Leadership quandary for PN over anointment of Busuttil

Senior PN officials have told MaltaToday that a fully-blown contestation for the deputy leadership of the Nationalist Party could be seen as damaging to the perception of the party, due to the internal divisions that erupted in the last year.

As Nationalist MEP Simon Busuttil looks favourite to take on the deputy leadership role vacated by Tonio Borg, who has been nominated commissioner-designate for the health and consumer policy portfolio in the European Commission, speculation is growing on whether ministers Chris Said and Mario de Marco and MP Beppe Fenech Adami, will contest the deputy leadership.

As one official told MaltaToday, part of the party believes the possible contestants should set aside their individual ambitions and place the party's interest first:

"The rallying call is: 'let's close ranks and leave the bigger contestation, if defeated at the polls, to after the election. Let's settle for a coronation rather than a blood bath'. Political pragmatism is winning the day. A coronation is the lesser of two evils. And although not everybody agrees, all of them will warm up to the prevailing attitude in the party.

"The advantage for the non-contestants - of not being tainted by electoral defeat - is a strong argument in favour of them playing the waiting game."

Busuttil can bank on popularity, his European experience, telegenic value, and - a plus for the Gonzi clan - the ability to control the party apparatus. With him as deputy leader, the PN might as well close the gap it is experiencing at the polls with disgruntled Nationalists returning to the fold once they see in Busuttil some hope for the future.

Busuttil also lends the PN an air of rejuvenation that is currently Labour's, propping up Lawrence Gonzi in the forthcoming campaign and using his young sidekick to bring out the stark differences with Labour's two deputy leaders, Anglu Farrugia and Toni Abela.

If he does take the deputy leadership, Busuttil is expected to enter into the administration of party affairs from the Stamperija headquarters.

But an 'anointment' might also foment bad blood inside the party. "The sense of imposition may create a democratic deficit, irking both party members and the public at large"

Ditching GonziPN

With Labour enjoying a 12-point lead over the PN and surveys showing Joseph Muscat enjoying more trust than Lawrence Gonzi, the PN appears to be in a quandary: how can the party recover, when what used to be its best asset in 2008 - 'GonziPN' - has turned in to a liability?

While ditching Gonzi at such a late stage would be an admission of failure, restaging GonziPN could be suicidal. Ironically, the PN finds itself in the same position Labour was in 2008 when it was caught wrong-footed by the GonziPN stratagem which capitalised on Labour's Achilles heel: Alfred Sant's leadership.

But the PN has had enough time to think of an alternative formula, even if up until a few days ago there had been no sign of what form this strategy will take except for the candidacy of Simon Busuttil in strategic pale blue districts.

One option which was being floated was that of presenting a leadership tandem or team to counteract Muscat's presidential style, a tactic reminiscent of the the Sant-Abela-Vella troika in 1996 which successfully defeated a Eddie Fenech Adami's PN.

The ace up the PN's sleeve

John Dalli's controversial exit from his post as European Commissioner has set in motion a sequence of events that could ultimately address the PN's two major flaws: the fact that it has been in government for 25 years and the fact that Gonzi's trust has been seriously eroded by his handling of the divorce and honoraria issues.

Ominously, on Independence Day Gonzi started speaking of offering the people to vote for change... by re-voting the PN in office.

The fact that the Prime Minister was informed of the OLAF investigation on John Dalli on 5 July may suggest that he had enough time to dwell on the possible repercussions of this case, including who to appoint as new commissioner in the eventuality that Dalli had to resign.

The Independence Day speech may well be an indication that Gonzi was toying with the idea of change in leadership in a way that change could still come from within the Nationalist Party. 

Tonio Borg's vacancy offers the PN the opportunity of presenting a designate leader along the present leader, a leadership tandem which relies on a mix of Gonzi's experience in handling the international recession and a more dynamic deputy leader who makes up for Gonzi's conservatism and who had no part in those decisions which erodes trust in the PN leader.

One such candidate is Simon Busuttil, already chosen as the PN's envoy to arrange meetings with civil society, who was absent from both the divorce referendum and was not even an MP when the honoraria issue arose.

By presenting a leadership tandem, the PN would be also raising the profile of its deputy leader, something which could present the PL with a difficulty, considering that it has two deputy leaders - Anglu Farrugia and Tony Abela - who lack Busuttil's appeal to middle of the road voters.

Contest or crowning?

The PN's major quandary is whether the next deputy leader will be elected through a democratic contest or simply by appointment. The other quandary is that the person who accepts to serve in this post risks a battering in the next election, after which he would be expected to take part of the blame.

This could be the risk Simon Busuttil would be taking if he contests for the party's deputy leadership. Other candidates may well bide their time, wait for the party to be trounced in the next election, let Busuttil take the blame, and contest for the leadership after the election.

On the other hand, if they contest now they risk being trounced by Busuttil in a way that would weaken any future bid for the leadership after the election. In this scenario, only Busuttil would present his name for the contest. 

This could be a calculation Busuttil himself could be making. Ultimately he could also choose to bide his time instead of burning himself out before such a difficult election.

But by taking on such a challenge in the party's hour of need, Busuttil could well score points within the party's grassroots, and take hold of the internal party machine in a way that gives him an advantage over other candidates in a post-election leadership contest.

Much would depend on the scale of defeat. For, if under the new leadership tandem the PN manages to narrow the gap significantly - even in case of defeat - the way would have been paved for the designate successor to take over a strong opposition.  

The risk for the PN is that a one-horse race for Simon Busuttil would be perceived as a manufactured chess move, while a contest at such a late stage may result in a divisive bloodbath.

If a democratic contest does take place, it will underline the party's democratic credentials. One possible way to enhance these credentials would be to allow all PN members to vote in this contest.