[ANALYSIS] Mizzi for deputy leader: Is Muscat looking for a prop or a successor?

Will the next PL deputy leader prop up Muscat to help him win the next election or will he step in for the leadership after Muscat fulfils his promise to step down after ten years in power? asks James Debono

Labour’s deputy leader for parliamentary affairs, Louis Grech (right) is too old to aspire to become Muscat’s successor
Labour’s deputy leader for parliamentary affairs, Louis Grech (right) is too old to aspire to become Muscat’s successor
Konrad Mizzi (left) and outgoing deputy leader Toni Abela at a Labour Party business breakfast in January 2013
Konrad Mizzi (left) and outgoing deputy leader Toni Abela at a Labour Party business breakfast in January 2013

In politics deputy leaders normally serve two roles: either to prop up the leader by endearing him with the reluctant grass roots, as John Prescott did for Tony Blair in the United Kingdom and Abela did for Muscat in Malta, or to be groomed as future leader in the way Lawrence Gonzi was when he served as Eddie Fenech Adami’s deputy. Mostly deputy leaders fit in the first role (that of propping up the leader) while designate leaders like Gordon Brown shunned serving as official seconds in command.

But sometimes they also serve another role: that of filling a gap either to block others with future aspirations from taking it, or to fill the gap until the time is mature for a real contender to stand out.  This is mostly the case when the authority of the leader is undisputed and talk of succession is seen as premature.

This seems also to be the case with Labour, where Joseph Muscat’s authority in the party is undisputed and where any talk of the succession question seems inopportune and disloyal.

Yet it was Muscat himself who made succession an issue by speaking of stepping down after 10 years in power.  This is why some may be interpreting Toni Abela’s appointment in the European Court of Auditors as an opportunity for Muscat to designate his successor, as Fenech Adami did when Gonzi was elected deputy leader.  

Curiously, Abela’s kick upstairs bears similarity to Tonio Borg’s elevation to EU Commissioner in 2012 to make way for the election of Simon Busuttil to deputy leader, following a contest against Finance Minister Tonio Fenech. It was this contest which paved the way for Busuttil to win the leadership after the 2013 defeat.

But the similarities may well stop here.  For Muscat can’t afford to choose the next Labour leader before the next election, which will determine whether Simon Busuttil will stay on as PN leader. In this sense a candidature by Konrad Mizzi may well be seen as a stop gap measure: that of placing a competent manager and loyalist who lacks the gravitas of a future party leader.  

Ideological drift

Toni Abela’s nomination to the court of auditors has not only cemented the party’s ideological drift to the right but has also paved the way for statute changes to enable the party to elect a deputy leader for party affairs from among its current crop of MPs and MEPs.

Abela, one of the party’s few left wing intellectual voices, served to counterbalance the pro business orientation of Muscat’s party.  His departure may well weaken the party’s appeal to socialists who saw in Abela the last representative in a party dominated by careerists singing Muscat’s pro business mantra.  Abela’s departure would also further weaken the party’s ability to keep the government in check through constructive internal criticism.  

For Abela – a political maverick who helped found Alternattiva Demokratika – not only lacked any future leadership aspiration but retained a sense of intellectual authenticity. Surely, so far, Abela’s loyalty to Muscat was unquestionable. But there were clear limits to how much Abela could be restrained in any increasingly corporatised political landscape. His departure, which comes after the appointment of Marie Louise Coleiro Preca as President, also paves the way for a more homogenous party moulded in Muscat’s image.  

The problem for Muscat is that anyone from the party’s parliamentary ranks who is elevated to deputy leader may well be seen as Muscat’s anointed successor.    The only alternative to this scenario would be to elect a party veteran with no leadership ambitions as party deputy leader. 

But Labour already has one such deputy leader.  The party has two deputy leaders, one for party and one for parliamentary affairs. This division of roles was introduced by Mintoff as a way of weakening the post and thus quell Lorry Sant’s ambitions to use this post as a stepping stone.  

Louis Grech, who presently serves as deputy leader for parliamentary affairs, is simply too old to aspire to become Muscat’s successor. But anyone interested in the newly vacant post will either be claiming the future leadership of the party or will have to renounce having such ambitions before he or she are elected to the post. 

Muscat’s ten year plan

What makes the election of the next deputy leader extremely sensitive is Muscat’s own declaration that he would be stepping down by 2023. 

“I always said that we have – that I have – a 15-year plan; five years in Opposition and 10 years in government,” the Prime Minister said quite significantly on the current affairs programme ‘Reporter’ in November. 

This means that Labour will get a new leader in seven or eight years’ time. With Muscat’s status as undisputed leader and his highly personalised style of leadership, the transition could be difficult in such a short span of time. 

Muscat’s ten year plan evokes two possible scenarios. Assuming he wins the next election, Muscat could serve two full terms as PM and immediately resign after the 2023 election, irrespective of the result.

But the self-imposed 10-year timetable may well make it unlikely for Muscat to serve two full terms, so he could opt for two shorter, four-year terms, hoping that a third term would give his party a two-year breathing space to elect a new leader. But that would depend on winning an improbable third consecutive election.

Muscat may be more likely to call for an early election in this legislature, seizing  a favourable moment (after the conclusion of the EU presidency next year) to avoid the prospect of an Opposition invigorated by narrowing the gap at the next election.  

Muscat knows that another electoral humiliation would throw the Opposition into total disarray, and his out-of-the-box thinking could solve the party’s leadership dilemma by shortening the legislative term.

Muscat may well be aping Tony Blair, who renounced the leadership after three consecutive electoral victories. Blair and Gordon Brown were said to have sealed a pact well before the former became party leader; he later very reluctantly handed over power after securing a third term. 

Ultimately Muscat’s decisions may be dictated by one overriding consideration: his desire to go down in the history books as a winner who was never beaten in an election.  

Judging by his trust rating and performance on the economy, Muscat may be confident of winning the next election despite growing disillusionment with his government on issues related to good governance. But it is hard to predict the outcome of the election after the next, which may see Labour facing a reinvigorated Nationalist Party. Muscat may well be making his calculations.  

He may step down before the 2021-2023 election if he smells defeat, while staying on to win and hand over power to a new leader immediately after if he smells victory.   

But probably for anyone taking the job of deputy leader now, the best prospect would be a re-edition of the Blair-Brown deal which would see him or her in Castille riding on Muscat’s success in a third consecutive electoral victory. Yet even if Labour wins an unlikely victory after 10 years in power, any such leader would be a lame duck diminished by the near impossibility of winning a fourth consecutive term for his party.  In fact anyone with real leadership ambitions may well keep away from the fray until Labour’s probable defeat in ten years’ time, to run the party from the opposition benches.  

Choosing the anointed one? 

It remains unclear whether Muscat has a successor in mind.  Moreover, if he has someone in mind he may well not advise him to contest as deputy leader now. This is because anyone who is elected deputy leader at this stage would  share Muscat’s legacy and burdens.

The leadership prospects of anyone elected to serve as deputy leader now would depend on Muscat winning not just the next election but also the one after it.  For if Muscat is defeated, his deputy leader will also share the burden of the defeat.   On the other hand if Muscat wins the next two elections, the keys to Castille may be in his or her hands – without even having to lead the party to victory. 

One major disadvantage for any designate leader is that the party cannot predict who the PN leader will be after the next election or the one after.  One may assume that Busuttil will only remain at the helm if he substantially decreases the gap between the two parties at the next election.  But if the PN suffers another heavy defeat, it would be very hard to predict who the next PN leader will be. A change in the PN’s leadership may change the dynamics of confrontation between the two parties, making the anointment of a future Labour leader now, somewhat premature.  

One advantage for Muscat of having a designate leader now is that of not having to face tensions between rival candidates jockeying for the post, during his second term of office, during which his authority may be weaker in the face of a resurgent opposition.

But by having a deputy leader elected now, Muscat may well create grudges from those feeling let down by the party machine. Therefore Muscat may opt for someone like Konrad Mizzi, who is perceived not to have leadership aspirations of his own and who will serve as a “technocrat” in what was previously a political role.

Moreover the long term implications of the contest will depend on whether the post will be contested by rival candidates. If the post is contested, Muscat will be expected to guarantee a fair contest. If it is not contested the risk for Muscat is that the election will be regarded as stage-managed. On the other hand candidates with real leadership ambitions may well bide their time and give this contest a miss. It also remains unclear whether the deputy leader will be elected by rank and file members or by the party delegates.  

Potential candidates

Konrad Mizzi, widely seen as a competent technocrat with no roots in the party’s history, has been touted for the post. Nothing could better symbolize the party’s drift to the right than the passage from Toni Abela to Konrad Mizzi, whose major legacy is that of privatising energy and the health services. Moreover Mizzi’s appointment as deputy leader would send mixed messages on the party’s commitment for good governance. For while Mizzi has a reputation for business-like efficiency, his wife’s appointment to a highly paid government job has exposed Labour to allegations of nepotism.  

Moreover Mizzi’s appointment will transform a role which served as a counterweight to the leader’s power into one which consolidates it. For Mizzi embodies the ideological transformation of Labour from a socialist party to a managerial party with neo liberal inclinations.

A Mizzi election to deputy leader would indicate that Muscat is not interested in grooming the next deputy leader as the party’s future leader. In a way, by backing Mizzi, Muscat may be simply postponing the leadership issue while still offering one of his most competent ministers for the party. For Mizzi clearly lacks the charisma and gravitas of a leader despite being one of the positively rated ministers in Muscat’s cabinet. 

Moreover it is doubtful whether Mizzi, who already heads a super ministry which includes health and energy, has the time required to administer the party.  While Mizzi may put his managerial skills at the party’s disposal, his appointment suggests that the party is no longer seen as a place where ideas are debated and where the government’s ideological choices are questioned. Clearly Mizzi’s election would suggest that the government is taking over the party, which would be relegated to a cheer leading role.  

Other potential candidates for the post could include young, promising lawmakers like Justice Minister Owen Bonnici, who may be closer to the party’s social democratic roots, popular tourism minister Edward Zammit Lewis, and Deborah Schembri, who appeals to switchers, a category whose support Muscat cannot take for granted.

In a bid to pre-empt the PN, the PL may even opt for Miriam Dalli, to forestall a PN led by Roberta Metsola. New promising candidates such as Aaron Farrugia – who are close to Muscat’s political vision – may also set their sights on leadership but this depends on them being elected to parliament at the next election. Still, if these contenders have real leadership aspirations, they may well bide their time and let Mizzi go uncontested on the assumption that he will not contest a future leadership contest.

While Labour may appear to be spoilt for choice, most of the potential candidates still lack the sense of gravitas expected of a future party leader. Ironically the party had more viable options in 2008 when Muscat’s challengers included two future presidents; George Abela and Marie Louise Coleiro Preca and seasoned politicians like Evarist Bartolo. 

Muscat’s centralizing drive

What is sure is that the proposed change to the statute completes Muscat’s drive to centralize the party in a way that his legacy may well outlast him.

In 2008 Muscat was given a blank cheque by his party to render Labour electable after three consecutive defeats. He refashioned it in his own image, jettisoning the post of secretary-general – which creates a rival power base – and appointed his own CEO and brought in outsiders to fill the ranks of an alternative government. In some ways the deputy leader for party affairs represented the last democratically legitimized post to counterbalance this centralizing drive. 

Bolstered by an unprecedented 36,000-vote and a nine-seat majority Muscat retains his trust lead over the PN, which is still reeling from the electoral defeat and the baggage of its recent past.

Muscat says he leads a ‘movement’ that includes persons more loyal to him than to the party which he has eclipsed, without evoking any reaction. 

Apart from Marlene Farrugia’s, who has now left the party, there is little dissent in the party. There is no left-wing minority, although that may yet emerge, as happened with British Labour, with Jeremy Corbyn’s surprise election by rank and file members rebelling against the drift to the right.

By fashioning the party in his own image and eclipsing it, Muscat has made it hard to imagine any successor standing out. With no visible dissent or any real ideological debate, Muscat could opt to appoint a deputy leader who shares his mind frame but lacks his gravitas.  This would mean that the leadership issue would crop up at a later stage.  In that, the bad news for any aspirant would be that the next Labour leader’s term would probably coincide with the end of Labour’s cycle in government and the start of a new one in opposition.