearly as many votes as Norman Lowell in the MEP election, could be a manifestation of this trend. He projects himself as a disillusioned Mintoffian socialist while harbouring a right-wing streak on issues like migration, LGBTIQ rights, and reproductive rights. 

Still, it is also possible that Manche owes his success to his activism on environmental and local issues, with which he is most identified. Few probably even noticed his Facebook affiliation with the European Conservatives led by Giorgia Meloni. Yet his hotchpotch political formula may be attractive to those who nominally identify with old Labour while flirting with the far-right on other issues. Still, there have been no signs that Manche is behind any new political project, and his failure to retain the post of mayor in Gzira has diminished his stature. 

No inroads for the far right 

One surprising development was the failure of the fragmented Maltese far-right to gain ground in the last MEP election, despite mounting concerns about foreign labour and a favourable international climate. One major reason for this is the extremism of figures like Norman Lowell, whose pronouncements would be unacceptable for mainstream right-wing parties in other EU countries. Voters were also turned off by the eccentricity of an assortment of ultra-conservative traditionalists who contested this election, including the egg-throwing Ivan Grech Mintoff. 

One key factor limiting the rise of the far-right is that, despite opening up the labour market for non-EU workers, Labour still manages to project itself as a hawkish, nationalistic force. It counterbalances the economic necessity of opening the labour market with occasional clampdowns on failed asylum seekers and an assertive discourse in defence of the national interest, even on matters like citizenship by investment and neutrality. It also conveys the idea that foreign workers are temporary guests essential for Malta’s economic growth. This strategy defies long-term integration but temporarily dilutes anti-immigrant sentiments.